USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, December 26^th 2024.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up a substantial 23.0 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 7.2 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on December 20^th was $4.07 per dozen up $0.07 per dozen (+1.7 percent) from $4.01 last week. This value was approximately $1.57 above the 3-year average of $2.50 per dozen and $2.40 above the corresponding week in 2023 at $1.67 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was down 5.0 percent, compared to a fall of 3.0 percent during the previous week. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 16.9 percent higher but with the immediate prospect of a plateau during the current week based on daily increases. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes a sharp seasonal surge in consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through December based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the Christmas surge and complicated by incident cases of HPAI. Relatively higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to ongoing 2024 losses due to HPAI reducing the national flock by a conservative estimate of 14 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress) concurrent with high seasonal consumer and institutional demand.
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Year-to-date losses have attained approximately 31 million hens with the fall wave in progress.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with moderating prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline into the Christmas surge. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by 4.6 percent overall this past week to 1.45 million cases including a 3.0 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 0.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past month.
• The U.S. poultry industry has moved from a quiescent period regarding HPAI into a fall upsurge with incident cases in northern Utah, southern Washington State and Oregon in October and the loss of three complexes in the Central Valley of California in November and early December. A large complex holding in excess of 4 million hens followed by a second 1.6 million complex were depopulated in Sioux County, Iowa . Two cases were diagnosed in non-commercial flocks in Hawaii with the presence of H5 virus in wastewater currently under investigation. California has recorded outbreaks on broiler-growing farms in four counties recently with ongoing losses in broiler and turkey growing farms. Canada has diagnosed numerous cases in The Fraser Valley of British Columbia and outbreaks in Alberta Quebec and Saskatchewan. Over 850 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in fifteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 680 herds were diagnosed in California over the past three months with the incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On December 26^th the stated total flock of 312.1 million, was down by 3.3 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production to satisfy the Christmas surge in demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Iowa and California, and irrespective of weekly USDA figures, it is estimated that the total egg- producing flock in mid-December is approximately 14 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 9.7 percent to $3.03 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 2.0 percent to $2.88 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on December 20^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 23.0 percent from last week to $5.52 per dozen. Large size was up 23.1 percent to $5.50 per dozen. Mediums were up 7.2 percent to $3.86 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the coming week followed by a post-Christmas plateau and fall into January

The stock of Medium size was down 3.8 percent, (down 21.9 percent in the Southwest Region) and the inventory of Small size was up 8.0 percent over the past week (Midwest up 130 percent) suggesting that additional pullets placed in early August for the mid-December surge in demand have commenced their production cycle. This has implications for prices during January 2025. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.0 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for November 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.

Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The December 23^rd edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 18.4 percent to $4.56 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $4.47 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.63 per dozen.

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether the 6.7 million hens among four complexes depopulated in California during November and December to date, the 5.8 million in Iowa, 2.0 million in California have been accounted for. Depletion of a large complex in Northwest Ohio is currently in progress. Any delay in posting accurate and updated data, during fall outbreaks, should be avoided given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Accurate and current values for the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting December 26^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 4.4 million to 304.8 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is lower than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This contention is questioned given sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing. Based on inventory level and prices, the population of hens producing table eggs and breaking stock should now be balanced with post-Christmas demand by consumers. Industrial and food service off-take is stable, attaining pre-COVID levels. Prices for shell eggs established a plateau in late September followed by a progressive rise through October to high seasonal levels before the pre-Thanksgiving surge but then followed by a brief decline. The seasonal increase before Christmas was evident but a post-holiday plateau may replace the seasonal decline in January 2025 since additional loss due to HPAI is anticipated.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on December 26^th 2024 was 3.3 million lower to 312.1 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 7.3 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens were resuming production. Given the season and the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 14 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes cases of HPAI that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 4.3 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on December 23^rd 2024 was again 2.319 million lbs. (1,054 metric tons), unchanged for five consecutive weeks (?) and 3.0 percent down from 2.338 million lbs. on November 1^st and unchanged from 2.319 million lbs. on December 1^st 2024. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of November.

• The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on December 23^rd 2024 documented a total stock of 23.7 million pounds (10,780 metric tons) of frozen egg products on November 30^th This quantity was down 19.2 percent from the November 30^th 2023 value of 29.4 million pounds. The November 30^th 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 4.0 percent from the previous month ending October 31^st 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
• Compared to November 30^th 2023, the inventory of whites was down 31.6 percent to 1.68 million lbs. on November 30^th
• Compared to November 30^th 2023 yolk inventory was down 62.7 percent to 433,000 lbs. on November 30^th

A total of 91.1 percent (21.61 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.1 percent) and “Unclassified” (46.0 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective December 23^rd 2024 was down 4.6 percent from the previous week, following a drop of 2.5 percent the previous week. This suggests increased orders to maintain the pipeline through DCs to stores in the pre-Christmas week. Now that orders have resumed, the total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.45 million cases, (1.52 million last week; Down 69,700 cases). The U.S. population of laying hens at this time is influenced by:-

• Losses following outbreaks of HPAI with the depopulation of over 37 million hens since April 1^st. Losses are offset by approximately 22 million pullets transferred each month year-to-date
• The population unaffected by HPAI, fires or climatic extremes.
• Flocks retained after molting with an anticipated increase in this category as influenced by prevailing wholesale egg prices, and indirectly responding to flock depopulation from HPAI.
• Started pullets from chick placements during early August 2024. Going forward, younger hens will assume a larger proportion of the national flock as more flocks are placed compensating for the flocks depleted due to HPAI.

Five USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 7.8 percent from the previous week to 411,800 cases
• The Southeast Region was down 0.6 percent to 272,900 cases
• The South Central Region was down 2.2 percent to 206,300 cases
• The Northeast Region was down 8.8 percent to 127,500 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 8.9 percent to 84,200 cases.
• The Northwest Region was up 2.7 percent to 49,500 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,447,600 cases (1,517,300 cases last week), down 4.6 percent, of which 79.6 percent were shell eggs (79.9 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 3.0 percent to 295,300 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 5.0 percent attaining 1,52,300 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement. Reoccurrence of HPAI affecting egg-production complexes in three states during October and four large egg complexes and a number of large broiler and turkey farms in California during November and December and two major cases in Iowa have influenced buyers who were previously unconcerned over short-term supply to restock inventory.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 9.7 percent last week and checks were up 2.0 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 53.6 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (68.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 23.1 percent) compared to a rise of 5.9 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 53.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On December 23^rd 2024 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 402,000 cases (down 3.8 percent from last week at 417,700 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down a substantial 33.1 percent to 28,500 cases on promotion. (was up 27.6% to 42,600 cases)
• Certified Organic, up 3.9 percent to 68,800 cases. (was down 6.9% to 66,200 cases)
• Cage-Free category, down 1.4 percent to 304,700 cases. (was up 8.0% to 308,800 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Existing and proposed individual state legislation mandating sale of only cage-free eggs will support most of the completed and in-progress transition from cages but significant additional re-housing will not be completed by the beginning of 2025 as projected previously by most industry observers. The constitutional status of Proposition #12 was confirmed by SCOTUS in a May 11^th 2023 decision with specific reference to the Dormant Commerce Clause relating to interstate trade. Legislation rolling back California Proposition #12 (‘EATS Act”) was not incorporated into the delayed 2023 Farm Bill despite lobbying by pork producers. Many retail chains are ‘renEGGing’ on or extending their time commitments to achieve an acceptable transition to cage-free eggs despite coercion by animal welfare groups.

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

A comprehensive structured market research project on cage-free eggs has provided an indication of consumer willingness to pay for this attribute*.

*Caputo,V. et al The Transition to Cage-Free Eggs. February 2023

The industry requires a study on other aspects including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2024 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

The AEB could benefit the Industry by concentrating on the 97 percent of production consumed domestically through sponsoring comprehensive economic studies by teams of agricultural economists in academia. This would be more productive than expending check-off funds on quixotic initiatives to expand exports of generic eggs that are limited to the needs of importers in relation to availability and prices offered by exporters

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on December 20^th 2024 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices reported December 20^th for the previous week (do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs)

Large, in cartons generic white: $2.14 Down 25.7% ($2.88)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.99 Down 19.6% ($2.50)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $4.48 Up 18.8% ($3.77)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.19 Up 18.0% ($6.89)

National loose, (FOB dock): $4.07 Up 1.2% ($4.02)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $5.74 Up 16.9% ($4.91)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported December 20^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $4.47 Up 18.8% ($3.76)

Northeast $4.52 Up 18.6% ($3.81)

Southeast $4.61 Up 18.2% ($3.90)

South Central $4.63 Up 18.1% ($3.92)

Combined $4.56 Up 18.4% ($3.85)

USDA weekly prices for shell eggs by category reflects the previous week ending December 20^th compared with prices from December 13^th.

USDA Certified Organic, Brown, Large: $5.04 ($6.42)

Cage-Free Brown, Large: $2.71 ($2.50)

Omega-3 Enriched Specialty, White, Large: not released ($3.51)

Generic White, Large Grade A $2.14 ($2.88)

The advertisedfeatured price for Large white grade A for the week ending December 20^th was down 74 cents per dozen (-25.7 percent) from last week at $2.88 per dozen. This is attributed to stores offering loss-leaders to attract large pre-Christmas baskets. The market has demonstrated continued fluctuation in advertised retail promotional prices. Current supply is lower than consumer demand reflecting the variable number of features over the past month. The decrease in inventory as reported by the USDA for the previous three weeks is due to restoration of orders by chains that have moved inventory into the pipeline in advance of the Christmas week. Independent producers and some breakers continue to divert shell eggs from breaking to the higher-priced shell market.

The USDA benchmark-advertised retail price for certified organic large brown for the week was $5.04 per dozen, down $1.38 per dozen (-21.5 percent) from the USDA price of $6.42 per dozen for the week ending December 13^th. Cage-free brown was featured at $2.99 per dozen, up $0.49 per dozen (+19.6 percent). Week-over-week single digit fluctuations expressed as a percentage can be expected in the stock of specialty and organic eggs based on the small base of these categories.

The price differential for certified organic was enigmatically $0.05 per dozen lower than for cage-free brown in stores that featured these categories. This should have resulted in greater demand for certified organic at the expense of cage-free brown.

Cage-free Large white was featured at $3.29 per dozen (only 83 stores), $0.30 per dozen (10.0 percent) higher than cage-free brown at $2.99 per dozen (327 stores)

The relative proportions of promotions for the major classifications this past week were:-

• Conventional categories, 8 percent (was down from 58 percent)
• Cage-free categories, 78 percent (was down from 26 percent)
• Certified organic categories, 10 percent (down from 17 percent)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on December 2^nd 2024, the number of certified organic hens in November was down 0.6 percent from October to 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined offset by November flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in November 2024 was down 1.1 million (1.0 percent) percent from October 2024 to 105.6 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in November 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 105.6 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 125.9 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 38.6 percent (October 39.1 percent) of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 41.1 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 306 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

The accuracy of individual monthly values was previously questioned given a history of either constant numbers or a sharp change in successive months as documented over the past two years. It is presumed that the October release reflects a realistic number of producing hens housed cage-free during August 2024. Precise quarterly reports would be more suitable for the industry in planning expansion and allocation of capital than inaccurate monthly values.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending December 21^st 2024 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on December 26^th 2024 was up 1.7 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,390,083 cases, (1,366,816 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 48.7 percent (49.3 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly lower proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.6 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (72.4 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks rose fractionally this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 3.0 percent this past week to 295,300 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2023 in-line breakers processed 49.9 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will become evident over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting November 2024, yield from 5,766,144 cases (7,159,323 cases in October) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period November 3^rd through November 30^th 2024. Edible yield was 39.1 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 61.2; white, 23.5; yolk, 12.0; dried, 3.3.

All eggs broken during 2023 attained 79.09 million cases, 2.9 percent more than in 2022. Eggs broken in 2024 to date amounted to 72.88 million cases, 4.7 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty following the ending of COVID support, high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 9.7 percent this past week to $3.03 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.05 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on December 23^rd. The price of checks was up 2.0 percent to an average of $2.88 per dozen over the most frequent range of $2.86 to $2.89 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated December 23^rd 2024 confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 23.1 percent from last week and Medium size was up 7.2 percent from the previous week. A 5.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The December 23^rd 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 17.2 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $5.41 ($4.62), (estimated by proportion): L. $5.38 ($4.59): M. $3.65 ($3.50)

The December 23^rd 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, (with the previous week in parentheses) was up 9.5 percent from last week, attributable to depletion of over five million hens representing 50 percent of the state flock since September. A third of the laying hens in the state were lost during the 4^th quarter of 2023 but most have been replaced. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states. In October the USDA claimed a questionable hen population of 8.2 million but in reality is presumably now between six and seven million. The current hen population in California should be compared to 10.7 million during October 2023.

1. $8.99 ($8.21); L. $8.97 ($8.19); M. $6.15 ($5.95)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on December 26^th 2024 was up 2.4 points from the last weekly report to +10.5 with a 4.6 percent decrease in total inventory and a 5.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

The USDA Monthly Report covering November 2024 production including text, tables, data and prices is posted in this edition and the Q1 FY 2025 financial results for Cal-Maine Foods can be accessed under the STATISTICS tab.

Egg Products

Again the USDA did not release complete data for egg products for the past week. The USDA has not posted a report on dried egg inventory since March 13^th 2020 due to inability to obtain data from producers, and will not issue reports for the immediate future. This situation is unacceptable given the extent of trading and the resources of the USDA.

Dried Egg

There was no USDA release for the most recent week ending December 20^th. Values over past months illustrate the trend in prices influenced by HPAI depopulation and subsequent re-population:-

Frozen Egg

On December 20^th the USDA posted the range in prices for frozen whole egg for the previous week. Prices in cents per lb. are shown for products during the previous week:-

1. Extreme range as released

In the absence of regular and accurate weekly data it is not possible to assess trends in demand for categories of egg products by the manufacturing, food service and export sectors. Since trading is occurring USDA should be able to ascertain and post prices.

November averages (October): Whole. $2.29, ($1.76); Whites, $1.21, ($1.14); Yolks, $3.10, ($2.90).

Liquid Egg

Values for Whites and Yolks covering certified truckload quantities have been released at irregular intervals over past months. The release for December 20^th listed Whole egg at 230 cents per lb. for the current week (range 225 to 238 cents per lb.) There were no values for either Whites or Yolks.

November values (October in parentheses) were: -

Whole, $2.05, ($1.61); Whites, $0.85 ($0.61); Yolks, $3.37, ($2.37). (for certified product)

COMMENTS

USDA reported the depopulation of 2.0 million hens in California and 0.7 million in Iowa over the period December 17^th to 24^th as a result of HPAI this past week. Additional cases are awaiting confirmation in California and Ohio. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in eleven states confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. The H5N1 strain B3.13 infection has affected approximately 890 diagnosed dairy herds in sixteen states with cases rising to 675 in California, mainly in the Central Valley reflecting mandated surveillance of bulk milk. California issued an emergency declaration this pest week to facilitate a response to HPAI in poultry flocks and dairy herds. Two cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in Mississippi and Alabama this week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec. As the end of November 83 farms are undergoing depletion or decontamination with 73 affected farms in British Columbia.

Approximate losses in commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI and updates during the 2022/3 phase of the current epornitic included:-

• 6,900,000 broilers on 28 farms in 8 states during 2002 - 2023
• 330,000 broiler breeders on 11 farms in 6 states.
• 360,000 upland game birds October through December 2023.
• 14,100,000 turkeys including breeder flocks in 8 states during 2022 and through 2023 year-to-date.
• 52,300,000 egg-production hens in total with 95 percent on 37 large complexes above 0.5 million in addition to 3,500,000 pullets with a total of 54 locations in 12 states. Pullet mortality does not include “at risk” replacements depleted on affected complexes with contiguous pullet rearing. During the fourth quarter of 2023 more than 13.0 million hens were depopulated in 13 outbreaks.

Approximate losses reported in 2024 to date include:-

• 37 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 0 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
• 5 million broilers with breeders
• 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
• 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

This past week the industry depleted 2.0 million egg production hens in two complexes in California and 0.7 million in two farms in Iowa; 0.2 million turkeys (MN, MI, MO and IA); 140,000 broilers (AL and MS) and Non-WOAH flocks in 11 states attesting to the geographic spread of the virus , (CA, KS, LA, MN, MO, ND, OH, OR, SD, VT and WI)

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

It is hoped that APHIS recognizes the need to provide the industry with science-based recommendations to prevent additional incident HPAI outbreaks. This agency has been silent on risk factors and epidemiology of HPAI. Release of information presumes prompt analysis and reporting of whatever field and molecular epidemiology is collected and processed. APHIS is presumed to have planned epidemiologic field studies and allocated personnel and other resources in anticipation of the now ongoing fall 2024 resurgence in HPAI and accordingly science-based epidemiologic studies are anticipated.

Large complexes in six states were infected during Fall 2023 and again in spring and fall waves in 2024 to date. Accordingly appropriate guidance from USDA-APHIS is expected by the Industry before more incident cases are diagnosed. A release on the investigation of risk factors associated with outbreaks in dairy herds and a comment on the specifics of mutations that have occurred in viruses isolated from infected animals and the serologic status of workers in contact with infected flocks should be shared with virologists, epidemiologists and the poultry industry.