In her confirmation hearings Ms. Brooke Rollins who will to become the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture in the new administration of President Trump, acknowledged the importance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to a wide range of stakeholders including the poultry industry, grain farmers and consumers. Secretary Rollins is not expected to be either an epidemiologist or a virologist, but it is hoped that her strong personal qualities, skill and experience as an administrator will lead to a reevaluation of the control and prevention of highly pathogenic avian influenza by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) under her control.

The current HPAI epornitic has proceeded unchecked since 2022.  For the edification of the incoming Secretary the box score for 2024 includes approximately 40 million table-egg hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets, 3.4 million commercial meat turkeys and 5 million broilers.  During the month of January 2025 APHIS has presided over the depopulation of close to 5 million laying hens and 0.2 million broilers and turkeys respectively.  Since January 2024 California has lost 52 percent of its flock and the state population of hens is down to 4.4 million. Colorado depopulated 66 percent of its hen population in 2024 with most outbreaks in Weld County leaving the state currently housing a mere 1.3 million laying hens.

The depletion of laying flocks has seriously impacted the supply of eggs with resulting escalation in cost of to consumers and manufacturers.  The National Large white graded loose price increased by 286 percent from $1.62 per dozen during the third week of January 2024 to $6.26 per dozen during the past week. This increase should be compared to the 1.8 percent escalation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food consumed at home as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For 2024 the CPI for all food was 2.8 percent. It is estimated that during 2022 expenditure on eggs by consumers was higher by approximately $2 per dozen as a result of H5N1 depopulation, costing households an incremental $15 billion.  The impact on consumers’ budgets in 2024 will exceed this figure.

Agriculture economists are bemused by the disparity between the eight percent reduction in the number of producing hens in comparison to the more than threefold increase in price. This denotes exceptional elasticity (despite the hard shells!). Extreme inflation in the price of eggs is a standout among domestic expenditures. High shelf prices have the potential to embarrass the incoming Administration, given pre-election rhetoric on reducing the cost of food to consumers.  Secretary designate Rollins in her hearing noted “We must work with the great men and women of USDA, the stakeholder communities and state leaders to immediately and comprehensively get a handle on the state of animal disease outbreaks.”

The USDA-APHIS has pursued a program of depopulation and in cooperation with state authorities has achieved high levels of efficiency in diagnosing outbreaks, killing and disposal of flocks and managing decontamination with attendant distribution of indemnity and logistics payments.  It is however evident that HPAI will not simply disappear as it did in 2015 when migratory waterfowl ceased shedding the H5N2 strain virus.  Since 2022, an H5N1 virus of clade 2.3.4.4b; D1.1 genotype has effectively become a panornitic, present on six continents.

APHIS is continuing to implement a “stamping out” policy for a disease that is clearly seasonally and regionally if not nationally endemic. This Sisyphean approach is inappropriate, outdated and unrealistic in relation to the epidemiology of the disease. It is evident that HPAI is introduced and disseminated by migratory waterfowl. Blurring of the previous seasonal fall and spring phases may be due to climatic variation but possibly by extension to domestic resident bird and mammal reservoirs.

There is considerable evidence that the application of effective vaccines as an adjunct to biosecurity can suppress the magnitude and financial impact of outbreaks.  A joint report by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in cooperation with the European Food Safety Agency Panel on Animal Health and Welfare confirmed that vaccinated chicken flocks show an increased ability to withstand exposure and demonstrate reduced viral shedding.

A reluctance to allow limited and strategic immunization of U.S. flocks in the face of continuing outbreaks is difficult to comprehend.  Representatives of APHIS have opined that vaccination would be more expensive than depopulation in regional meetings.  If this is the justification driving opposition to vaccination then the Agency should make public their scientific and economic studies to be evaluated by independent agricultural economists and veterinary health professionals.  Could the reluctance to consider tactical vaccination be an institutional inability to admit that past policy and decisions were wrong and that the current approach to control ignoring vaccination may be inappropriate?  It is evident that there is overt pressure by a segment of the industry to resist introduction of vaccination, even on a regional basis, since this may impact exports. Since outbreaks have recently occurred in major broiler-producing states with resulting embargos, the failure of APHIS to negotiate acceptance of vaccination with controls among importing nations has now become a problem to all segments of the U.S. poultry industry.

Extension of HPAI to free-living mammals in contact with infected poultry and dead wild birds emerged as a concern during 2023.  Extensive mortality among marine mammals along the Pacific littoral of South America confirmed that H5N1 can undergo mutation and can become contagious among mammals.  The emergence of H5N1 B13.3 genotype among dairy herds should serve as a warning to the livestock industry. Hogs can serve as mixing vessels for influenza viruses and could contribute to both mutation and drift creating even greater risk for humans.

At present the prospect for emergence of a human epidemic appears minimal.  This said, the consequences would be catastrophic both in terms of public health and to the Nation’s economy as evidenced by the COVID outbreak. Given withdrawal from the WHO and political restraints on federal agencies that support health including the NIH and CDC would place the U.S. in a difficult position should a zoonotic strain of H5N1 emerge.  Prominent virologists in internationally recognized U.S. institutions have raised concerns over possible mutation in the H5 hemagglutinin gene. This was apparent in the two clinical cases in Canada and the U.S. respectively.  To date there has been no evidence of human-to-human transmission among the approximately 70 cases contracted from exposure to either dairy cattle or infected flocks of chickens. One prominent researcher characterized this situation as “Only a matter of time”.  A second specialist noted, “At the end of the day I think it’s a numbers game.”  The fact that producers have placed large numbers of susceptible hens on complexes within all four flyways represents a risk for the occurrence of mutation that could contribute to emergence of a zoonotic strain of avian influenza. Effective vaccines that stimulate immunity in populations of commercial poultry are commercially available. Inactivated H5 and H7 DIVA vaccines have been deployed in many nations including Italy, the Netherlands, the PRC, France and our neighbor Mexico.

It is evident that the approach to control of HPAI adopted by APHIS over the past three years has failed.  Vaccination is required for laying hens and turkeys in areas with a history of reocurring infection.  Decisions relating to vaccination should be based on benefit-to-cost studies taking into account risks of infection, the financial impact of losses and trade consideration that may in reality be overstated.  At the very least, workers coming into contact with live poultry and dairy herds should receive both the trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine and an available H5N1 product manufactured in the U.S. The E.U. has imported this vaccine that has been deployed in Finland and will soon be used in the Netherlands.

The extent of losses among laying hens and other commercial poultry and the extensive cost borne disproportionately by the private sector, producers and consumers should result in a reevaluation of policy with regard to vaccination.  The infection is not controlled, and APHIS should accept epidemiologic and financial reality and recognize the zoonotic potential of H5N1virus.

It is axiomatic that HPAI is effectively “the Newcastle disease of the 2020’s”.  At the outset of my professional career during the late 1960’s, Newcastle disease was as catastrophic as avian influenza is today. This disease is no longer a restraint to production given the availability and universal use of vaccines.

Let us hope that Secretary Rollins will stimulate a reappraisal of vaccination against HPAI and effect changes leading to adoption of tactical vaccination as an adjunct to biosecurity.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11^th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

The February 11^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10^th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10^th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At market close on February 11^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10^th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• January 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 582 cents per dozen, up 158 cents per dozen or 37.2 percent from the December 2024 value of 424 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $3.23 and $1.72 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts that accentuates the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 15 million in 23 complexes year to date.
• January 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was up 2.3 percent from December 2024 to 76.1 cents per dozen. The January average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be up 2.0 percent to  95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 505.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 349.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 713.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 672.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The December 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 3.7 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 307.6 million compared to the revised November 2024 value of 311.3 million and 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• December 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.2 million was down 0.2 million chicks from November 2024.
• December 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 35.1 percent from November to 439,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.8 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 97 percent of shell egg exports of 278,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico collectively represented 71 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 161,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

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TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR JANUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA January 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on February 10^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous January 2025 release reflecting December 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.8% January 2025.    82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook January 16^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF January 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   December  2024, 6.34     November  2024,  6.60*               

EXPORTS DECEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.0 percent of National production in December 2024 (1.3% shell, 0.7% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting JANUARY 2025:-

                                                         582.0 cents per dozen¹- 76.1 cents per dozen = 505.9 cents per dozen         (December 2024 comparison:   424.0 cents per dozen – 74.4 cents per dozen  = 349.6 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for JANUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     809.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen

December  2024      766.0 cents per dozen -  93.4 cents per dozen =  672.6 cents per dozen  

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

This special edition is devoted to recent developments relating to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with regard to

• Ongoing flock losses
• The inevitable escalation in the retail price of eggs
• The introduction of tactical immunization as an adjunct to biosecurity and to protect flocks in high-risk areas
• Possible emergence of a zoonotic H5N1 strain. 

The number of hens depopulated in an attempt to control the infection has now exceeded 27 million during the first six weeks of 2025.  This follows the loss of 24 million hens in 2024, 13 million in 2023 and 43 million during 2022 marking the beginning of the ongoing North American epornitic.  The high price of eggs is a point of contention with the Administration since pre-election rhetoric promised to reduce food inflation.  The following series of articles and releases over the past two weeks provides perspective and commentary on the issue of HPAI.

EGG-NEWS has editorialized on the futility of the attempt by USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) to initially eradicate and then control HPAI in all sectors of the poultry industry but especially in egg production.  The APHIS has not changed its playbook since the Pennsylvania outbreaks in 1984. This is despite the emergence of a panornitic caused by the H5N1 strain with Eurasian genes affecting migratory waterfowl, marine birds and mammals and resident free-living, non-migratory birds in the U.S. 

With the advent of the new Administration, it is evident that pressure will be exerted on APHIS for a change in policy allowing limited immunization as an adjunct to biosecurity.  It is now accepted by avian health professionals that avian influenza virus may be transmitted by the aerogenous route. This invalidates even the most rigorous and effective structural and operational biosecurity. 

The incoming Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently received a memorandum from Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) advocating the application of vaccination.  Senator Heinrich stated, “Vaccinating all laying hens in the United States against HPAI will help lower egg prices for consumers, decrease production losses for farmers and ultimately decrease the cost to taxpayers through reduced indemnity payments.”  The expenditure on compensation and logistics drained in excess of $2.0 billion from the Commodity Credit Corporation in Fiscal Year 2024 with every prospect of further expenditure during the current year.  Senator Heinrich did not address the increase cost of eggs to consumers, amounting to an estimated $15 billion in 2022 and possibly over $20 billion in 2024, with every prospect of a continuation as evidenced by current retail prices.

Senator Heinrich requested Secretary Rollins to address:

• Negotiating trade agreements that will allow export of U.S. broiler products in the event that vaccination is applied on a strategic basis in high-risk areas and accompanied by appropriate surveillance to certify that exported products are derived from flocks unaffected by avian influenza.  The broiler sector of the U.S. poultry industry has resisted vaccination with considerable justification since approximately 15 percent by weight of annual production is exported, principally (97 percent) in the form of leg quarters to nations that may or may not accept the principle of vaccination.  The World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) that establishes rules relating to trade with respect to flock and herd health accepts vaccination with appropriate surveillance.  APHIS for a variety of reasons, previously addressed in editorials in EGG-NEWS, has failed to consider the expedient of or to gain acceptance for vaccination among the membership of WOAH. This failure is now to the detriment of U.S. consumers and especially producers of eggs and turkeys.

• Secretary Rollins was asked to respond to logistic considerations including deploying H5N1 vaccination and surveillance.  The letter requested specifics on prioritizing flocks or regions in relation to risk of infection and reducing the impact of unjustified embargos on exports.

• The letter included, “Please share in detail your plan to lower egg and poultry prices through vaccination efforts and other means including a complete vaccination strategy, use cases and a plan to procure, stockpile, distribute, deploy, administer and track the use of H5N1 vaccines.”

• Senator Heinrich requested information on proposed USDA research with reference to the current H5N1 strain.  It is evident that opponents of vaccination are advancing the need for additional and inevitably protracted studies to delay introduction of immunization.  It is clear that questions regarding the effectiveness of vaccines, the reality that vaccinated flocks can still become infected, shifts in antigenicity associated with wide-scale vaccination and other theoretical concepts need to be addressed.  They should not however be used as a strategy to restrict or prevent vaccination.

Commercial inactivated vaccines can be purchased ‘off the shelf’ with one product approved by USDA and others soon to be available subject to APHIS acceptance. It is now up to the Agency to recognize the failure to either eradicate an endemic infection or to even control the ongoing epornitic applying biosecurity, irrespective of intensity.

Less there be any questions as to the geographic distribution of H5 avian influenza, recent reports to the World Organization of Animal Health confirm outbreaks on four continents:

• India – With extensive and obviously under-reported outbreaks in Maharashtra State and other incidents with “massive mortality” incorrectly diagnosed as “Newcastle disease”.

• South Korea – Recording the 35^th outbreak involving depopulation of 1.5 million birds.

• Japan – Has reported 50 cases over the past three months leading to the loss of 5.0 million birds.

• The E.U. –Italy has depopulated 16 farms. In other E.U nations outbreaks in both backyard and commercial flocks in addition to free-living birds have been reported by Poland, Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Albania, the Netherlands and Slovakia.  The U.K. has reported 33 cases with 1.8 million birds depopulated over the past three months.

• Iceland and Greenland have diagnosed H5N5 in migratory marine birds following previous transatlantic east to west extension of H5 infection and now with evident emergence of this strain in the Maritime Provinces of Canada. This has implications for the Atlantic Flyway southward into the U.S.

•  Australia – Currently is dealing with a reoccurrence of H7 avian influenza introduced by migratory birds.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in association with state health authorities initiated a serologic survey during mid-September 2024 among 150 large animal veterinarians exposed to cattle herds over the previous three-month period.  Of the 150 practitioners, sampled at a conference, three demonstrated recent exposure.  All were asymptomatic and none had worked with dairy cattle known or suspected to have been infected.  One of the three veterinarians was exposed to a poultry flock known to have been infected with HPAI.  One of  the three food-animal veterinarians practiced in Georgia and South Carolina with neither state having reporting cases of bovine influenza-H5N1, suggesting greater geographic distribution of infection other than the recognized 14 states collectively recording close to 1,000 affected herds during 2024.

There have been 67 confirmed human cases among agricultural workers of which 40 were involved with exposure to dairy herds and the remaining cases were employed to depopulate infected flocks. This suggests the need to deploy available H5 vaccine in the risk populations.

A serologic survey among avian veterinarians, wildlife biologists and personnel having contact with both infected and unaffected flocks would provide valuable epidemiologic information.

Approximately 70 cases of zoonotic infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 have documented in the U.S. although the actual prevalence may be higher.  These cases involved conjunctivitis and mild upper respiratory infection contracted by workers involved in depopulation of infected flocks or having direct contact with the milk of infected dairy cattle. Three cases of H5N1 influenza have been reported from Canada and the U.S. with two unrelated to either live poultry or raw milk.   

The risk of an emergent zoonotic strain capable of contagion (human-to-human transmission) are currently regarded as extremely low but the consequences are potentially catastrophic.  On February 12^th the Ohio Department of Health documented a case of avian influenza in a poultry farmer in Mercer County where the prevalence of HPAI is high.  There are no details as to whether the patient had direct contact with either turkey or egg production flocks, but numerous cases of avian influenza have been recorded in recent weeks in a cluster encompassing Mercer and Darke Counties in northwest Ohio.

Currently seasonal influenza (H1N1 and H3N2 strains.) is increasing in incidence. This season CDC estimate 24 million cases with 310,000 hospitalizations and 13,000 fatalities. It is imperative that all personnel coming in contact with live poultry should receive the seasonal multivalent influenza vaccine to reduce the probability of a recombinant event involving human and avian strains.

Subscribers are referred to recent posts on EGG-NEWS relating to the possibility of emergence of zoonotic avian influenza.  Previous articles citing research on zoonotic influenza and incorporating comments by virologists and immunologists can be retrieved by entering “avian influenza” in the SEARCH feature.

Governor Kathy Hochul (D) of the State of New York announced closure of live poultry markets in New York City and three adjoining counties as a result of isolation of avian influenza virus.  The order that encompassed the boroughs of the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens and neighboring West Chester, Nassau and Suffolk counties mandated depopulation and decontamination of 80 markets according to the New York State Department of Agriculture.

The presence of H5N1 virus in live bird markets presumes infection among supply flocks.  It is hoped that State of New York and APHIS are actively conducting traceback investigations since the virus is evidently circulating in the supply chain to urban markets. It is inevitable that following resumption of trading, the recent action by Governor Hochul will have to be revisited, based on the endemic status of HPAI infection.

Live bird markets are an anachronism in the context of the U.S. in 2025.  Live bird markets are a source of human infection in Asia and Africa and represent a potential risk of emergence of zoonotic infection in our Nation.  Nobody would starve as a result of permanent closure of all live bird markets that exist to cater for ethnic and socioeconomic minorities.  The extreme costs and disruption as a result of emergence of zoonotic infection would be felt through the entire economy of a region.  Although risks of human infection are relatively low at present, the consequences of a mutation leading to an outbreak as in China would be catastrophic.  It is time to regulate live bird markets into extinction given the risks involved. The availability of both halal and kosher chickens from USDA-inspected plants that are distributed to consumers through a cold chain confirms the irrelevancy of live bird markets nationally.

Dr. Gerald Parker has been appointed to lead the White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy.  Dr. Parker, a veterinarian has three decades of experience in the federal government dealing with global health issues, security and pandemic preparedness.  He has worked with the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Department of Homeland Security in both Democratic and Republican administrations.  He was previously the Commander of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.  His most recent appointment was as Associate Dean for Global One Health at Texas A&M College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.

Previously EGG-NEWS reported on a decision to stockpile 50 million doses of H5N1 vaccine to protect humans and federal grants to biopharmaceutical companies to develop an mRNA vaccine that could be rapidly manufactured and administered in the event of an H5N1 epidemic.

Farm Action, a nonprofit claiming to advocate for farmers, ranchers and independent processors has become involved in the pricing of eggs. The organization has again, addressed requests to the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice to investigate alleged “monopolization and anticompetitive coordination by large egg producers”.  Previously, Farm Action requested action under Section 6 (b) of the Federal Trade Commission Act to investigate price setting systems and marketing practices in the egg industry. No official action was taken, presumably following a review of available facts that refuted the allegations by Farm Action.

Although the nonprofit recognizes the relationship between high egg prices and extensive flock depopulation as a result of highly pathogenic avian influenza, the organization downplays the impact of the disease with the loss of close to 30 million hens in 2025 to date.  In a month-to-month comparison using 2021 as the base prior to the emergence of the current epornitic, it is claimed that losses in the egg producing flock attained five percent during 2024.  This figure is possibly understated given that USDA has in all probability over-counted flock size. The current producing hen population estimated by the USDA is 293 million or 23 million less than the pre-HPAI population corresponding to a 7.3 percent shortfall.

The letter to the Federal Trade Commission did not consider possible reasons for the extreme price elasticity of eggs. These may relate to distortions created by the prevailing price discovery system that amplifies both the upward and downward trajectory in price resulting from any disturbance in the balance between supply and demand. A second factor may be the magnitude of supply contracts entered into between producers and large retailers that may involve more than half the shell eggs produced. This would result in fluctuation in price as the available but constrained supply of eggs responds to industrial and consumer demand.

Farm Action suggests monopolization and anticompetitive coordination among the dominant firms in the egg supply chain as a reason for high egg prices.  The organization specifically cites the position of Cal-Maine Foods responsible for less than 20 percent of national production.  If any oligopoly exists in the chain extending from producers to consumers, it is more likely to be at the level of large retailers.  Farm Action maintains that egg producers have deliberately restricted production to maintain high prices.  This is a fallacy unsupported by available data.  The number of hens in production is determined by the supply of day old pullet chicks, livability of rearing and production flocks, molting options and flock depletion. Availability of commercial level chicks depends on the size of parent flocks operated by breeders through their parent multiplier flocks. In 2022 the parent level flock averaged 2.9 million hens decreasing to 2.5 million in 2023 and 2024 with greater efficiency. As a result of the increased demand following the onset of avian influenza the parent hen population increased marginally in 2025 to 2.6 million. It is estimated that this complement of hens using standard parameters, would result in the production of 26.0 million-day-old pullet chicks each month.  This theoretical volume corresponds to the actual monthly production of approximately 27-million day-old pullet chicks in 2024. Cal-Maine is fairly unique in that it operates its own parent flocks capable of providing for the replacement requirements of the company. Their parent-level hens are included in the national average as published by the USDA.

 If Cal-Maine intended to restrict egg production, the question arises as why it expended in excess of $250 million over three years in expansion and conversion to cage-free housing. In 2024 Cal-Maine purchased a broiler production complex from Tyson Foods that was converted to cage-free table egg production. The level of investment by Cal-Maine foods was probably matched by other progressive producers operating flocks in complexes ranging in size from 500,000 to 3 million hens, based on the sale of housing and other installations for upgrades and new complexes by Rose Acre Farms, Herbruck’s Poultry Ranch, Hickman’s Family Farms, Opal Foods, Hillandale Farms and MPS among others.

Farm Action alleges that high prices are in part due to the absorption of competitors by larger producers.  There are a number of reasons why egg producers are acquired.  In some cases, there is insufficient capital to replace obsolete equipment or to convert from conventional cages to alternative housing systems. These smaller farms are acquired by larger and more progressive enterprises.  In many cases, family ownership with attendant risks and commitment to long hours is unattractive to succeeding generations, prompting sales.  In the case of one large 2024 acquisition by Cal-Maine Farms, a foreign-owned enterprise in the U.S. was purchased following the need for the parent company to raise capital by divestment.  Irrespective of the reasons for consolidation within the industry, less efficient producers have been displaced but with levels of production increased to achieve economies of scale.  The U.S. egg industry over decades has demonstrated cyclic expansion over periods of two to three years.  Injudicious expansion previously resulted in periods of financial loss.  As the industry has matured, producers independently projected returns from their investment in increased capacity but exercising prudence. Farmers, families and corporations made their own decisions based on projections of demand, escalation in production costs and market realities.

Perhaps the most significant omission from the Farm Action report is neglecting the impact of the egg-processing sector on supply and demand. Approximately 30 percent of all eggs produced are further-processed into liquids and dehydrated products used in baking, food production in for export.  The egg-breaking sector has suffered disproportionately from HPAI, resulting in diversion of shell eggs to breaking and thereby reducing supply, especially for uncommitted shell eggs.

Farm Action has diligently assembled data on egg production, prices and demand to accompany their submission. Even with cherry picking and bias in interpretation they have failed to make case for collusion and monopolization.  It is anticipated that the Federal Trade Commission and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice will accord the February 12^th submission by Farm Action the same level of review and come to the same conclusion that the allegations lack merit.

1.0 Vaccination against HPAI. An alternative perspective for control.

• APHIS has to emerge from their bubble of self-deception and recognize that

           endemic HPAI cannot be prevented and controlled by biosecurity alone, 

          however stringent. Vaccination as an adjunct to current control measures will   

          be required

• APHIS must urgently develop a plan of action to allow vaccination of pullets and

            laying flocks in high-risk areas with appropriate monitoring

• Notwithstanding introduction of a policy to allow vaccination, losses will continue until adequate levels of immunity are achieved. It is noted that spring migration of waterfowl will commence in a few weeks so that any current delays in implementing protective vaccination will prolong the epornitic.

• As flocks are progressively vaccinated, APHIS and state policy should be directed to early detection of emerging infection with imposition of absolute quarantine with breaking and pasteurization of eggs. Flocks would not be depopulated but with a proportion, comprising susceptible hens dying. Flocks would be monitored for shedding that should cease after three weeks, allowing resumption of marketing, subject to demonstrating freedom from viral shedding.

•  If vaccination is allowed and deployed, indemnity would cease after a period of transition. Producers would benefit from having productive albeit smaller flocks in the event of infection.

2.0   Observations on current industry concerns

• Suspending cage-free mandates will have no short-term appreciable effect on increasing supply and therefore will not reduce the national average shelf price of shell eggs.

• APHIS must expedite approval of inactivated H5N2 (DIVA) oil-emulsion vaccines available from reputable multinational and U.S. manufacturers. Delay will prolong the ongoing epornitic

• Available human H5N1 vaccine should be administered to all who come into contact with live poultry and especially those involved in depopulation of infected flocks. Concurrently seasonal vaccination against prevailing human influenza strains should be encouraged to avert possible recombinant events

• Live bird markets are a danger to human and poultry populations with respect to zoonotic infection. Only a few benefit but the entire population bears the risk of mutation of avian viruses that may have potential catastrophic outcomes.

• Dismissal of critical staff engaged in planning or executing control measures, laboratory diagnosis or applied epidemiological investigations should be reversed. Recent Federal personnel action in health agencies has been analogous to throwing out the baby with the bathwater!

EGG-NEWS has advocated for limited application of vaccination as an adjunct to biosecurity since mid-2022. The series of postings regarding diagnosis, control and  prevention of avian influenza can be retrieved by entering “avian influenza” and "HPAI vaccination” in the SEARCH block

The fault lines dividing protagonists of vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and those against this modality were evident at the UEP Committee briefing on January 24^th and in hallways and show booths during the IPPE. The overwhelming sentiment within the egg production and turkey segments of the U. S. poultry industry is in favor of some application of vaccination as a supplement to existing control measures.  The broiler industry is opposed to vaccination based on the perceived impact on trade, since close to sixteen percent of RTC voume produced in 2014 will be exported.

The epornitic of 2022/5 is not a repetition of 2015.  The realities are:-

• The H5N1 strain with Eurasian genes is now a panornitic strain present in the E.U., Asia, and the Americas with Brazil, thus far, the only major poultry producing nation unaffected. Both Australia and New Zealand are at this time, free of infection due to remoteness from migratory flyways.
•  Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza strain H5N1 is considered by many poultry health professionals to be de facto endemic in the U. S.  This opinion is based on the infection having been diagnosed on commercial farms in more than 35 states, has required the depopulation of 56 million birds to date, is affecting both commercial and backyard flocks and has continued for twelve months. This scorecard is inconsistent with an exotic infection.  Currently, many species of both migratory waterfowl and domestic birds show clinical signs and high mortality unlike previous H5 and H7 strains affecting only domestic poultry. 
• The infection is regularly isolated from free-living mammals, including foxes, skunks, mink, bears, seals and a walrus.  The limited surveillance of wildlife has provided inadequate confirmation of the extent of infection and the range of species involved.
• There is adequate anecdotal evidence to suggest that the disease can be transmitted over relatively short distances by the aerogenous route, thereby reducing the ability of commercial poultry producers to prevent infection through conventional biosecurity procedures.

It is an axiom that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza is the Newcastle disease of the 2020s.  During the 1960s and 1970s, velogenic viscerotropic Newcastle disease (vvND) was a catastrophic infection limiting production in intensive poultry industries in the E.U., Asia and Africa.  This commentator observed the futile attempts of the Department of Agriculture to stamp-out what was evidently an endemic disease in the Republic of South Africa.  When the Government ran out of money, resources and patience, and allowed vaccination, the industry responded by effectively suppressing the infection and restoring both production and profitability.

From comments provided by Julian Madeley, CEO of International Egg Commission, it is obvious that E.U. nations have recognized that HPAI H5N1 is endemic and are moving forward with adoption of vaccination as a component of their control programs.  Stamping-out has proven to be ineffective, especially with free-range flocks as in France.  Cynically it can be stated that this nation has successfully eradicated HPAI but on a successive annual basis over a number of years.

Dr. David Swayne recently organized an international conference on the application of HPAI vaccine. He emphasized the advantages of vaccination as an additional “layer of protection”.  Establishing immunized populations in specific areas reduces the outbreak threshold for a given disease and reduces the financial impact when combined with traditional measures including depletion of affected flocks, quarantine and surveillance activities. Research conducted both at major universities and institutes worldwide and by the bio-pharmaceutics industry have provided a portfolio of vaccines that can be applied to specific types and ages of commercial poultry.

Dr. John Clifford, Veterinary Trade Policy Advisor to the USAPEEC and formerly Chief Veterinary Officer for the USDA, noted the difficulties associated with preventing infection applying current biosecurity practices.  He highlighted the administrative restraints to vaccination that are based on the false premise that HPAI H5N1 is exotic and therefore can be eradicated. It is obvious that USDA-APHIS is using a playbook based on the1984 Pennsylvania epornitic that was self-limiting.  In the absence of epidemiologic investigations that have been urged by state poultry associations and promoted by EGG-NEWS, APHIS continues to expend funds provided by their presumably bottomless piggybank, the Commodity Credit Corporation.

The contention expressed by a Senior Staff Veterinarian In The Poultry Health Strategy and Policy component of USDA-APHIS  that the cost of a surveillance program would be as expensive as the cost of depopulation is fallacious and intended to support business-as-usual. Not only have the private and the public sector experienced losses as a result of HPAI, consumers have had to pay considerably more for eggs and turkey meat. If as is inevitable, infection moves into the broiler segment, HPAI will represent an even greater liability to the economy.

The concerns expressed by the broiler industry regarding trade have current validity.   It would be possible, as Dr. Clifford noted, for changes to be effected in current U.S. policy to allow for limited and controlled vaccination.  Nations importing leg quarters from the U. S. have in large measure endemic HPAI in their own industries or subsistence flocks.  There is no specific ban on trade if a nation vaccinates according to World Organization for Animal Health regulations, providing that surveillance is maintained.  It would be possible for states to certify that a specific complexe or flocks are free of HPAI by applying PCR prior to export of a consignment.  The obstacles to introducing vaccination as an adjunct to limited depopulation are more institutional than scientific.  Administrators of the USDA-APHIS have pursued a policy of  “stamping out” a supposedly exotic disease without accepting the reality that HPAI is a panornitic infection and is de facto endemic in the U.S. After 50 million plus birds depopulated  over a year without achieving eradication, it is difficult for any government agency to admit that they were wrong and accept a change in the approach to control.

Once the attitudinal block is resolved, programs to introduce vaccination on the basis of priorities can proceed.  Breeder flocks and long-lived birds including egg-producing hens should be vaccinated.  Flocks raised in areas of high population density especially with a history of HPAI could then be considered for protection.  Some areas of the nation would remain susceptible based on a low probability of exposure.   At the end of the day, scientific fact and sound principles of epidemiology should prevail.  Effective vaccination will clearly reduce transmission between farms located in close proximity and will reduce replication of the virus both of which are, in fact, the justification for depopulation.

An unspoken component of the current debate over control of HPAI relates to the emergence of a strain of pandemic significance to human populations.  The fact that H5N1 appears to have adapted to mammals should serve as a warning.  Given enough susceptible birds or free-living mammals or for that matter, farmed mink in close association, over time, it is highly likely that a mutation may occur that not only results in infection of human contacts but may evolve to allow human-to-human transmission.  The quicker that HPAI can be suppressed, but not necessarily eradicated in the short term, the greater will be the benefits to the poultry industries of the world and humanity. Vaccination against HPAI must be adopted as a valid consideration in control programs otherwise we will stumble on destroying flocks at great expense with consequential losses to producers and consumers.