This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

MAY HIGHLIGHTS

• May 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 304 cents per dozen, down 13 cents per dozen or 4.1 percent from the April 2025 value of 317 cents per dozen. The corresponding May 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $1.35 and $1.90 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 57.0 cents per dozen and 135 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, net imports and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry. Imports have declined sharply during the current quarter.
• May 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 353 cents per dozen, down 95 cents per dozen or 21.2 percent from the April 2025 value of 448 cents per dozen. The corresponding May 2023 and 2024 values were respectively 97 and 198 cents per dozen.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price in 2024 and through Q1 of 2025 due to the high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 36 million birds, (hens and pullets) in 35 complexes or farms through mid-May 2025.
• May 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 74.6 cents per dozen, down 0.8 cents from April 2025 at 75.4 cents per dozen. The May average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.6 cents per dozen down 1.0 cent per dozen from April. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• May 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 229.4 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 241.6 cents per dozen in April 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 408 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• May 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 259.4 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 353.4 cents per dozen in April 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 518 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The April 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be up by 0.7 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 287.2 million compared to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in May together with projected maturation of 23 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• April 2025 pullet chick hatch of 30.1 million was down 0.3 million (-1.0 percent) from March 2025 despite increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.
• April 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 30.6 percent from March 2025 to 285,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.2 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 181,000 cases were dominated by Canada (85 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” nations including the Caribbean (13 percent). With respect to 104,000 case equivalents of egg products, Canada (26 percent of volume), Japan, (10 percent), “Rest of Americas” (37 percent) and Mexico, (6 percent) collectively represented 79 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.          
• According to the USDA Egg Market Overview released on June 6^th, all egg imports (shell, liquid and dry) in May attained 15.2 million dozen shell equivalents compared to exports of all categories of 8.5 million dozen.

(insert US map showing regions)

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR MAY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA May 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on June 17^th 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous May 15^th 2025 release reflecting April 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 280 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA)   82.2% MAY 2025.    82.3*% APRIL 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook May 16^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF MAY 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   APRIL 2025, 6.44     MARCH   2025,  6.50*     

EXPORTS APRIL 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in APRIL 2025 (0.9% shell, 0.5% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting MAY 2025:-

                                                        304.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.6 cents per dozen = 229.4 cents per dozen         (April 2025 comparison:            317.0 cents per dozen – 75.4 cents per dozen  = 241.6 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for MAY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     353.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.6 cents per dozen =  259.4 cents per dozen

April 2025:-               448.0 cents per dozen -  94.6 cents per dozen =  353.4 cents per dozen  

1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Little change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $2.00 to $4.80 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices

(Insert Fig 12  Quarterly CF and organic)

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the June12^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #661, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were understandably unchanged from the May edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted, recent annual crop yields and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and tariff policy influencing exports.

The June 12^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 87.4 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 82.7 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The June 12^th WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 181.0 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The June 12^th USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was reduced 2.8 percent to 1,750 million bushels due to a corresponding reduction in beginning stock. The June USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was unchanged at 295 million bushels.

The June 12^th 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 420 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,025 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged at $310 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required from Commodity Credit Corporation funding if importing nations respond negatively to protective and punitive tariffs imposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the June 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the ongoing La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market years.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the June Report. Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 crop and the March 31^st Prospective Plantings Report, the June WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 15,820 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was retained at 5,900 million bushels. As of 9^th June, 97 percent of the corn crop had been planted with 87 percent emerged. The Food and Seed category was held at 1,385 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was unchanged at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends and onset of summer driving. Projected corn exports were predicted to attain 2,675 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,750 million bushels or 10.2 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the June WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 420 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on June 12^th after the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 439 cents per bushel, 4.5 percent above the USDA June projection.

JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 420 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from May)

SOYBEANS

Production parameters for soybeans were unchanged from the June Report. Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop and an estimated yield of 52.5 bushels per acre albeit with reduced acreage planted, the June WASDE Report projected the soybean harvest to be 4,340 million bushels. As of 9^th June, 90 percent of the soybean crop had been planted with 75 percent emerged. Crush volume was projected at 2,490 million bushels despite increased industry capacity. Projected exports were predicted to be 1,815 million bushels notwithstanding the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 295 million bushels, down 22.3 percent from the December WASDE report reflecting the 2024-2025 season. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE June projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025 harvest was 1,025 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EDT on June 12^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,042 cents per bushel, 1.6 percent above the June USDA projection.

JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,025 cents per bushel (Unchanged from May)

SOYBEAN MEAL

Production parameters for soybean meal were unchanged from the June Report. The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 58.7 million tons, consistent with the soybean crush volume of 2,490 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. According to NOPA crush volumes in March and April were respectively 194.5 and 190.2 million bushels. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,325 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.0 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 16H00 EDT on June 12^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $295 per ton, down 5.1 percent compared to the May WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 JUNE 2025 WASDE #661 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton (Unchanged from May)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the June 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1.551 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher with an increase for India. Foreign barley production is up slightly, reflecting increases for the EU and Argentina that are partly offset by a decline for Syria”.

“Major global trade changes for 2025/26 include larger barley exports for Argentina. For 2024/25, corn exports are lowered for Argentina but raised for the United States and Canada. Corn imports are lowered for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia, and Iraq. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India, and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina.

OILSEEDS:

“Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2025/26 include higher beginning stocks, unchanged production, slightly higher crush, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised on a one-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date. Crush for 2025/26 is raised 0.1 million tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom”.

“With exports unchanged, global ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons to 125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China. Another notable revision is higher palm oil production for Malaysia for 2024/25 and 2025/26 based on an expected recovery after widespread flooding impacted operations earlier in the year”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

On June 18^th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.

The 2025 projection for broiler production is for 47,500 million lbs. (21.591 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.9 lbs. (46.3 kg.) for 2025, up 0.9 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,588 million lbs. (2.995 million metric tons), 2.0 percent below the previous year.

The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,100 million lbs. (21.864 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.6 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.2 percent higher compared to 2025 at 6,670 million lbs. (3.031 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18^th 2025

The June USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2025 including annual production of 4,806 million lbs. (2.185 million metric tons), down 6.2 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.0 lbs. (5.9 kg.) per capita, down proportionately by 5.8 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 405 million lbs. (184,090 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, reduced losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 5,080 million lbs. (2.309 million metric tons) up an optimistic 5.7 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up an unsubstantiated 3.8 percent to 13.5 lbs. (6.1 kg). Exports will be 19.7 percent higher than in 2025 to 435 million lbs. (197,728 metric tons) equivalent to 8.6 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering May 2025, was released on June 2^nd 2025.

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 19.8 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down 0.6 million or 2.9 percent from April 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 4.0 million hens or 3.8 percent from April 2025 to 109.3 million (effectively over two months) despite depopulation of a two large Arizona complexes under common ownership.

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million), but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million), April (1.0 million) and May (3.8 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in May 2025 was down 3.2 percent compared to April 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.2 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.4 percent in May 2025, and with a high average hen-month production of 82.6 percent.  Seasonally placed younger flocks in anticipation of periods of peak demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator for May 30^th the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 287.0 million producing hens on May 1^st comprised:-

Caged, 158.8 million (55.1% of total flock);

Cage Free, 109.3 million (38.0%) with 87% of this population in barns and 6.5% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 19.8 million (6.9%) with 60.6% of this population in barns and 22.7% on free-range and 16.7 on pasture: or other extensive systems

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 to date comprised:-

        Caged flocks, 20.2 million representing 7.0 percent of a nominal 287 million hens    

        Cage-free flocks, 14.8 million representing 5.2 percent

        Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

On June 2^nd USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases (rounded) with the weekly change as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes.              1,345,000.  (+1.3%)

Commodity breaking stock.                            331,100. (+4.0%)

Specialty eggs.                                                  36,400.  (-8.7%)

Certified organic eggs.                                      93,900. (+8.7%)

Cage Free eggs                                                415,000. (+6.1%)                        

*April report listed only White. March report only Brown

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for May 2025 averaged $3.53 per dozen, down $0.95 per dozen (21.2 percent) from $4.48 per dozen in April 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand and supply.

The May 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over 674 stores in only four regions (NW, SW, MW and SC.) was $3.87 per dozen. This compares with 62 stores featuring cage-free Large White in April and reflects more promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with the lower incidence rate of HPAI during March and April but followed by an upsurge in May.

The recorded average wholesale price of $3.53 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $4.13 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised promotional retail price of $3.87 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average negative retail margin of -6.8 percent (+57.2 percent last month for Large C-F white) but with more promotions offered by a larger number of stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

MARCH HIGHLIGHTS

• April 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 317 cents per dozen, down 157 cents per dozen or 33.1 percent from the March 2025 value of 474 cents per dozen. The corresponding April 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $1.35 and $1.90 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen and 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, imports and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry. Imports are expected to decline sharply during Q2 of 2025.
• April 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 448 cents per dozen, down 89 cents per dozen or 16.6 percent from the March 2025 value of 537 cents per dozen. The corresponding April 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $1.07 and $2.12.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price in 2024 and Q1 of 2025 due to the high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with approximately 33 million birds, in 32 complexes or farms during Q1 of 2015.
• April 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 75.4 cents per dozen, up 0.7 cents from March 2025 at 74.7 cents per dozen. The April average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 94.6 cents per dozen up 0.9 cents per dozen from March. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• April 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 241.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 399.7 cents per dozen in March 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• April 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 353.4 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 444.3 cents per dozen in March 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The March 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 3.7 million hens (rounded and a probable undercount) to 286.5 million compared to the revised February 2025 value of 290.2 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• March 2025 pullet chick hatch of 30.3 million was up 0.7 million (+2.4 percent) from February 2025 responding to increased industry demand to replace depopulated flocks.
• March 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 3.1 percent from February 2025 to 212,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.4 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 200,000 cases were dominated by Canada (79 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” nations including the Caribbean (18 percent). With respect to 200,000 case equivalents of egg products, Canada (37 percent of volume), Japan, (19 percent), “Rest of Americas” (10 percent) and Mexico, (3 percent) collectively represented 86 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered. (see companion item on egg exports and imports in this edition)

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR MARCH 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA April 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on May 15^th 2025. Data is are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous April 9^th 2025 release reflecting March 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024

Based on a nominal denominator of 280 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)  82.5% APRIL 2025.  82.9*% MARCH 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook April 16^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF APRIL 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) MARCH 2025, 6.41 FEBRUARY 2025, 6.02*

EXPORTS MARCH 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.0 percent of National production in MARCH 2025 (1.0% shell, 1.0% products).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting APRIL 2025:-

317.0 cents per dozen¹- 75.4 cents per dozen =241.6 cents per dozen (March 2025 comparison: 474.0 cents per dozen – 74.7 cents per dozen = 399.7 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for APRIL 2025:-

Cage-Free brown 448.0 cents per dozen¹- 94.6 cents per dozen = 353.4 cents per dozen

March 2025:- 537.0 cents per dozen - 93.7 cents per dozen = 443.3 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.
2. Negotiated price, loose. Range $4.50 to $8.00 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

The volume of exports of shell eggs is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor.

USDA-FAS data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING JANUARY-MARCH 2024 COMPARED WITH 2024

Due to a deficiency in domestic supply relative to demand, importation during January through March 2025 amounted to 25.5 million shell-equivalent dozens. Monthly totals amounted to 2.1 million in January, 11.5 million in February and 11.9 million in March. For the quarter, imports expressed as a percentage of the total, comprised shell eggs, 58.6; egg liquids, 9.8 and dried egg, 31.6. Total egg imports during calendar 2025 are projected by the USDA to attain 32 million dozen shell equivalents suggesting restoration of supply as 78 percent of the calculated total was imported during the first quarter of 2025. Naturally if HPAI emerges in the fall flock depopulation will resume and the U.S. will revert to the situation that prevailed in late 2024 extending into 2025.

During April 2025 Brazil claimed to have exported 3.9 million dozen eggs to the U.S. valued at $6.3 million representing an extremely low FOB unit price of $1.57 per dozen.

Given the export of 35.8 million dozen shell equivalents over the first quarter of 2025 net exports attained 10.3 million dozen shell equivalents.

The trade situation will be influenced during the second quarter of 2025 if tariffs are imposed by the U.S. with the inevitability of reciprocal action by importing nations. Since supply will hopefully improve in volume, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with more competitive prices.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the May12^thWorld Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #660, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were updated from previous edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted, recent annual crop yields and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and tariff policy influencing exports.

The May 12^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 87.4 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 82.7 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The May WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 181.0 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The May USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was 2024 to 1,800 million bushels. The May USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was 295 million bushels.

The May 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 420 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,025 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the May 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market year.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 15,820 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,900 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,385 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were predicted to attain 2,675 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,800 million bushels or 10.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the May WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 420 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on March 13^th after the noon release of the WASDE the previous day, the CME spot price for corn was 440 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent from the USDA May projection.

MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 420 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop and an estimated yield of 52.5 bushels per acre but with reduced acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,340 million bushels harvested. Crush volume was projected at 2,490 million bushels despite increased industry capacity. Projected exports were predicted to be 1,815 million bushels notwithstanding the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 295 million bushels, down 22.3 percent from the December WASDE report reflecting the 2024-2025 season. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE May projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025 harvest was 1,025 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on May 13^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,072 cents per bushel, 4.6 percent above the May USDA projection.

May 2025 WASDE #660 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,025 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 58.7 million tons, consistent with the soybean crush volume of 2,490 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,325 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.0 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 13H00 EDT on February 13^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $293 per ton, down 5.5 percent compared to the May WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the May 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“The 2025/26 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and consumption and a decline in ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drive an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosts production prospects for Ukraine. For Brazil, expansion in corn area drives larger crop prospects. World barley, sorghum, millet, mixed grain, and rye production are forecast higher than a year ago, while oat production is down slightly”.

“World corn consumption is expected to rise two percent to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports are forecast to rise one percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting are declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey”.

“Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are down 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. For 2025/26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the United States partly offset by a decline for Brazil.

For China, total coarse grain imports for 2025/26 are forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 6.5 million from a year ago but below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. Corn imports are projected up 2.0 million tons to 10.0 million, while sorghum is up 4.0 million to 8.5 million. Barley imports are up 0.5 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 soybean crush is growing three percent to 366.5 million tons, with most of the growth for China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Overall, the highest growth in oilseed meal exports is soybean meal for the United States and Argentina and sunflower seed meal for Ukraine. Global vegetable oil exports are rising three percent on higher palm oil exports for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand and higher sunflower seed oil exports for Ukraine and Turkey. Global vegetable oil stocks are flat with the prior year”.

“Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are expected to increase four percent to 188.4 million tons from 2024/25. Exports of major South American soybean-producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) are expected to rise 8.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are increased for Argentina on higher supplies in neighboring countries and in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria. Soybean imports for China are up 4 million tons the revised 2024/25 import forecast at 112 million. Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering April 2025, was released on May 2^nd 2025.

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from March 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 0.1 million hens or 0.1 percent from March 2025 to 105.3 million.

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million) but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in April 2025 was down 0.1 percent compared to March 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.2 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was down 0.1 percent percent in April 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.9 percent. Seasonally placed younger flocks in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator for April 30^th the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 283 million producing hens on April 1^st comprised:-

Caged, 157.3 million (55.7%);

Cage Free, 105.3 million (37.1%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20.4 million (7.2%) with 90% in barns and 5.0% each on free-range and pasture:

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 to date comprised:-

Caged flocks, 20.3 million representing 7.1 percent of nominal hens in production

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

*Validity of this unchanged population questioned

On May 5^th USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases with the weekly change as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

*March report listed only Brown, April report listed only White. All regions listed the same price

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for April 2025 averaged $4.48 per dozen, down $0.89 per dozen (16.6 percent) from $5.37 per dozen in March 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply.

The April 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW and SC.) was $7.99 per dozen. This compares with 153 stores offering cage-free Large Brown in March and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with the high incidence rate of HPAI during January and February followed by a decline.

The recorded average wholesale price of $4.48 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $5.08 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised promotional retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail margin of 57.2 percent (-16.4 percent last month for Large C-F brown) but with few promotions offered by limited number of stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

MARCH HIGHLIGHTS

• March 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 474 cents per dozen, down 266 cents per dozen or 35.9 percent from the February 2025 value of 740 cents per dozen. The corresponding March 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $2.71 and $1.87 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with to 33 million birds, in 32 complexes or farms year to date.
• March 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 74.7 cents per dozen, down 1.4 cents from February 2025 at 76.1 cents per dozen. The March average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.7 cents per dozen down 1.6 cents per dozen from February. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• March 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 399.3 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 663.9 cents per dozen in February 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• March 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 444.3 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 820.7 cents per dozen in February 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The February 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.5 million hens (rounded and a probable undercount) to 289.5 million compared to the revised January 2025 value of 299.0 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• February 2025 pullet chick hatch of 27.9 million was down 0.4 million (-1.4 percent) from January 2025 despite increased industry requirements to replace depopulated flocks.
• February 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 15.2 percent from January 2025 to 425,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.6 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 259,000 cases were dominated by Canada (84 percent of volume) and the “Rest of Americas” nations including the Caribbean (13 percent). With respect to 166,000 case equivalents of egg products, Canada (35 percent of volume), Japan, (27 percent), Rest of Americas (15 percent) and Mexico, (9 percent) collectively represented 86 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR MARCH 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA March 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on April 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous March 7^th 2025 release reflecting February 2025 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024

Based on a nominal denominator of 280 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 82.0% FEBRUARY 2025. 82.6% MARCH 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook March 17^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF MARCH 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) FEBRUARY 2025 5.99 JANUARY 2025, 6.18*

EXPORTS FEBRUARY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.1 percent of National production in FEBRUARY 2025 (1.3% shell, 0.7% products).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting MARCH 2025:-

474.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.7 cents per dozen = 399.3 cents per dozen (February 2025 comparison: 740.0 cents per dozen – 76.1 cents per dozen = 663.9 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for MARCH 2025:-

Cage-Free brown 537.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.7 cents per dozen = 443.3 cents per dozen

February 2025:- 916.0 cents per dozen - 95.3 cents per dozen = 820.7 cents per dozen

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

(Insert Fig 12 Quarterly CF and organic)

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continued through 2025 to date but with lower intensity in March. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering March 2025, released on April 1^st 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down 0.1 million from February 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.7 million hens or 1.6 percent from February 2025 to 105.4 million, with negligible flock depopulation of laying hens but with loss of pullets during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in March 2025 was up 0.1 percent compared to February 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.3 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.1 percent in March 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 83.0 percent, up from 82.7 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously, especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 285 million hens on March 1^st was:-

Caged, 159 million (55.9% of 285 million hens);

Cage Free, 105 million (37.0%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20 million (7.2%) with 91% in barns and 4.5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Losses during Q1 of 2025 comprised:

Caged flocks, 19.3 million representing 6.8 percent of hen population

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, 0.1 percent

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for March 2025 averaged $5.37 per dozen, down 30.8 percent from $7.77 per dozen in February 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The March 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only three regions (NW, SW and SC.) was $4.99 per dozen, apparently down 37.5 percent or $3.80 per dozen from February 2025 based on 153 stores. This compares with 62 stores in February and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the incidence rate of HPAI during January and February.

The recorded average wholesale price of $5.37 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $5.97 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average three-region advertised promotional retail price of $4.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of -16.4 percent (-4.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• February 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 740 cents per dozen, up 156 cents per dozen or 27.1 percent from the January 2025 value of 582 cents per dozen. The corresponding February 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $2.11 and $1.33 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with to 31 million birds in 31 complexes or farms year to date.
• February 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was unchanged from January 2025 at 76.1 cents per dozen. The February average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be unchanged at 95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 663.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 505.9 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 820.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 713.7 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The January 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 10.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 297.8 million compared to the revised December 2024 value of 308.2 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• January 2025 pullet chick hatch of 28.1 million was up 1.5 million (+5.6 percent) from December 2024 reflecting increased industry demand for replacements of depopulated flocks.
• January 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 15.9 percent from December 2024 to 369,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.9 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 239,000 cases were dominated by Canada (84 percent of volume) and the Caribbean nations (15 percent). With respect to 130,000 case equivalents of egg products, Japan, (31 percent of volume), Canada, (25 percent) and Mexico, (18 percent) collectively represented 81 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

                      (insert US map showing regions)

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR FEBRUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on March 7^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous February 10^th 2025 release reflecting January 2025 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 282 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

(insert Fig 10 leading states)

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.7%* January 2025.    82.3% January 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook February 18^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF February 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)   December  2024, 6.08*     January   2025,  5.87       

EXPORTS JANUARY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.8 percent of National production in JANUARY 2025 (1.1% shell, 0.6% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting FEBRUARY 2025:-

                                                         740.0 cents per dozen¹- 76.1 cents per dozen = 663.9 cents per dozen         (January 2025 comparison:         582.0 cents per dozen – 76.1 cents per dozen  = 505.9 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price          

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

      (insert Fig 2 Farm egg value, Fig 3 Consumer retail, Fig 4 Estimated quarterly)

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for FEBRUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     916.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.3 cents per dozen =  820.7 cents per dozen

January 2025:-         809.0 cents per dozen -  95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen  

1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as required through the fourth quarter of 2024 and has continued through 2025 to date as a result of HPAI. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering February 2025, released on March 3^rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.5 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 0.1 million from January 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.7 million hens or 2.7 percent from January 2025 to 103.7 million, despite extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in February 2025 was up 1.1 percent compared to January 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.0 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.3 percent in February 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.7 percent, up from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of flocks according to housing system among the total of 292 million hens on

February 1^st was:-

Caged, 169 million (57.2% of 292 million hens on February 1^st.);

Cage Free, 102 million (34.9%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 21 million (7.2%) with 5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for February 2025 averaged $7.74 per dozen, up 6.9 percent from $7.24 per dozen in January 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The February 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW & SC.) was $7.99 per dozen, apparently up $5.11 per dozen from January 2025 based on 62 stores. This compares with 133 stores in January and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI.

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.77 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $8.37 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 4.8 percent (-172.4 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

The February 11^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10^th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10^th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At market close on February 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10^th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 29th 2025.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 8.3 percent. Medium size was up a substantial 30.8 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on January 24^th was $6.55 per dozen up $0.68 per dozen (+11.6 percent) from $5.88 last week. This value was approximately $4.05 above the 3-year average of 2.50 per dozen and $4.31 above the corresponding week in 2024 at $2.24 per dozen. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 7.7 percent higher and with the prospect of an increase during the coming week based on the trend of daily increases.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 5.0 percent to $3.18 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 8.4 percent to $3.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.
• This past week shell egg inventory was down 2.0 percent, compared to a fall of 0.3 percent during the previous week. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes sustained consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through February based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the unusual January surge in price intensified by ongoing 2025 losses due to HPAI. The national flock is down by a conservative estimate of 24 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress)
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Losses during 2024 attained approximately 40 million hens with the fall-winter wave in progress and with 2.6 million hens depopulated among four states in January 2025 to date.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with progressively increasing prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now far less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by 3.1 percent overall this past week to 1.43 million cases incorporating a 7.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 1.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend or major storm as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past two months.
• The U.S. egg-production industry experienced the loss of 40 million hens during 2024 together with over 4 million replacement pullets. Ongoing reports of HPAI diagnoses in backyard and non-commercial flocks (‘non-WOAH reportable’) and isolation from free-living domestic non-migratory birds suggests a continuation of outbreaks until waterfowl settle into their winter habitat. Not even the most stringent biosecurity can absolutely prevent introduction of avian influenza virus on dust particles entrained in air entering complexes and houses with negative ventilation. This predicates the limited and strategic application of H5 vaccine in high-risk areas. Over 950 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in sixteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 700 herds were diagnosed in California and 65 in Colorado over the past five months with the high incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On January 29^th the stated total flock of 300.5 million, was down by 1.0 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets per week that entered production to satisfy current demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Missouri, Ohio and California, and considering USDA-APHIS reports of depopulation, it is estimated that the total egg-producing flock at the end of January 2025 is approximately 26 million hens lower (-8.0 percent) than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on January 27^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.3 percent from last week to $7.04 per dozen. Large size was up 9.3 percent to $7.02 per dozen. Mediums were up 30.8 percent to $5.73 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the present week and extending through February

The stock of Medium size was down 5.4 percent, (down 13.6 percent in the Southwest Region but up 12.8 percent in the Southeast). The inventory of Small size was down 5.5 percent over the past week (South Central up 130 percent but Southwest down 45.8 percent). This indicates differences in timing of chick placements and regional demand. Surviving pullets placed in early September 2024 for mid-January 2025 production are now moving from Medium to Large. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.4 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for December 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 60 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response).

Currently producers of generic shell eggs are operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The January 27^th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 61.0 percent to $6.67 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $6.48 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $6.66 per dozen.

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether hens among complexes and farms depopulated during January to date, have been accounted for. Depletion of large complexes in Missouri and Ohio have occurred this past week. Accurate and updated data should be posted during the current winter outbreaks, given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Current values for the populations of the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting January 29^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 0.9 million to 295.1 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This is consistent with sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing and started pullets.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on January 29^th 2025 was 1.0 million lower to 300.5 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 5.4 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens are resuming production. Given the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 26 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes incident cases of HPAI in the fall and winter wave that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 8.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

• Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on January 27^th 2024 was 2.315 million lbs. (1,052 metric tons), and 0.1 percent down from 2.317 million lbs. on January 1^st 2025 and unchanged from last week. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December 2024.
• The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on January 24^th 2024 documented a total stock of 18.5 million pounds (8,403 metric tons) of frozen egg products on December 31^st This quantity was down 38.0 percent from the December 31^st 2023 value of 29.8 million pounds. The December 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 6.9 percent from the previous month ending November 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
• Compared to December 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 43.8 percent to 1.56 million lbs. on December 31^st
• Compared to December 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 60.5 percent to 378,000 lbs. on December 31^st
• A total of 89.5 percent (16.55 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.9 percent) and “Unclassified” (44.6 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective January 28^th 2024 was down 3.1 percent from the previous week, to 1,431,000 million cases. The total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.43 million cases, (1.48 million last week; Down 45,600 cases).

Four USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 2.7 percent from the previous week to 410,400 cases
• The Southeast Region was up 1.8 percent to 266,400 cases
• The South Central Region was down 9.8 percent to 165,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was up 3.4 percent to 163,700 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 1.6 percent to 100,400 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 5.2 percent to 39,200 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,431,000 cases (1,476,600 cases last week), down 3.1 percent, of which 80.1 percent were shell eggs (79.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 7.3 percent to 285,400 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 2.0 percent attaining 1,145,600 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 5.0 percent last week and checks were up 8.4 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (46.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.3 percent) compared to a rise of 5.7 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 45.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On January 27^th 2025 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 442,800 cases (down 0.8 percent from last week at 446,400 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down a substantial 25.1 percent to 29,100 cases on promotion. (was down 19.6% to 38,800 cases)
• Certified Organic, down 5.1 percent to 65,400 cases. (was down 3.5% to 68,900 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 2.7 percent to 348,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 339,200 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

The industry requires a study on all aspects that influence pricing including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on January 24^th 2025 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices representing features as reported January 24^th for the previous week of January 17^th do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs:-

Large, in cartons generic white: None No comparison ($2.24)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.50 Down 5.3% ($2.64)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $6.49 Up 7.1% ($6.06)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.97 Unchanged ($8.97)

National loose, (FOB dock): $6.55 Up 11.4% ($5.88)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $7.24 Up 7.7% ($6.72)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported on January 24^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $6.48 Up 62.0% ($4.00)

Northeast $6.56 Up 62.3% ($4.04)

Southeast $6.62 Up 60.3% ($4.13)

South Central $4.66 Up 60.1% ($4.16)

Combined $6.57 Up 61.0% ($4.08)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on January 2^nd 2025, the number of certified organic hens in December was unchanged from November 2024 at 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined, offset by December flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in December 2024 was down 5.6 million hens (5.3 percent) from November 2024 to 100.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in December 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 100.0 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 120.3 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 36.9 percent of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 39.9 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 301.5 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending January 25^th 2025 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on January 29^th 2024 was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,317,144 cases, (1,321,941 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (52.7 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly higher proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.9 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.8 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks were higher this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 7.3 percent this past week to 285,400 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2024 in-line breakers processed 51.1 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will prevail over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting December 2024, yield from 5,386,714 cases (7,66,144 cases in November) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period December 1^st through December 28^th 2024. Edible yield was 39.6 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 63.2; white, 22.1; yolk, 11.2; dried, 3.4.

All eggs broken during 2024 attained 72.88 million cases, 4.8 percent less than in 2023. Eggs broken in 2025 to date amounted to 5.21 million cases, 8.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty with high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 5.0 percent this past week to $3.18 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.35 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on January 27^th. The price of checks was up 8.4 percent to an average of $3.22 per dozen over the most frequent range of $3.21 to $3.23 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated January 27^th confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.3 percent from last week and Medium size was up 30.8 percent from the previous week. A 2.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price on January 27^th, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 8.6 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $7.06 ($6.50), (estimated by proportion): L. $7.04 ($6.48): M. $5.73 ($4.38)

The 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, on January 27^th (with the previous week in parentheses) was unchanged from last week. The high price is attributed to depletion of flocks due to HPAI. In January 2024 the USDA documented a hen population of 9.1 million declining to 7.8 million in July and 4.4 million at the end of December 2024. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states.

1. $8.99 ($8.99); L. $8.97 ($8.97); M. $7.60 ($7.60)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on January 29^th 2025 was up 1.7 points from the last weekly report to +5.5 with a 3.1 percent decrease in total inventory and a 2.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

COMMENTS

USDA reported the depopulation of 3.9 million laying hens as a result of HPAI this past week. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in five states (CT, MA, VT, IL and OR) confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. Cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in AR, GA, MO and VA, amounting to 0.2 million this past week. Losses among breeder and growing turkeys in MN, OH, MO and IN amounted to 0.5 million this past week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec.

Approximate losses reported in 2024 include:-

• 40 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 4 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
• 0 million broilers with breeders
• 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
• 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

Updated January 2025 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

On January16^th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with an updated projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 16^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2024 was adjusted downward by 0.3 percent from the December 2024 Report to 7,728 million dozen This will be 1.7 percent less than in 2023 due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through December with incident cases occurring during January 2025. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 272.9 eggs down 6.4 eggs (-2.3 percent) from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 121 cents to 303 cents per dozen above 2023.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th 2023. Midwest Large wholesale price was restored during May 2024 and despite substantial declines during late August through September, attained $6.06 per dozen for Midwest Large, in cartons, delivered to DCs on January 17^th 2024. The Midwest wholesale Large value should be compared to the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run December 2024 value of 74.4 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.34 cents per dozen (rounded).

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 0.5 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and among some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA¹ to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal producing flock of 326 million hens before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include consumer demand influenced by high shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter migratory season anticipated to end within weeks. Resumption of losses is anticipated in late spring months.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.2 percent of total production over the first eleven months of 2024 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices.

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 7,820 million dozen, up an optimistic 1.2 percent from 2024. Projected consumption of 276 eggs per capita, would be a more realistic 3 eggs or 1.1 percent compared to the December projection of  a 2.9 percent (8 egg) increase over 2024, as documented in the December USDA report. This forecast probably presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets, both unrealistic assumptions. The increase, if it were to transpire would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.94 per dozen compared to the 2024 value.

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

According to USDA data over the first eleven months of 2024, 75.2 million dozen shell-eggs were exported valued at $176 million. Volume was 7.8 percent lower but value was 19.0 percent higher compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was $2.34 per dozen, up 29.2 from the equivalent months in 2023.

Over the first eleven months of 2024, 23,947 metric tons of egg products were exported valued at $106 million. Volume and value were respectively 15.0 and 12.3 percent lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was 31.9 percent higher to $4,619 per metric ton on average for all product forms.

Updated January 2024 USDA data² is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses. Recovery over entire 2025 considered unrealistic

Sources:  1. USDA Chickens and Eggs  released January 21^st 2025

                2. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16^th 2025

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
• December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.

• The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
• November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on September 30^th 2024, documented storage of corn and soybeans, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of the two major ingredients as Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Energy, Economy and determined by USD-NASS, relevant to the cost of poultry production were:-

“Old crop corn stocks on hand as of September 1^st 2024 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Of the total corn stocks, 780 million bushels (44 percent were stored on farms), up 29 percent from last year”. This was down from 61 percent three months ago indicating a sell-off despite declining prices to realize income and make room for the 2024 harvest. “Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, were up 30 percent from a year ago. The June-August 2024 indicated disappearance was 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same period a year earlier”.

“Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1^st 2024 totaled 342 million bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 111 million bushels,  (32 percent) up 54 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 231 million bushels, were up 20 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2024 totaled 628 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

The weekly Economy, Commodity and Energy Report posted each week and a summary of the WASDE #652 released on September 12^th is retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released October 31^st posted September prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

September Prices Received Index, down 2.9 percent from August

 The USDA ERS summarized prices as follows:-“The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 122.6, decreased 2.9 percent from August and 7.1 percent from September 2022. At 113.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.2 percent from last month and 11 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.1, decreased 0.9 percent from August, and 2.6 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and lettuce during September, but higher prices for broilers, milk, grapes, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased marketing of cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, dry beans, and apples”.

September Prices Paid Index, Up 0.1 Percent from August

“The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from August 2023 but unchanged from September 2022. Higher prices in September for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feed grains, complete feeds, concentrates, and hay & forages”.

Corn farmers received $5.21 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $5.73 per bushel in August 2023, down 9.1 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $7.09 per bushel

Soybean farmers received $13.20 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $14.10 per bushel in August 2023, down 6.8 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $14.20 per bushel

The September 2023 egg price received by farmers was $ 1.22 per dozen for table eggs lower than $1.35 per dozen in August 2023 and compared to $2.65 per dozen in September 2022. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.

The June 30^th 2023 Planted Acreage report documented the respective areas planted to corn and soybeans, the two commodities of relevance to the poultry industry. The USDA confirmed:-

Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 94.1 million acres, up six percent or 5.52 million acres from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 86.3 million acres, is up nine percent from last year.

Soybean-planted area for 2023 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down five percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 21 of the 29 estimating States.

Together with the Grain Stocks report the Planted Acreage data moved the market for corn and soybeans by about five percent but in contrasting directions.

For corn the acreage was above the most optimistic projection although offset by a lower stock. At 14H30 on the CME after the release of the two USDA reports, corn was down 25 cents per bushel to 556 cents for July delivery and for September, corn was down 34 cents per bushel to 489 cents.

For soybeans the reduced acreage and consequently lower ending stocks was bullish for the new crop. At 14H30 CME soybeans were up 75 cents per bushel to 1,558 cents for July delivery and for September the soybean price was up 73 cents per bushel to 1,354 cents.

According to USDA economists, retail egg prices increased by 8.5 percent in January 2023, approximately 70.1 percent above January 2022.  The USDA-ERS now predicts that egg prices will increase by 37.8 percent in 2023 but with a wide range of 18.3 to 62.3 percent attributed to volatility.  Concurrently the USDA-ERS predicted a 4.7 percent increase in the price of meats, 7.2 percent for dairy products and 12.8 percent for cereals and bakery products.

Wholesale farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 with a wide prediction interval of -32.6 to 76.1 percent.  Egg prices are extremely volatile, complicating reliable predictions.

EGG-NEWS will monitor weekly USDA wholesale prices by region and average retail prices to document retail margins.