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Purdue University Agricultural Economy Index Falls in August

10/02/2024

The October 1st release of the Purdue University-CME Group Economy Barometer Index for row-crop production fell in September by a substantial 12 points to 88 points. The Index of Current Conditions was down 7 points from August to 76. The Future Expectations Index was down 14 points to 94. The Index is derived from the responses of 400 U.S. farmers and was conducted from September 9th to 13th.

 

Evident conclusions from the survey is that farmers have profound concerns over the prices for their commodities by despite (but due to) bountiful yields in 2024 declining inflation, lower interest rates. The outstanding concerns were:-

 

  • A sharp drop in prices for corn and soybeans reflecting disparity between supply and demand
  • Declining prospects for exports with competition from South American producers and declining demand by China
  • High prices for seed, fertilizer and other inputs
  • The prospect of higher energy costs with turbulence in the Middle East
  • The outcome of the 2024 national election creating uncertainty over farm policy and support
  • Failure of Congress to pass a Farm Bill
  • Decreased demand for biofuels

 

Many respondents indicated that they would carry higher debt burdens through 2024 and into 2025 mainly due to increased costs of inputs including seed, fuel and fertilizer for the current season.