The November 5^th release of the Purdue University-CME Group Economy Barometer Index for row-crop production showed an unexpected rise in October by a substantial 27 points to 115 points. The Index of Current Conditions was up 19 points from September to 95. The Future Expectations Index was up 30 points points to 124. The Index is derived from the responses of 400 U.S. farmers and was conducted from October 14^th to 18^th.

Evident conclusions from the survey are that farmers were more optimistic in October compared to September but there are still concerns over the prices for their commodities despite (but due to) bountiful yields in 2024. In contrast sentiment is reinforced by declining inflation, lower interest rates and hence production costs. The outstanding concerns were:-

• A decline in prices for corn and soybeans reflecting disparity between supply and demand
• Declining prospects for exports with competition from South American producers and declining demand by China
• High prices for seed, fertilizer and other inputs
• The prospect of higher energy costs with turbulence in the Middle East
• The outcome of the 2024 national election creating uncertainty over farm policy and support
• Failure of Congress to pass a Farm Bill
• Decreased demand for biofuels

Many respondents indicated that they would carry higher debt burdens through 2024 and into 2025 mainly due to increased costs of inputs including seed, fuel and fertilizer for the current season. More than half of the participants considered that the financial condition of their farms was inferior to 2023 with the Farm Financial Performance Index at 90 for October 2024 compared to 93 for October 2023. The September 2024 value was only 68, indicating a surge in positive sentiment from the preceding month.