EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report. This data is correlated and interpreted in the Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report posted on EGG-NEWS mailed on Fridays each week.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering November 2024, released on December 2^nd 2024, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.3 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down 0.6 million (2.4 percent) from October 2024. Depopulation was carried out in October and November as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 1.0 million hens or 0.9 percent from October 2024 to 105.6 million, with extensive flock depopulation during the month. Hen numbers posted by the USDA for November are questioned as to accuracy taking into account chick placements and the magnitude of depopulation figures released by APHIS.

The number of eggs collected is accepted as accurate but since the values for average hen-week  production are unacceptably high this suggests that the denominator reflecting the number of hens is probably incorrect. Alternatively if conventional eggs from cages are deceptively marketed as cage-free, or if cage free eggs are packed as certified Organic, assuming an accurate number of hens over a given month, the apparent hen-week value would be disproportionally high. The respective numbers of hens claimed for organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the net contribution of chick placements 20-weeks previously, HPAI depopulation and age-related depletion and should correspond to monthly supply data and inventory extending over successive quarters. Unlike conventional cage production cage-free hens are not generally molted reducing this possible reason for error in calculating rates of production.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in November 2024 was down 3.1 percent compared to October 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.4 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was down 1.6 percent in November 2024, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.2 percent, down from 82.4 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to validate the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of  a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for November 2024 averaged $4.55 per dozen, up 10.4 percent from $4.12 per dozen in October 2024, reflecting presumably higher demand relative to supply. The November 2024 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding SW, AK. and HI.) was $2.90 per dozen, down 41 cents cents per dozen (-12.3 percent) from October 2024 based on 652 stores. This compares with 442 in October and compared to 4,484 stores in August confirming fewer promotions as the year progressed and with seasonal emergence of HPAI.    

The recorded average wholesale price of $4.55 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $5.15 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $2.90 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 48.7 percent (-28.3 percent last month unless prices were raised) over the average wholesale delivered price denoting “loss leaders” among stores featuring cage free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices reaching $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

Based on the importance of cage-free production, with more than 40 percent of eggs produced, accurate and consistent figures are required by the industry. The USDA-AMS issues the Cage-Free report on volumes and prices at monthly intervals for the information of stakeholders. There is obvious doubt as to the accuracy of individual monthly flock numbers in the monthly cage free reports especially with a marked change at the end of a quarter as with values for October 1^st, or from the previous month without obvious cause, or alternatively when there is no change in cage-free or organic flocks for sequential months.

It is suggested that USDA should consider a quarterly report with accurate hen data. This would be more useful to the industry for planning and marketing decisions. Price data is available each week from other USDA reports.

Subscribers are referred to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the Egg Price and Inventory Report in EGG-NEWS E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.