The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated October 17 th 2018 forecast of egg production unchanged from the previous September 18th report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption for 2019 were increased by 1.7 and 0.5 percent respectively over 2018. Consistent with this disparity the benchmark New York price was reduced by 12.2 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below:

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - September 18th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January-August 2018 with the corresponding period in 2017:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN JANUARY-

AUGUST 2018 COMPARED WITH JANUARY-AUGUST 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

Corn and soybean crops will be the second largest ever but will be harvested during a time of uncertainty regarding previously projected, anticipated and actual export volumes. The USDA projections of ending stocks and hence prices for corn and soybeans take into account current announced tariffs on U.S. products but do not reflect predicted or threatened tariffs, intensification or unlikely resolution of trade conflicts.

CORN

The projection of the corn harvest was raised 0.3 percent from the September WASDE Report to 14,778 million bushels consistent with the reality that 93 percent of the crop is mature and 34 percent has been harvested. The projection for 2018 can be compared to the 2017 harvest of 14,577 million bushels and is down only 2.4 percent from the 2016 record harvest of 15,148 million bushels. The "Ethanol and Byproducts" category was retained at 5,650 m. bushels and exports were raised 75 m bushels to 2,475 million bushels. "Feed and Residual" was lowered by 25 m. bushels to 5,550 million bushels. Ending stocks will increase 2.2 percent to 1,813 m. bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price was unchanged over a range to 300 to 400 cents per bushel. At 13H00 on October 11th CME quotations for December 2018 and March 2019 corn were 397 cents and 381 cents per bushel respectively.

• September 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price down 14.3 Percent from August Consistent with Seasonal Trends.

• Production Cost Down 2.1 Percent (60.1 Cents per dozen, September) with Feed Cost Lower by 3.4 Percent.

• Positive Nest-run Margin Decreased 46.2 percent from August to 12.7 Cents per Dozen

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA September 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on October 8th are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous September 11th 2018 posting reflecting August 2018 data.

COSTS & REVENUE

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is some doubt as to the accuracy of the monthly flock numbers and the question is raised whether it would be more desirable to post accurate quarterly data in place of erratic monthly figures.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the EGG-NEWS Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage Free Report for the month of September 2018 released on October 1st 2018 documented a 0.6 percent increase in hens producing under the Certified Organic seal and a 5.9 percent increase in cage-free flocks as compared to August 2018. Organic egg production was up 0.7 percent from August. Cage-free egg production was higher by 6.3 percent compared to the previous month. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters. Average flock production was increased to 75.3 percent for both categories of cage-free eggs (accepting USDA data):-

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated September 18 th 2018 forecast of egg production unchanged from the previous August 16th report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 1.7 and 0.8 percent respectively over 2018. Consistent with this disparity the benchmark New York price was reduced by 13.2 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015 which was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below.

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - September 18th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.

OVERVIEW

The September 13th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests are based on actual planting data, crop progress with monitoring by "scouts", long-range weather forecasts and historical records. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were retained from the July-August projections at 81.8 million acres (83.1 million in 2017) and 88.9 million acres, (89.5 million acres in 2017) respectively.

The USDA raised corn yield by 1.6 percent to 181.3 bushels per acre (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was raised 2.3 percent to 52.8 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017).

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January-July 2018 with the corresponding period in 2017:-

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN JANUARY-

JULY 2018 COMPARED WITH JANUARY-JULY 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

• August 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price down 10.2 Percent from July Consistent with Seasonal Trends.

• Production Cost Down 0.1 Percent (61.4 Cents per dozen, August) with Feed Cost Lower by 0.2 Percent.

• Positive Nest-run Margin Decreased 26.7 percent from July to 23.6 Cents per Dozen

   

  INTRODUCTION.

  Summary tables for the latest USDA August 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on September 11th are arranged, summarized, tabulated and discussed in comparison with values from the previous August 11th 2018 posting reflecting July 2018 data.