According to USDA-FAS GAIN Report BR2024-09 released on May 16^th, severe flooding will affect the agricultural output of the state of Rio Grande do Sul.  High rainfall for the past two weeks has led to the displacement of more than 500,000 residents of the state and contributed to 145 fatalities with 130 still missing.  Local authorities have placed a preliminary estimate of losses at over $1.2 billion.

Rainfall exceeded the 1991 to 2020 average by a factor of eight.  Unprecedented rains are attributed to the end of the current El Nino event coupled with a heatwave impacting southwest Brazil.  Crops including soybeans, rice, wheat, corn have been impacted with an indirect effect on livestock.  Unseasonable rains and damage have followed two seasons of drought that reduced output from the state.  Only 75 percent of the soybean crop had been harvested at the time of the torrential rains. The remainder will be lost representing 20 percent of the state output and four percent of the total from Brazil.  CONAB the trade association representing agricultural production estimates that the 2023/2024 crop will attain 146.5 million metric tons, 10 percent below the initial forecast of 162.0 million metric tons.  The May WASDE Report estimated soybean production by Brazil at 154 million metric tons.

The state poultry association (ASGAV) estimated losses of 250,000 broilers on 20 farms and 150,000 laying hens. Rio Grande do Sul accounts for 16 percent of poultry meat exports

In addition to field damage, infrastructure including roads, bridges and access to ports were damaged, reducing exports over the short term. The disaster in Rio Grande Do Sul will ultimately affect world prices for soybeans and indirectly U.S. production costs for eggs and poultry meat.