Despite the Phase-I Trade Agreement with China concluded in January 2020, imports of U.S. soybeans have not conformed to the intent of the Agreement.  In 2023, Brazil supplied 70 percent of soybean imports by China with the U.S. share at 24 percent.  In contrast during 2017 the U.S. exported 32.9 million tons (1,209 million bushels) of soybeans to China falling sharply thereafter as a result of a 25 percent duty to 17 million tons (625 million bushels) in 2018.  Trade wars involving punitive and reciprocal tariffs are effectively paid by consumers and also by farmers in the case of agricultural commodities.

In recent weeks, buyers in China have ordered 12 million tons (440 million bushels) of soybeans for July delivery up from 10 million tons (367 million bushels) in June.  The renewed interest in U.S. soybeans is based on current prices and the needs of crushers in China.  An additional concern is the presumed trade polices of a subsequent Administration that may increase tariffs with resulting countermeasures.  Currently exchange rates between Brazil and China and shipping costs favor Brazil and neighboring nations at the expense of the U.S.