Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is some doubt as to the accuracy of the monthly flock numbers and the question is raised whether it would not be more desirable to post accurate quarterly data in place of unconvincing monthly figures with similar hen data for consecutive months.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the EGG-NEWS Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage Free Report for the month of February 2019 released on March 4^th 2019 documented constant flock sizes in hens producing under the Certified Organic seal and an inconsequential increase in cage-free flocks as compared to the values for October 2018 through January 2019. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters. Average flock production was reduced to 75.5 percent for both categories of non-caged hens (accepting USDA data) although there were differences in placement programs and hen age among preceding months:-

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.

• February 2019 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Down 10.5 Percent from January 2019, Consistent with Seasonal Trends and Moderate Oversupply.

• February 2019 USDA Average Nest-run Production Cost 0.2 Percent Higher than January 2019 at 60.0 cents per dozen.

• February 2019 USDA Benchmark Nest-run Margin Decreased 45.9 Percent from January 2019 to 9.8 cents per dozen

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2019 prices made available by the EIC on March 12^th 2019 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous February 19^th 2019 posting reflecting January 2019 cost data.

COSTS & REVENUE

From January 2019 onwards EIC has used USDA-AMS data for regional corn, soybean and standard feed prices. The basis for corn will be cash payment except for California (10-day delivery) and Louisiana and Oregon (30-day delivery). For soybean meal a similar approach is applied with 20-days for Minnesota. It is noted that January 2019 prices are not directly comparable with December 2018. Month-to-month comparisons in 2019 will be valid.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2018 with 2017:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN 2018 COMPARED WITH 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during 2018 decreased by 2.6 percent in volume but increased 2.6 percent in total value compared to 2017. Unit value was higher by 3.9 percent or 4 cents per dozen for the comparison between 2017 and 2018. The top two importing nations represented 80.6 percent of volume and 76.9 percent of value.

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on February 14^th, the first since the Federal shutdown. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 1.7 and 0.4 percent respectively compared to revised 2018 data. Consistent with this disparity, the benchmark New York price was reduced by 9.4 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, that was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -February 14^th 2019

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.

• January 2019 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Down 12.7 Percent from December 2018, Consistent with Seasonal Trends and Oversupply.

• January 2019 USDA Average Nest-run Production Cost 1.4 Percent Lower than December 2018 at 59.9 cents per dozen.

• January 2019 USDA Benchmark Nest-run Margin Decreased 39.3 Percent from December 2018 to 18.1 cents per dozen

INTRODUCTION.

Due to the Federal shutdown production and export data for January 2019 will be delayed. EGG-NEWS will post the awaited sections when available.

Summary tables for the latest USDA January 2019 prices made available by the EIC on February 19^th 2019 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous January 19^th 2019 posting reflecting December 2018 data.

COSTS & REVENUE

From January 2019 onwards EIC will use USDA-AMS data for regional corn, soybean and standard feed prices. The basis for corn will be cash payment except for California (10-day delivery) and Louisiana and Oregon (30-day delivery). For soybean meal a similar approach will be applied with 20-days for Minnesota. It is noted that January 2019 prices are not directly comparable with December 2018. Month-to-month comparisons in 2019 will be valid.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January-November 2018 with the corresponding period in 2017:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN JANUARY-

NOVEMBER 2018 COMPARED WITH JANUARY-NOVEMBER 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

OVERVIEW

The February 8th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2019 corn and soybean harvests are based on historical yield and harvest data. The corn acreage to be harvested was determined from planting intentions to be 81.7 million acres (81.8 million in 2018). In 2019 soybeans will be harvested from 88.1 million acres (88.3 million acres in 2018).

The USDA projected corn yield to attain 176.4 bushels per acre, (178.9 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was projected at 51.6 bushels per acre (52.1 bushels in 2018).

The February USDA projection of ending stock for corn was reduced by 2.6 percent to 1,735 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans will be 4.7 percent lower at 910 million bushels with minimal effect on CME price quotations subsequent to the noon release of the February WASDE.

It is emphasized that projections are based on the presumption of at least a partial settlement of the trade dispute with China with restoration of exports to that Nation.

• December 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price Down 5 Percent from November, Inconsistent with Seasonal Trends Due to Oversupply.

• USDA Average Nest-run Production Cost Fractionally Higher than November at 60.9 cents per dozen.

• Positive USDA Benchmark Nest-run Margin Decreased 14 Percent from November to 29.0 cents per dozen

INTRODUCTION.

Due to the Federal shutdown some monthly reports from December 26^thwere not issued. EGG-NEWS has assembled available USDA market data to produce the December report. The normal format will be posted when USDA publications resume.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2019 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous December 10^th 2018 posting reflecting November 2018 data.