Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 29th 2025.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 8.3 percent. Medium size was up a substantial 30.8 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on January 24^th was $6.55 per dozen up $0.68 per dozen (+11.6 percent) from $5.88 last week. This value was approximately $4.05 above the 3-year average of 2.50 per dozen and $4.31 above the corresponding week in 2024 at $2.24 per dozen. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 7.7 percent higher and with the prospect of an increase during the coming week based on the trend of daily increases.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 5.0 percent to $3.18 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 8.4 percent to $3.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.
• This past week shell egg inventory was down 2.0 percent, compared to a fall of 0.3 percent during the previous week. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes sustained consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through February based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the unusual January surge in price intensified by ongoing 2025 losses due to HPAI. The national flock is down by a conservative estimate of 24 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress)
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Losses during 2024 attained approximately 40 million hens with the fall-winter wave in progress and with 2.6 million hens depopulated among four states in January 2025 to date.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with progressively increasing prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now far less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by 3.1 percent overall this past week to 1.43 million cases incorporating a 7.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 1.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend or major storm as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past two months.
• The U.S. egg-production industry experienced the loss of 40 million hens during 2024 together with over 4 million replacement pullets. Ongoing reports of HPAI diagnoses in backyard and non-commercial flocks (‘non-WOAH reportable’) and isolation from free-living domestic non-migratory birds suggests a continuation of outbreaks until waterfowl settle into their winter habitat. Not even the most stringent biosecurity can absolutely prevent introduction of avian influenza virus on dust particles entrained in air entering complexes and houses with negative ventilation. This predicates the limited and strategic application of H5 vaccine in high-risk areas. Over 950 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in sixteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 700 herds were diagnosed in California and 65 in Colorado over the past five months with the high incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On January 29^th the stated total flock of 300.5 million, was down by 1.0 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets per week that entered production to satisfy current demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Missouri, Ohio and California, and considering USDA-APHIS reports of depopulation, it is estimated that the total egg-producing flock at the end of January 2025 is approximately 26 million hens lower (-8.0 percent) than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on January 27^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.3 percent from last week to $7.04 per dozen. Large size was up 9.3 percent to $7.02 per dozen. Mediums were up 30.8 percent to $5.73 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the present week and extending through February

The stock of Medium size was down 5.4 percent, (down 13.6 percent in the Southwest Region but up 12.8 percent in the Southeast). The inventory of Small size was down 5.5 percent over the past week (South Central up 130 percent but Southwest down 45.8 percent). This indicates differences in timing of chick placements and regional demand. Surviving pullets placed in early September 2024 for mid-January 2025 production are now moving from Medium to Large. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.4 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for December 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 60 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response).

Currently producers of generic shell eggs are operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The January 27^th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 61.0 percent to $6.67 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $6.48 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $6.66 per dozen.

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether hens among complexes and farms depopulated during January to date, have been accounted for. Depletion of large complexes in Missouri and Ohio have occurred this past week. Accurate and updated data should be posted during the current winter outbreaks, given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Current values for the populations of the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting January 29^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 0.9 million to 295.1 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This is consistent with sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing and started pullets.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on January 29^th 2025 was 1.0 million lower to 300.5 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 5.4 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens are resuming production. Given the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 26 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes incident cases of HPAI in the fall and winter wave that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 8.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

• Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on January 27^th 2024 was 2.315 million lbs. (1,052 metric tons), and 0.1 percent down from 2.317 million lbs. on January 1^st 2025 and unchanged from last week. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December 2024.
• The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on January 24^th 2024 documented a total stock of 18.5 million pounds (8,403 metric tons) of frozen egg products on December 31^st This quantity was down 38.0 percent from the December 31^st 2023 value of 29.8 million pounds. The December 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 6.9 percent from the previous month ending November 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
• Compared to December 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 43.8 percent to 1.56 million lbs. on December 31^st
• Compared to December 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 60.5 percent to 378,000 lbs. on December 31^st
• A total of 89.5 percent (16.55 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.9 percent) and “Unclassified” (44.6 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective January 28^th 2024 was down 3.1 percent from the previous week, to 1,431,000 million cases. The total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.43 million cases, (1.48 million last week; Down 45,600 cases).

Four USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 2.7 percent from the previous week to 410,400 cases
• The Southeast Region was up 1.8 percent to 266,400 cases
• The South Central Region was down 9.8 percent to 165,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was up 3.4 percent to 163,700 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 1.6 percent to 100,400 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 5.2 percent to 39,200 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,431,000 cases (1,476,600 cases last week), down 3.1 percent, of which 80.1 percent were shell eggs (79.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 7.3 percent to 285,400 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 2.0 percent attaining 1,145,600 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 5.0 percent last week and checks were up 8.4 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (46.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.3 percent) compared to a rise of 5.7 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 45.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On January 27^th 2025 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 442,800 cases (down 0.8 percent from last week at 446,400 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down a substantial 25.1 percent to 29,100 cases on promotion. (was down 19.6% to 38,800 cases)
• Certified Organic, down 5.1 percent to 65,400 cases. (was down 3.5% to 68,900 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 2.7 percent to 348,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 339,200 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

The industry requires a study on all aspects that influence pricing including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on January 24^th 2025 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices representing features as reported January 24^th for the previous week of January 17^th do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs:-

Large, in cartons generic white: None No comparison ($2.24)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.50 Down 5.3% ($2.64)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $6.49 Up 7.1% ($6.06)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.97 Unchanged ($8.97)

National loose, (FOB dock): $6.55 Up 11.4% ($5.88)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $7.24 Up 7.7% ($6.72)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported on January 24^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $6.48 Up 62.0% ($4.00)

Northeast $6.56 Up 62.3% ($4.04)

Southeast $6.62 Up 60.3% ($4.13)

South Central $4.66 Up 60.1% ($4.16)

Combined $6.57 Up 61.0% ($4.08)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on January 2^nd 2025, the number of certified organic hens in December was unchanged from November 2024 at 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined, offset by December flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in December 2024 was down 5.6 million hens (5.3 percent) from November 2024 to 100.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in December 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 100.0 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 120.3 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 36.9 percent of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 39.9 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 301.5 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending January 25^th 2025 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on January 29^th 2024 was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,317,144 cases, (1,321,941 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (52.7 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly higher proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.9 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.8 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks were higher this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 7.3 percent this past week to 285,400 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2024 in-line breakers processed 51.1 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will prevail over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting December 2024, yield from 5,386,714 cases (7,66,144 cases in November) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period December 1^st through December 28^th 2024. Edible yield was 39.6 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 63.2; white, 22.1; yolk, 11.2; dried, 3.4.

All eggs broken during 2024 attained 72.88 million cases, 4.8 percent less than in 2023. Eggs broken in 2025 to date amounted to 5.21 million cases, 8.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty with high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 5.0 percent this past week to $3.18 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.35 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on January 27^th. The price of checks was up 8.4 percent to an average of $3.22 per dozen over the most frequent range of $3.21 to $3.23 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated January 27^th confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.3 percent from last week and Medium size was up 30.8 percent from the previous week. A 2.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price on January 27^th, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 8.6 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $7.06 ($6.50), (estimated by proportion): L. $7.04 ($6.48): M. $5.73 ($4.38)

The 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, on January 27^th (with the previous week in parentheses) was unchanged from last week. The high price is attributed to depletion of flocks due to HPAI. In January 2024 the USDA documented a hen population of 9.1 million declining to 7.8 million in July and 4.4 million at the end of December 2024. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states.

1. $8.99 ($8.99); L. $8.97 ($8.97); M. $7.60 ($7.60)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on January 29^th 2025 was up 1.7 points from the last weekly report to +5.5 with a 3.1 percent decrease in total inventory and a 2.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

COMMENTS

USDA reported the depopulation of 3.9 million laying hens as a result of HPAI this past week. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in five states (CT, MA, VT, IL and OR) confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. Cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in AR, GA, MO and VA, amounting to 0.2 million this past week. Losses among breeder and growing turkeys in MN, OH, MO and IN amounted to 0.5 million this past week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec.

Approximate losses reported in 2024 include:-

• 40 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 4 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
• 0 million broilers with breeders
• 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
• 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.