Currently, the poultry industry is in a relatively inactive stage with respect to incident cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).  This may change during fall months with the onset of southward migration of waterfowl and also dissemination of virus by domestic birds.  In addition, 2024 witnessed the emergence of bovine influenza-H5N1 with spillover to poultry complexes in Michigan and Colorado and probably responsible for the September case on a   turkey farm in Merced County, California.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza should be regarded as seasonally and regionally endemic if not by definition ‘endemic’ in the U.S. This is based on the duration of the epornitic and the geographic extent of outbreaks.

Recently, Marcus Rust, CEO of Rose Acre Farms, the second-ranked egg producer by volume, advocated for vaccination in an interview with Reuters.  Rust noted, “We are farmers, and we want our animals to live.” Along with competitors his family company has suffered losses from HPAI and has relocated a farm to establish conceptual biosecurity.  The USDA-APHIS should recognize that the infection is endemic at least regionally and seasonally. Since the virus can be spread over even relatively short distances by the aerogenous route, even the most intensive biosecurity is inadequate to provide absolute protection.

A number of legislators are pressing USDA to review their no-vaccination policy with respect to practicality and cost. Vaccination to protect flocks against HPAI is a bipartisan issue as denoted by the representations to USDA by Representatives Randy Feenstra (R-IA) and Jim Costa (D-CA). The Agency appears to be unresponsive, citing real or perceived concerns over export of broiler leg quarters. This is an important and valid consideration although whether absolute is subject to question. The export restraint should not be a deal-breaker to the detriment of the entire poultry industry.  In calculating costs, USDA appears to ignore the effect of HPAI on consumers.  It is calculated that with seven billion dozen eggs sold in 2022, and at an average increase of $2 per dozen over the year consumers paid an additional $14 billion for their eggs. The additional cost was due to disequilibrium between supply and demand with as many as 50 million hens depopulated as a result of HPAI over the year. Currently the U.S. hen population is approximately 18 million lower than the pre-HPAI level of 326 million despite routine repopulation and retention of flocks. Eggs demonstrate noteworthy price elasticity resulting in large fluctuations in either direction caused by small differences in supply.  Unfortunately, this reality is fueled by the prevailing price discovery system that enables buyers to bend the market over the short term by holding back on orders, inducing a fall in price and then restocking DCs and shelves.

USDA also appears refractory to the issue of possible emergence of a pandemic of a zoonotic strain of HPAI.  Mutations resulting in the emergence of the B3.13 variant capable of propagating in mammary tissue of dairy cows and resulting in mild conjunctivitis and upper respiratory infection should be an additional justification to reduce the number of susceptible commercial hens and turkeys through vaccination.

Commercially available vaccines could be purchased from multinational suppliers on an off-the shelf basis but this will require USDA approval for administration in the U.S.  Claiming that additional research for development of a new or specific “U.S. vaccine” would be necessary is simply a delaying tactic to avoid making a policy decision. Accepting vaccination would effectively recognize the futility of efforts by the USDA to eradicate HPAI since the 2015 epornitic.  Opposition to vaccination that appears inherent to APHIS thinking is now largely invalid given the availability of PCR assay to certify flocks free of infection and to distinguish between infected and immunized commercial flocks and regional populations.

It is hoped that reality will convince USDA administrators of the need to allow vaccination against HPAI as an adjunct to structural and operational biosecurity. It is envisaged that initially vaccination would be limited to turkeys, breeders and laying hens in high-risk areas. This would be coupled with surveillance and certification to meet the challenge of exports.

 For too long, USDA-APHIS has clung to an outmoded and ineffective policy of attempting to eradicate an endemic infection. Given the reservoir comprising domestic migratory waterfowl and introduction by migratory marine species of birds, USDA is ignoring epidemiologic reality at considerable cost to producers, consumers and the national debt.