Less there be any questions as to the geographic distribution of H5 avian influenza, recent reports to the World Organization of Animal Health confirm outbreaks on four continents:

• India – With extensive and obviously under-reported outbreaks in Maharashtra State and other incidents with “massive mortality” incorrectly diagnosed as “Newcastle disease”.

• South Korea – Recording the 35^th outbreak involving depopulation of 1.5 million birds.

• Japan – Has reported 50 cases over the past three months leading to the loss of 5.0 million birds.

• The E.U. –Italy has depopulated 16 farms. In other E.U nations outbreaks in both backyard and commercial flocks in addition to free-living birds have been reported by Poland, Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Albania, the Netherlands and Slovakia.  The U.K. has reported 33 cases with 1.8 million birds depopulated over the past three months.

• Iceland and Greenland have diagnosed H5N5 in migratory marine birds following previous transatlantic east to west extension of H5 infection and now with evident emergence of this strain in the Maritime Provinces of Canada. This has implications for the Atlantic Flyway southward into the U.S.

•  Australia – Currently is dealing with a reoccurrence of H7 avian influenza introduced by migratory birds.

1.0 Vaccination against HPAI. An alternative perspective for control.

• APHIS has to emerge from their bubble of self-deception and recognize that

           endemic HPAI cannot be prevented and controlled by biosecurity alone, 

          however stringent. Vaccination as an adjunct to current control measures will   

          be required

• APHIS must urgently develop a plan of action to allow vaccination of pullets and

            laying flocks in high-risk areas with appropriate monitoring

• Notwithstanding introduction of a policy to allow vaccination, losses will continue until adequate levels of immunity are achieved. It is noted that spring migration of waterfowl will commence in a few weeks so that any current delays in implementing protective vaccination will prolong the epornitic.

• As flocks are progressively vaccinated, APHIS and state policy should be directed to early detection of emerging infection with imposition of absolute quarantine with breaking and pasteurization of eggs. Flocks would not be depopulated but with a proportion, comprising susceptible hens dying. Flocks would be monitored for shedding that should cease after three weeks, allowing resumption of marketing, subject to demonstrating freedom from viral shedding.

•  If vaccination is allowed and deployed, indemnity would cease after a period of transition. Producers would benefit from having productive albeit smaller flocks in the event of infection.

2.0   Observations on current industry concerns

• Suspending cage-free mandates will have no short-term appreciable effect on increasing supply and therefore will not reduce the national average shelf price of shell eggs.

• APHIS must expedite approval of inactivated H5N2 (DIVA) oil-emulsion vaccines available from reputable multinational and U.S. manufacturers. Delay will prolong the ongoing epornitic

• Available human H5N1 vaccine should be administered to all who come into contact with live poultry and especially those involved in depopulation of infected flocks. Concurrently seasonal vaccination against prevailing human influenza strains should be encouraged to avert possible recombinant events

• Live bird markets are a danger to human and poultry populations with respect to zoonotic infection. Only a few benefit but the entire population bears the risk of mutation of avian viruses that may have potential catastrophic outcomes.

• Dismissal of critical staff engaged in planning or executing control measures, laboratory diagnosis or applied epidemiological investigations should be reversed. Recent Federal personnel action in health agencies has been analogous to throwing out the baby with the bathwater!

Farm Action, a nonprofit claiming to advocate for farmers, ranchers and independent processors has become involved in the pricing of eggs. The organization has again, addressed requests to the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice to investigate alleged “monopolization and anticompetitive coordination by large egg producers”.  Previously, Farm Action requested action under Section 6 (b) of the Federal Trade Commission Act to investigate price setting systems and marketing practices in the egg industry. No official action was taken, presumably following a review of available facts that refuted the allegations by Farm Action.

Although the nonprofit recognizes the relationship between high egg prices and extensive flock depopulation as a result of highly pathogenic avian influenza, the organization downplays the impact of the disease with the loss of close to 30 million hens in 2025 to date.  In a month-to-month comparison using 2021 as the base prior to the emergence of the current epornitic, it is claimed that losses in the egg producing flock attained five percent during 2024.  This figure is possibly understated given that USDA has in all probability over-counted flock size. The current producing hen population estimated by the USDA is 293 million or 23 million less than the pre-HPAI population corresponding to a 7.3 percent shortfall.

The letter to the Federal Trade Commission did not consider possible reasons for the extreme price elasticity of eggs. These may relate to distortions created by the prevailing price discovery system that amplifies both the upward and downward trajectory in price resulting from any disturbance in the balance between supply and demand. A second factor may be the magnitude of supply contracts entered into between producers and large retailers that may involve more than half the shell eggs produced. This would result in fluctuation in price as the available but constrained supply of eggs responds to industrial and consumer demand.

Farm Action suggests monopolization and anticompetitive coordination among the dominant firms in the egg supply chain as a reason for high egg prices.  The organization specifically cites the position of Cal-Maine Foods responsible for less than 20 percent of national production.  If any oligopoly exists in the chain extending from producers to consumers, it is more likely to be at the level of large retailers.  Farm Action maintains that egg producers have deliberately restricted production to maintain high prices.  This is a fallacy unsupported by available data.  The number of hens in production is determined by the supply of day old pullet chicks, livability of rearing and production flocks, molting options and flock depletion. Availability of commercial level chicks depends on the size of parent flocks operated by breeders through their parent multiplier flocks. In 2022 the parent level flock averaged 2.9 million hens decreasing to 2.5 million in 2023 and 2024 with greater efficiency. As a result of the increased demand following the onset of avian influenza the parent hen population increased marginally in 2025 to 2.6 million. It is estimated that this complement of hens using standard parameters, would result in the production of 26.0 million-day-old pullet chicks each month.  This theoretical volume corresponds to the actual monthly production of approximately 27-million day-old pullet chicks in 2024. Cal-Maine is fairly unique in that it operates its own parent flocks capable of providing for the replacement requirements of the company. Their parent-level hens are included in the national average as published by the USDA.

 If Cal-Maine intended to restrict egg production, the question arises as why it expended in excess of $250 million over three years in expansion and conversion to cage-free housing. In 2024 Cal-Maine purchased a broiler production complex from Tyson Foods that was converted to cage-free table egg production. The level of investment by Cal-Maine foods was probably matched by other progressive producers operating flocks in complexes ranging in size from 500,000 to 3 million hens, based on the sale of housing and other installations for upgrades and new complexes by Rose Acre Farms, Herbruck’s Poultry Ranch, Hickman’s Family Farms, Opal Foods, Hillandale Farms and MPS among others.

Farm Action alleges that high prices are in part due to the absorption of competitors by larger producers.  There are a number of reasons why egg producers are acquired.  In some cases, there is insufficient capital to replace obsolete equipment or to convert from conventional cages to alternative housing systems. These smaller farms are acquired by larger and more progressive enterprises.  In many cases, family ownership with attendant risks and commitment to long hours is unattractive to succeeding generations, prompting sales.  In the case of one large 2024 acquisition by Cal-Maine Farms, a foreign-owned enterprise in the U.S. was purchased following the need for the parent company to raise capital by divestment.  Irrespective of the reasons for consolidation within the industry, less efficient producers have been displaced but with levels of production increased to achieve economies of scale.  The U.S. egg industry over decades has demonstrated cyclic expansion over periods of two to three years.  Injudicious expansion previously resulted in periods of financial loss.  As the industry has matured, producers independently projected returns from their investment in increased capacity but exercising prudence. Farmers, families and corporations made their own decisions based on projections of demand, escalation in production costs and market realities.

Perhaps the most significant omission from the Farm Action report is neglecting the impact of the egg-processing sector on supply and demand. Approximately 30 percent of all eggs produced are further-processed into liquids and dehydrated products used in baking, food production in for export.  The egg-breaking sector has suffered disproportionately from HPAI, resulting in diversion of shell eggs to breaking and thereby reducing supply, especially for uncommitted shell eggs.

Farm Action has diligently assembled data on egg production, prices and demand to accompany their submission. Even with cherry picking and bias in interpretation they have failed to make case for collusion and monopolization.  It is anticipated that the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice will accord the February 12^th submission by Farm Action the same level of review and come to the same conclusion that the allegations lack merit.

Governor Kathy Hochul (D) of the State of New York announced closure of live poultry markets in New York City and three adjoining counties as a result of isolation of avian influenza virus.  The order that encompassed the boroughs of the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens and neighboring West Chester, Nassau and Suffolk counties mandated depopulation and decontamination of 80 markets according to the New York State Department of Agriculture.

The presence of H5N1 virus in live bird markets presumes infection among supply flocks.  It is hoped that State of New York and APHIS are actively conducting traceback investigations since the virus is evidently circulating in the supply chain to urban markets. It is inevitable that following resumption of trading, the recent action by Governor Hochul will have to be revisited, based on the endemic status of HPAI infection.

Live bird markets are an anachronism in the context of the U.S. in 2025.  Live bird markets are a source of human infection in Asia and Africa and represent a potential risk of emergence of zoonotic infection in our Nation.  Nobody would starve as a result of permanent closure of all live bird markets that exist to cater for ethnic and socioeconomic minorities.  The extreme costs and disruption as a result of emergence of zoonotic infection would be felt through the entire economy of a region.  Although risks of human infection are relatively low at present, the consequences of a mutation leading to an outbreak as in China would be catastrophic.  It is time to regulate live bird markets into extinction given the risks involved. The availability of both halal and kosher chickens from USDA-inspected plants that are distributed to consumers through a cold chain confirms the irrelevancy of live bird markets nationally.

EGG-NEWS has editorialized on the futility of the attempt by USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) to initially eradicate and then control HPAI in all sectors of the poultry industry but especially in egg production.  The APHIS has not changed its playbook since the Pennsylvania outbreaks in 1984. This is despite the emergence of a panornitic caused by the H5N1 strain with Eurasian genes affecting migratory waterfowl, marine birds and mammals and resident free-living, non-migratory birds in the U.S. 

With the advent of the new Administration, it is evident that pressure will be exerted on APHIS for a change in policy allowing limited immunization as an adjunct to biosecurity.  It is now accepted by avian health professionals that avian influenza virus may be transmitted by the aerogenous route. This invalidates even the most rigorous and effective structural and operational biosecurity. 

The incoming Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently received a memorandum from Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) advocating the application of vaccination.  Senator Heinrich stated, “Vaccinating all laying hens in the United States against HPAI will help lower egg prices for consumers, decrease production losses for farmers and ultimately decrease the cost to taxpayers through reduced indemnity payments.”  The expenditure on compensation and logistics drained in excess of $2.0 billion from the Commodity Credit Corporation in Fiscal Year 2024 with every prospect of further expenditure during the current year.  Senator Heinrich did not address the increase cost of eggs to consumers, amounting to an estimated $15 billion in 2022 and possibly over $20 billion in 2024, with every prospect of a continuation as evidenced by current retail prices.

Senator Heinrich requested Secretary Rollins to address:

• Negotiating trade agreements that will allow export of U.S. broiler products in the event that vaccination is applied on a strategic basis in high-risk areas and accompanied by appropriate surveillance to certify that exported products are derived from flocks unaffected by avian influenza.  The broiler sector of the U.S. poultry industry has resisted vaccination with considerable justification since approximately 15 percent by weight of annual production is exported, principally (97 percent) in the form of leg quarters to nations that may or may not accept the principle of vaccination.  The World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) that establishes rules relating to trade with respect to flock and herd health accepts vaccination with appropriate surveillance.  APHIS for a variety of reasons, previously addressed in editorials in EGG-NEWS, has failed to consider the expedient of or to gain acceptance for vaccination among the membership of WOAH. This failure is now to the detriment of U.S. consumers and especially producers of eggs and turkeys.

• Secretary Rollins was asked to respond to logistic considerations including deploying H5N1 vaccination and surveillance.  The letter requested specifics on prioritizing flocks or regions in relation to risk of infection and reducing the impact of unjustified embargos on exports.

• The letter included, “Please share in detail your plan to lower egg and poultry prices through vaccination efforts and other means including a complete vaccination strategy, use cases and a plan to procure, stockpile, distribute, deploy, administer and track the use of H5N1 vaccines.”

• Senator Heinrich requested information on proposed USDA research with reference to the current H5N1 strain.  It is evident that opponents of vaccination are advancing the need for additional and inevitably protracted studies to delay introduction of immunization.  It is clear that questions regarding the effectiveness of vaccines, the reality that vaccinated flocks can still become infected, shifts in antigenicity associated with wide-scale vaccination and other theoretical concepts need to be addressed.  They should not however be used as a strategy to restrict or prevent vaccination.

Commercial inactivated vaccines can be purchased ‘off the shelf’ with one product approved by USDA and others soon to be available subject to APHIS acceptance. It is now up to the Agency to recognize the failure to either eradicate an endemic infection or to even control the ongoing epornitic applying biosecurity, irrespective of intensity.

This special edition is devoted to recent developments relating to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with regard to

• Ongoing flock losses
• The inevitable escalation in the retail price of eggs
• The introduction of tactical immunization as an adjunct to biosecurity and to protect flocks in high-risk areas
• Possible emergence of a zoonotic H5N1 strain. 

The number of hens depopulated in an attempt to control the infection has now exceeded 27 million during the first six weeks of 2025.  This follows the loss of 24 million hens in 2024, 13 million in 2023 and 43 million during 2022 marking the beginning of the ongoing North American epornitic.  The high price of eggs is a point of contention with the Administration since pre-election rhetoric promised to reduce food inflation.  The following series of articles and releases over the past two weeks provides perspective and commentary on the issue of HPAI.

Dr. Gerald Parker has been appointed to lead the White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy.  Dr. Parker, a veterinarian has three decades of experience in the federal government dealing with global health issues, security and pandemic preparedness.  He has worked with the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Department of Homeland Security in both Democratic and Republican administrations.  He was previously the Commander of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.  His most recent appointment was as Associate Dean for Global One Health at Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.

Previously EGG-NEWS reported on a decision to stockpile 50 million doses of H5N1 vaccine to protect humans and federal grants to biopharmaceutical companies to develop an mRNA vaccine that could be rapidly manufactured and administered in the event of an H5N1 epidemic.

Approximately 70 cases of zoonotic infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 have documented in the U.S. although the actual prevalence may be higher.  These cases involved conjunctivitis and mild upper respiratory infection contracted by workers involved in depopulation of infected flocks or having direct contact with the milk of infected dairy cattle. Three cases of H5N1 influenza have been reported from Canada and the U.S. with two unrelated to either live poultry or raw milk.   

The risk of an emergent zoonotic strain capable of contagion (human-to-human transmission) are currently regarded as extremely low but the consequences are potentially catastrophic.  On February 12^th the Ohio Department of Health documented a case of avian influenza in a poultry farmer in Mercer County where the prevalence of HPAI is high.  There are no details as to whether the patient had direct contact with either turkey or egg production flocks, but numerous cases of avian influenza have been recorded in recent weeks in a cluster encompassing Mercer and Darke Counties in northwest Ohio.

Currently seasonal influenza (H1N1 and H3N2 strains.) is increasing in incidence. This season CDC estimate 24 million cases with 310,000 hospitalizations and 13,000 fatalities. It is imperative that all personnel coming in contact with live poultry should receive the seasonal multivalent influenza vaccine to reduce the probability of a recombinant event involving human and avian strains.

Subscribers are referred to recent posts on EGG-NEWS relating to the possibility of emergence of zoonotic avian influenza.  Previous articles citing research on zoonotic influenza and incorporating comments by virologists and immunologists can be retrieved by entering “avian influenza” in the SEARCH feature.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in association with state health authorities initiated a serologic survey during mid-September 2024 among 150 large animal veterinarians exposed to cattle herds over the previous three-month period.  Of the 150 practitioners, sampled at a conference, three demonstrated recent exposure.  All were asymptomatic and none had worked with dairy cattle known or suspected to have been infected.  One of the three veterinarians was exposed to a poultry flock known to have been infected with HPAI.  One of  the three food-animal veterinarians practiced in Georgia and South Carolina with neither state having reporting cases of bovine influenza-H5N1, suggesting greater geographic distribution of infection other than the recognized 14 states collectively recording close to 1,000 affected herds during 2024.

There have been 67 confirmed human cases among agricultural workers of which 40 were involved with exposure to dairy herds and the remaining cases were employed to depopulate infected flocks. This suggests the need to deploy available H5 vaccine in the risk populations.

A serologic survey among avian veterinarians, wildlife biologists and personnel having contact with both infected and unaffected flocks would provide valuable epidemiologic information.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• January 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 582 cents per dozen, up 158 cents per dozen or 37.2 percent from the December 2024 value of 424 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $3.23 and $1.72 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts that accentuates the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 15 million in 23 complexes year to date.
• January 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was up 2.3 percent from December 2024 to 76.1 cents per dozen. The January average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be up 2.0 percent to  95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 505.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 349.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 713.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 672.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The December 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 3.7 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 307.6 million compared to the revised November 2024 value of 311.3 million and 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• December 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.2 million was down 0.2 million chicks from November 2024.
• December 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 35.1 percent from November to 439,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.8 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 97 percent of shell egg exports of 278,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico collectively represented 71 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 161,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

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TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR JANUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA January 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on February 10^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous January 2025 release reflecting December 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.8% January 2025.    82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook January 16^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF January 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   December  2024, 6.34     November  2024,  6.60*               

EXPORTS DECEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.0 percent of National production in December 2024 (1.3% shell, 0.7% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting JANUARY 2025:-

                                                         582.0 cents per dozen¹- 76.1 cents per dozen = 505.9 cents per dozen         (December 2024 comparison:   424.0 cents per dozen – 74.4 cents per dozen  = 349.6 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for JANUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     809.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen

December  2024      766.0 cents per dozen -  93.4 cents per dozen =  672.6 cents per dozen  

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

The February 11^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10^th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10^th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At market close on February 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10^th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering January 2025, released on February 3^rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.3 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from December 2024. Depopulation was carried out through the fourth quarter of 2024 and through 2025 as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.0 million hens or 1.0 percent from December 2024 to 101.0 million, despite documented extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in January 2025 was down 0.4 percent compared to December 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.5 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 0.5 percent in January 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.2 percent, down from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to validate the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for January 2025 averaged $7.24 per dozen, up 21.5 percent from $5.91 per dozen in December 2024, reflecting an imbalance of demand relative to supply. The January 20245 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding SW, AK. and HI.) was $2.88 per dozen, apparently down 2 cents per dozen from December 2024 based on 133 stores. This compares with 1,027 stores in December and reflects fewer promotions as the year commenced reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI that restricted supply.

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.24 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $7.84 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $2.88 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 172.4 percent (-124.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

Although regular weekly editions of EGG-NEWS have been suspended, some events and situations of importance to the industry deserve comment. Currently HPAI is the most important issue facing egg and turkey production in the U.S.  

The following postings are both relevant and topical and are circulated in the interests of stimulating discussion and a review of APHIS policy on withholding vaccination for high-risk locations. 

Appropriate responses are welcomed

This special edition of EGG-NEWS provides perspective on HPAI as a panornitic affecting free-living birds and commercial poultry on six continents. It is intended that the editorial and comment postings will engender thought and discussion leading to practical and realistic approaches to suppress and prevent the infection currently attributed to H5N1 virus of clade 2.3.4.4b.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) mainly due to H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, D1.1 genotype, is responsible for ongoing losses in many nations attesting to the panornitic status of the disease.

During January 2025 Japan reported 14 outbreaks to the World Organization of Animal Health of which one involved a quail farm but with the remainder all table egg flocks. A total of 3.8 million hens have been depopulated through January 27^th representing 2.2 percent of the population of approximately 170 million.

South Korea has recorded 29 outbreaks of HPAI among commercial poultry including ducks and laying hens since October 2024. The incidence conforms to the migratory patterns of marine birds and waterfowl.

Canada confirmed 51 cases of HPAI in 2024 requiring depopulation of 14.5 million commercial turkeys, broilers or laying hens. Losses were recorded in British Columbia (8.7 million), Alberta (2.0 million), Quebec (1.4 million) and Ontario (1.1 million). Month to date losses comprise British Columbia with four cases and Ontario, two cases.

Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 29th 2025.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 8.3 percent. Medium size was up a substantial 30.8 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on January 24^th was $6.55 per dozen up $0.68 per dozen (+11.6 percent) from $5.88 last week. This value was approximately $4.05 above the 3-year average of 2.50 per dozen and $4.31 above the corresponding week in 2024 at $2.24 per dozen. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 7.7 percent higher and with the prospect of an increase during the coming week based on the trend of daily increases.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 5.0 percent to $3.18 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 8.4 percent to $3.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.
• This past week shell egg inventory was down 2.0 percent, compared to a fall of 0.3 percent during the previous week. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes sustained consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through February based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the unusual January surge in price intensified by ongoing 2025 losses due to HPAI. The national flock is down by a conservative estimate of 24 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress)
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Losses during 2024 attained approximately 40 million hens with the fall-winter wave in progress and with 2.6 million hens depopulated among four states in January 2025 to date.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with progressively increasing prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now far less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by 3.1 percent overall this past week to 1.43 million cases incorporating a 7.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 1.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend or major storm as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past two months.
• The U.S. egg-production industry experienced the loss of 40 million hens during 2024 together with over 4 million replacement pullets. Ongoing reports of HPAI diagnoses in backyard and non-commercial flocks (‘non-WOAH reportable’) and isolation from free-living domestic non-migratory birds suggests a continuation of outbreaks until waterfowl settle into their winter habitat. Not even the most stringent biosecurity can absolutely prevent introduction of avian influenza virus on dust particles entrained in air entering complexes and houses with negative ventilation. This predicates the limited and strategic application of H5 vaccine in high-risk areas. Over 950 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in sixteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 700 herds were diagnosed in California and 65 in Colorado over the past five months with the high incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On January 29^th the stated total flock of 300.5 million, was down by 1.0 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets per week that entered production to satisfy current demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Missouri, Ohio and California, and considering USDA-APHIS reports of depopulation, it is estimated that the total egg-producing flock at the end of January 2025 is approximately 26 million hens lower (-8.0 percent) than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on January 27^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.3 percent from last week to $7.04 per dozen. Large size was up 9.3 percent to $7.02 per dozen. Mediums were up 30.8 percent to $5.73 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the present week and extending through February

The stock of Medium size was down 5.4 percent, (down 13.6 percent in the Southwest Region but up 12.8 percent in the Southeast). The inventory of Small size was down 5.5 percent over the past week (South Central up 130 percent but Southwest down 45.8 percent). This indicates differences in timing of chick placements and regional demand. Surviving pullets placed in early September 2024 for mid-January 2025 production are now moving from Medium to Large. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.4 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for December 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 60 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response).

Currently producers of generic shell eggs are operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The January 27^th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 61.0 percent to $6.67 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $6.48 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $6.66 per dozen.

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether hens among complexes and farms depopulated during January to date, have been accounted for. Depletion of large complexes in Missouri and Ohio have occurred this past week. Accurate and updated data should be posted during the current winter outbreaks, given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Current values for the populations of the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting January 29^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 0.9 million to 295.1 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This is consistent with sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing and started pullets.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on January 29^th 2025 was 1.0 million lower to 300.5 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 5.4 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens are resuming production. Given the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 26 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes incident cases of HPAI in the fall and winter wave that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 8.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

• Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on January 27^th 2024 was 2.315 million lbs. (1,052 metric tons), and 0.1 percent down from 2.317 million lbs. on January 1^st 2025 and unchanged from last week. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December 2024.
• The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on January 24^th 2024 documented a total stock of 18.5 million pounds (8,403 metric tons) of frozen egg products on December 31^st This quantity was down 38.0 percent from the December 31^st 2023 value of 29.8 million pounds. The December 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 6.9 percent from the previous month ending November 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
• Compared to December 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 43.8 percent to 1.56 million lbs. on December 31^st
• Compared to December 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 60.5 percent to 378,000 lbs. on December 31^st
• A total of 89.5 percent (16.55 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.9 percent) and “Unclassified” (44.6 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective January 28^th 2024 was down 3.1 percent from the previous week, to 1,431,000 million cases. The total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.43 million cases, (1.48 million last week; Down 45,600 cases).

Four USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 2.7 percent from the previous week to 410,400 cases
• The Southeast Region was up 1.8 percent to 266,400 cases
• The South Central Region was down 9.8 percent to 165,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was up 3.4 percent to 163,700 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 1.6 percent to 100,400 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 5.2 percent to 39,200 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,431,000 cases (1,476,600 cases last week), down 3.1 percent, of which 80.1 percent were shell eggs (79.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 7.3 percent to 285,400 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 2.0 percent attaining 1,145,600 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 5.0 percent last week and checks were up 8.4 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (46.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.3 percent) compared to a rise of 5.7 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 45.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On January 27^th 2025 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 442,800 cases (down 0.8 percent from last week at 446,400 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down a substantial 25.1 percent to 29,100 cases on promotion. (was down 19.6% to 38,800 cases)
• Certified Organic, down 5.1 percent to 65,400 cases. (was down 3.5% to 68,900 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 2.7 percent to 348,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 339,200 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

The industry requires a study on all aspects that influence pricing including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on January 24^th 2025 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices representing features as reported January 24^th for the previous week of January 17^th do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs:-

Large, in cartons generic white: None No comparison ($2.24)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.50 Down 5.3% ($2.64)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $6.49 Up 7.1% ($6.06)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.97 Unchanged ($8.97)

National loose, (FOB dock): $6.55 Up 11.4% ($5.88)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $7.24 Up 7.7% ($6.72)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported on January 24^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $6.48 Up 62.0% ($4.00)

Northeast $6.56 Up 62.3% ($4.04)

Southeast $6.62 Up 60.3% ($4.13)

South Central $4.66 Up 60.1% ($4.16)

Combined $6.57 Up 61.0% ($4.08)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on January 2^nd 2025, the number of certified organic hens in December was unchanged from November 2024 at 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined, offset by December flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in December 2024 was down 5.6 million hens (5.3 percent) from November 2024 to 100.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in December 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 100.0 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 120.3 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 36.9 percent of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 39.9 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 301.5 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending January 25^th 2025 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on January 29^th 2024 was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,317,144 cases, (1,321,941 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (52.7 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly higher proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.9 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.8 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks were higher this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 7.3 percent this past week to 285,400 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2024 in-line breakers processed 51.1 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will prevail over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting December 2024, yield from 5,386,714 cases (7,66,144 cases in November) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period December 1^st through December 28^th 2024. Edible yield was 39.6 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 63.2; white, 22.1; yolk, 11.2; dried, 3.4.

All eggs broken during 2024 attained 72.88 million cases, 4.8 percent less than in 2023. Eggs broken in 2025 to date amounted to 5.21 million cases, 8.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty with high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 5.0 percent this past week to $3.18 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.35 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on January 27^th. The price of checks was up 8.4 percent to an average of $3.22 per dozen over the most frequent range of $3.21 to $3.23 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated January 27^th confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.3 percent from last week and Medium size was up 30.8 percent from the previous week. A 2.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price on January 27^th, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 8.6 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $7.06 ($6.50), (estimated by proportion): L. $7.04 ($6.48): M. $5.73 ($4.38)

The 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, on January 27^th (with the previous week in parentheses) was unchanged from last week. The high price is attributed to depletion of flocks due to HPAI. In January 2024 the USDA documented a hen population of 9.1 million declining to 7.8 million in July and 4.4 million at the end of December 2024. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states.

1. $8.99 ($8.99); L. $8.97 ($8.97); M. $7.60 ($7.60)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on January 29^th 2025 was up 1.7 points from the last weekly report to +5.5 with a 3.1 percent decrease in total inventory and a 2.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

COMMENTS

USDA reported the depopulation of 3.9 million laying hens as a result of HPAI this past week. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in five states (CT, MA, VT, IL and OR) confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. Cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in AR, GA, MO and VA, amounting to 0.2 million this past week. Losses among breeder and growing turkeys in MN, OH, MO and IN amounted to 0.5 million this past week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec.

Approximate losses reported in 2024 include:-

• 40 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 4 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
• 0 million broilers with breeders
• 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
• 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

This special edition of EGG-NEWS incorporating industry data is sponsored by VAL-CO as service to egg producers.

Valco Industries was established in 2002, but their DNA goes back to 1935 with the establishment of the original company in Bird-In-Hand, Pennsylvania by the family of Fritz Steudler.  The company is headquartered in New Holland, PA. and employs over 300 in design, manufacturing and sales and operates subsidiary offices in Coldwater, OH, The Netherlands, India, and China. This year VAL-CO was recognized for 70 years as an exhibitor at the IPPE and its predecessors.

Valco Industries operates under the corporate commitment of “helping agriculture feed a hungry world” through providing equipment delivering consistent performance and supported by service to maximize returns by producers on their investment and labor.

Although VAL-CO manufactures a full line of poultry and hog equipment, products and ventilation products are featured in this edition.

This special edition focuses on the comprehensive range of ventilation components that collectively contribute to a seamless installation to optimize performance in both conventional cage housing and alternative systems. VAL-CO is experienced in the design and marketing of equipment to meet the specific requirements for multilevel aviaries and slat-and-litter barns.

VAL-CO installations can be supplied for new projects with the assistance of experienced design engineers.  VAL-CO components can upgrade existing housing undergoing conversion to alternative systems or to expand capacity.

Ventilation components reviewed were selected on the basis of innovation and development to suit the needs of the industry.

VARIABLE SPEED FANS

The VAL-CO V-Fan™ is available in 24”, 36", 50" or 54" diameter models all with  direct drive and  variable speed operation.

Variable speed fans offset their relatively higher initial cost by reducing utility bills achieved through high efficiency that may exceed conventional belt-drive fans by a threefold factor. A 54" V-Fan operating at reduced speed can provide an efficiency of up to 54 CFM/Watt.

HEMISPHERE MIXING FAN

VAL-CO developed a range of Hemisphere® fans in response to the need to distribute air evenly throughout an existing layer house or on each of the levels of a multi-story building. Centrally- placed Hemisphere mixing fans draw air up from floor level and down from the ceiling with dispersion outwards towards the walls creating a uniform temperature and environment for the flock.  Hemisphere fans are available in 48" or 72" diameter models. Installations can include an optional chimney for the attic, roof domes, variable speed controls, and bird proofing.

LIGHT TRAPS

VAL-CO Light Traps are available in a range to suit new installations and retrofits.  The Flush Mount Light Trap obviates the need to install or add a plenum (‘doghouse’).  Features of the Flush Light Mount Trap include the ability to open the installation for cleaning and maintenance without impinging on aisle space when closed  The large area of the inlet reduces static pressure and increases fan efficiency.  Flush Mount Light Traps are available for 36", 54", and 57” fans.

OASIS™ PAD COOLING SYSTEMS

The Oasis pad cooling system will improve bird comfort and production under high temperature conditions and can also be used to increase humidity especially during brooding in some areas and seasons.

 The VAL-CO Oasis incorporates design features to conserve water and to contribute to optimal conversion of water to vapor.  The installation includes a ribbed pad tray, elevated above the drain holes to prolong the life of pads.  The trough is designed for maintenance and cleaning.

VENTILATION CONTROLLERS

The Ventra XT can integrate the operation of modulating heaters, variable speed fans, alarms, ventilation, and lighting.  The controller is managed through a 7" intuitive touch screen and allows remote access through the XTConnect and VLink apps.  The Ventra XT controller has inputs for carbon monoxide, ammonia and carbon dioxide sensors and can also control humidity with an optional Heat Purge feature.  The Ventra XT includes 24 analog inputs and 12 analog outputs and provides data logging and tracking of ventilation components including inlet operation covering multiple years.

In addition to the featured products, VAL-CO inlets, chimneys, inlet doors, and curtains are available to complete a comprehensive ventilation installation.