OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

The February 11^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10^th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10^th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At market close on February 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10^th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)