The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have confirmed the emergence of an El Nino event that will gradually strengthen through the second half of 2023. An El Nino event is indicated by sea temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific to rise by 0.5C above the long-term average.  El Nino and La Nina events are usually 12-months in duration although it is noted that the past La Nina persisted for over two years.

Petteri Taalas the Secretary General of the WMO stated, “The onset of El Nino will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and trigger more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean.” He continued, “Early warnings and anticipatory action for extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods.”

The WMO in May predicted a 66 percent probability that annual average near-surface global temperature will increase by 1.5C between 2023 and 2027.  This threshold was established in the 2015 Paris Agreement and is recognized as a tipping point with dramatic shifts in the Earth’s environment if exceeded.

For further information on the El Nino and La Nina Southern Oscillation, access El Nino under the SEARCH tab.