Heavens be praised-relief is at hand! The USDA-APHIS will soon have available 2025 calendars with tips on biosecurity. This is a self-delusional exercise in rearranging deck-chairs on the Titanic.

For the edification of those deciding on policy we have lost 37 million hens in 2024 in addition to approximately 3 million turkeys and 5 million broilers with their breeders. It is evident that H5N1 HPAI is endemic in the U.S., is disseminated seasonally by millions of migratory birds and is spread over short distances by the aerogenous route. Power ventilated egg-production complexes are therefore highly vulnerable. Not even the most extreme and efficient structural and operational biosecurity will provide absolute protection in high-risk areas.

The USDA-APHIS has failed stakeholders in the egg and turkey industries who have experienced unprecedented losses and the consumers paying $6 and more per dozen for conventional eggs.  We have not received a report from APHIS based on sound epidemiologic studies since backdated 2023 superficial publications on risk factors in turkey and layer flocks relating to the 2022 phase of the ongoing epornitic.

Segments of he industry need vaccination now! Turkeys, replacement pullets and even mature laying flocks should be protected in high-risk areas. Discussion with APHIS personnel confirms a determination to continue a policy of attempting to eradicate endemic HPAI by  “stamping out” infected flocks ad seriatum. Results show this to be a Sisyphean approach. The reluctance to apply limited strategic vaccination is difficult to comprehend. This may be attributed to:-

• An institutional reluctance to admit that past policy and decisions were wrong
• Overt pressure by a segment of the industry to preserve exports at the expense of consumers and producers of eggs, ducks and turkeys
• A prevailing APHIS mindset that vaccination would be more expensive than depopulation. If this is the case then APHIS should make public their scientific and economic studies. We can then all evaluate the logic and assumptions underlying this doubtful justification to withhold vaccination as an adjunct to existing control measures
• And then it may be that some in positions of authority believe that the infection will just bun out as it did in 2015 albeit with a different strain

The 600 lb. gorilla in the corner is the possibility of a series of additional mutations in circulating H5N1 to become more zoonotic and pathogenic or even contagious as feared by virologists and epidemiologists worldwide. This is acknowledged to be a rare possibility but with extreme consequences. The more susceptible two to four million complexes we have and the inevitability of exposure, the greater will be the possibility of a more zoonotic strain emerging, especially with unprotected and susceptible workers involved in depopulation. Adaptation to mammals with contagion was evident in marine mammals along the Pacific littoral and in Antarctica---and then there have been 675 confirmed dairy herds in California.

This is wake-up time, sophistry and posturing have the makings of a slow-motion train wreck. The infection is not controlled. APHIS should accept reality and recognize the zoonotic potential of H5N1 considered by the WHO as the most likely emerging pandemic strain of human influenza.

The industry needs limited, strategic and controlled flock immunization applying commercially available vaccines now.  France has shown this approach to be feasible and effective.

Big Dutchman USA is the sponsor of this special edition of EGG-NEWS that incorporates a review of USDA data on cage-free production and industry statistics covering December 2024.

Big Dutchman NATURA® Visio--a true open aviary system

The NATURA® Visio is a state-of-the-art installation designed to optimize flock production and to achieve the highest proportion of saleable eggs. The NATURA® Visio aviary system can be retrofitted to existing houses where height restrictions preclude alternatives. The configuration is compatible with multi-level structures. The low profile provides visibility of the flock facilitating management.

NATURA Visio two-tier configuration

The NATURA® Visio comprises two tiers each equipped with feeding, drinkers, and nests. The design incorporates a “step” concept encouraging vertical movement of hens between the upper and lower tiers reducing competition and contributing to an even distribution of the flock within the house. The design incorporates Big Dutchman durability of construction with the floors of the system galvanized with a zinc-aluminum coating to ensure an extended operating life.

Shell downgrades are reduced to a minimum by the design and location of nests on both tiers. Nests are staggered along the length of the installation and hens have access from either side of the system providing them with a comfortable laying environment. Eggs roll from the nests onto two eight-inch-wide belts of polypropylene or woven material to move eggs gently to a single elevator. Eggs laid on the system floor roll directly onto the egg belts without entering the nest, minimizing collisions with birds and other eggs to enhance egg quality. Nest pads fitted with soft fingers reduce fecal soiling and damage to shells. The floor of the nest tilts through 90º to restrict entry during the dark phase of each day. The location of nests and their design reduces the area of belt covers and avoids the need for hens to step up when entering nests. 

NATURA  Visio twin-belt egg collection

The design and location of perches is based on observations of hen behavior and contributes to optimal comfort and air circulation. The position of the approach perches encourages hens to face towards the aisles allowing manure to be collected on belts.

Each tier is equipped with a Champion™ chain feeding system using a specially designed wide trough equipped with lips to reduce wastage. An optional feeding circuit can be installed above the upper tier as required. Hens have access to drinker lines on each tier equipped with 360º nipples and incorporating drip cups.

The NATURA® Visio promotes movement of the flock among the tiers and the litter area allowing natural behaviors to reduce stress, contributing to optimal egg production. Uniform levels of light above the aisle and both the in-system and under-system lighting are compatible with the needs of the flock. Unrestricted airflow contributes to even flock distribution and acceptable moisture content and texture of litter.

NATURA Visio design promotes even distribution of flock among tiers and aisles

The NATURA® Visio aviary system offers the potential for maximum return on investment through harmonizing design with the behavioral requirements and genetic potential of the flock.

NATURA Viseo dimensions

For additional information, contact your regional sales representative or an authorized Big Dutchman distributor. To find the contact details for your area please visit

www.bigdutchmanusa.com/en/egg-production/contact/.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering December 2024, released on January 2^nd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.3 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down fractionally from November 2024. Depopulation was carried out through the fourth quarter as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 5.6 million hens or 5.3 percent from November 2024 to 100.0 million, with extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in December 2024 was down 0.6 percent compared to November 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.8 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was down 4.8 percent in December 2024, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.6 percent, up from 82.2 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to validate the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for December 2024 averaged $5.91 per dozen, up 98.3 percent from $2.98 per dozen in November 2024, reflecting higher demand relative to supply. The December 2024 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding SW, AK. and HI.) was $2.90 per dozen, apparently unchanged from November 2024 based on 1,027 stores. This compares with 652 stores in November and reflects pre-Christmas loss-leaders although there were fewer promotions as the year progressed due to seasonal emergence of HPAI.

The recorded average wholesale price of $5.91 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $6.51 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $2.90 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 124.5 percent (-48.7 percent last month unless prices were raised) over the average wholesale delivered price denoting “loss leaders” among stores featuring cage free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices reaching $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

Additional details on production volumes and pricing are included in the review of USDA statistics accompanying this update.

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
• December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.

• The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
• November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.