The U.S. will export 43.8 million metric tons (1,724 million bushels) of corn for the marketing year 2022/2023 ending August 31st. This represents a decade low and is 24.8 percent of all global corn trade. In contrast, Brazil will export a record 55.0 million metric tons (2,195 million bushels) for the 2023/2024 market year. According to the June 9th USDA-WASDE, U.S. corn exports will rise to 53.342 million metric tons (2,099 million bushels), approximately 12.5 percent of availability but still lower than the 55.0 million metric tons (2,165 million bushels) predicted for Brazil. During the past five years, Brazil has increased corn exports, especially to China.
The situation for the U.S. could deteriorate if Mexico goes forward with the intended ban on GM corn since 90 percent of U.S. output is from GM cultivars. A recent announcement by Mexico allows importation of GM corn for industrial applications and livestock feeding.
Challenges facing the corn industry are both relatively static ethanol production and demand for livestock feeding. Accordingly corn producers will be even more dependent on exports to maintain domestic price. It is self-evident that a decline in demand for ethanol will reduce domestic price benefitting the poultry industry.