According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the water level in the Mississippi River at Memphis on October 8th was minus 10.2 feet from standard, up from minus 10.6 feet at the end of September. From July 8th through the end of September, grain shipments on the lower Mississippi were down 35 percent from the corresponding period in 2022 and 53 percent lower than the five-year average. With stabilization of water levels, barge traffic has increased with 296 barges moving down river during the week ending September 30th, up 163 from the previous week. This corresponds to a grain volume of 376,000 tons, up 92 percent from the previous week.
Grain transport rates have been moderated by low export sales. Using an index of 100 established in 2000, barge rates declined from 556 to 549 during the last week of September but up from 425 during the first week of that month. Tow sizes limited to five barge widths and loading from elevators at St. Louis are 32 percent down compared to 2022.
The USDA noted, “If low-water conditions on the Mississippi River system continue, lack of precipitation may lead to increased restrictions that would further shrink an already tight barge supply. The third quarter summary added, “A rising harvest demand with a shrinking barge supply may lead to above average spot rates that approach last year’s record. During the late fall of 2022, it cost as much to ship corn from loading points on the upper Mississippi River to export terminals near New Orleans as it did for onward ocean freight to Asia. This placed the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage to other producing nations including Argentine and Brazil.