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Tariff Threat Raises Concern for Railroads

12/04/2024

The possible introduction of tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico will have implications for railroads operating among the three members of the USMCA.

 

In 2023, a merger created Canadian Pacific Kansas City Rail that operates 20,000 miles of track linking Atlantic and Pacific Canadian ports through to the Midwest and southward through Texas to industrial locations in Mexico.

 

Canadian Pacific Kansas City was predicated on the basis of unencumbered flow of commodities and manufactured goods and would capitalize on the respective agricultural and manufacturing potential of all three nations.

 

Optimists consider that the threat of tariffs by President-elect Donald J. Trump is an opening gambit prior to discussions to stem the northward migration of asylum seekers who are attempting to join the job market.  Investors in the railroad believe that even with some tariffs, traffic will not be diminished.  They cite data relating to 2018 through 2023 during which tariffs were imposed. Over the period freight value increased by 28 percent and volume was17 percent higher.  Prediction that revenue will continue after the inauguration is denoted by recovery of the CPKC share price since the November 5th election. CPKC closed on election afternoon at $79.33 falling to $73.99 on November 15th. Since this close the share price recovered to $77.06 on November 25th. CPKC has demonstrated a 12-month range in price of $72.22 to $91.58