Following emergence of a weak El Nino in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center has gathered data suggesting that the current event will be among the most severe yet encountered.  This has implications for availability and prices of ingredients and the need for additional food aid to currently impacted nations and regions.. 

The major effects  of the 2023 El Nino will be: -

• Below average rain fall in southern Africa, west and east Africa and the Latin American and Caribbean regions increasing demand for corn and other coarse grains.
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• Flooding in east Africa will impact crops during the January-March 2023/2024 rainy seasons.
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• Declines in crop yields are anticipated in Latin America and the Caribbean with sharp reduction in Central America.  The emerging El Nino has already depressed seasonal rainfall in Honduras and Haiti and affected transit through the Panama Canal.  Among subsistence farmers in these nations, availability of seed will be restricted, impacting harvests in 2024.

• In the U.S. El Nino effects include:-

• Reduced rainfall in the eastern Midwest states with higher average temperatures during winter extending into Spring
• Reduced snowfall over the Rockies with implications for California water supply in 2014
• Above average temperatures in the northwest and northeast quadrants of the U.S.
• Increased precipitation in southern states.