Weekly Commodity and Energy Report: June 8^th 2023.

 OVERVIEW

At close of trading on June 8^th CME corn was up 3.4 percent compared to the previous week to 609 cents per bushel for July delivery. The increase was marked by large inter-day fluctuation influenced by the wheat market, short covering and concern over predictions of hot and dry weather in the corn belt. Price was influenced by the rapid pace of planting and emergence with predictions of a large crop with high ending stocks for the 2023 season as documented in the May WASDE. Cancellation of orders by China has depressed prices with a contrary effect from higher ethanol production and demand.

Soybeans were up 2.8 percent from last week to 1,362 cents per bushel for July delivery. Soybean meal was up 1.2 percent to $404 per ton for July delivery. Price will fluctuate to reflect soybeans and the demand for soy oil. The market has now accepted projections of crop size and higher stocks from the old crop as documented in the April WASDE Report and the forecast included in the May WASDE Report for the 2023 crop.

WTI was 0.7 percent higher from last week at $72.31 per barrel at close of trading on June 7^th . This is despite the May announcement of an intended production cut by OPEC and an intended voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia of one million barrels per day announced on June 4^th.

Factors influencing commodity prices in either direction over the past four

 weeks included:-

• Macroeconomic factors:-

• A mild U.S. recession in 2023 appears less likely following apparent stability in the bank sectors in both the U.S. and Europe.
• The Federal Reserve increased the benchmark interest rate at the 10^th successive monthly FOMC meeting on May 3^rd by 25 basis points despite data indicating a gradual decline in inflation. This action was taken against evidence that progressively higher rates are stressing banks, depressing the housing market and impacting retail sales. It is expected that the Fed. will pause at the mid-June FOMC Meeting.
• On March 30^th the Bureau of Economic Analysis issued a revised Real GDP of 2.6 percent for the fourth quarter of 2022. This value is based on increased consumer spending offset by lower investment in housing and a 0.6 percent increase in personal income. Initial projections for Q1 2023 GDP are for an increase of 1.3 percent as an annualized rate.
• The April 2023 CPI (up 4.9 percent) and the revised March WPI (down to 2.7 percent) were lower than forecast. Non-farm payrolls increased to 339,000 during May as documented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 2^nd with an unemployment rate rising to 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent in April. Jobless claims for the week ending May 29^th attained 229,000.
• The April Producer Price Index was up 2.3 percent year-over-year and 0.2 percent down from March. These values were lower than expected suggesting a cooling in the U.S. economy. This is confirmed by the anemic first quarter GNP increase of 1.1 percent, lower than the 2.0 percent expected. (Transitory downward pressure on markets)

• An 11^th-hour compromise resulted in passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act that raised the debt ceiling and was signed on June 4^th. (Indirectly upward pressure by removing a threat to the U.S economy).

• It is evident that both polarization in the closely divided chambers of Congress and intra-party conflict among both sides of the House will  delay adoption of appropriations bills. Passage the 2023 Farm Bill will be contentious over SNAP eligibility and other entitlements that represent 75 percent of the total.

• Dry weather is expected in the Midwest over the proximal two weeks. In contrast the remainder of the Nation will receive higher than average precipitation. Rains have relieved drought on the Southern plains. Wheat yield and acreage harvested will be sharply reduced in Kansas with an indirect effect on corn. (Variable pressure on prices with firmer indications in the June WASDE)

• Geopolitical tensions that impact wheat, corn, oilseeds and vegetable oil exports from Ukraine persist. Extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) for an additional 60 days was reluctantly accepted by the Russian Federation on May 18^th against undisclosed concessions on sanctions. Implementation of the BSGI is intermittently obstructed by actions by the Russian Federation with threats of non-extension, roiling markets. (Upward pressure on corn and wheat and an indirect effect on soybeans if Black Sea shipping is constrained)

• The May 12^th WASDE documented near record soybean and grain production for the 2023 season with increased world availability despite drought in the Argentine. The U.S. will export 12 percent of old crop corn resulting in an unchanged ending stock. Soybean exports will comprise 44 percent of the old crop with no change in ending stock.  (Lower domestic prices)

• There is an expectation that Brazil will attain a record soybean harvest of 153 million metric tons with export of 93 million metric tons. Corn harvests from Brazil for the 2022-2023 season will be higher than the previous season including the safrinha crop although recent dry weather reduced yields. Corn exports will attain 50 million metric tons (Lower prices in the future subject to favorable reports on crop progress and actual harvests)

• The Dollar Index (DXY) has ranged from 99 to 116 over 52 weeks but has recently shown an upward trend. The DXY was 104.0 on June 7^th, just below a five-week high. The dollar index often influences timing and volume of export orders. (Fluctuation in corn and soybean prices, high value depresses U.S. sales)

EXPORTS

The FAS Export Report released on June 8^th for the week ending June 1^st reflecting market year 2022-2023, confirmed that outstanding export orders for corn amounted to 6.56 million metric tons (257.9 million bushels) with 31.8 million metric tons (1,251 million bushels) actually shipped. Net orders for the past week covering the 2022-2023 market year attained 0.17 million metric tons (6.8 million bushels). Shipment of 1.2 million metric tons (49.0 million bushels) was recorded during the past working week. For the current market year cumulative shipments of corn to date are 33.3 percent lower than for the corresponding week a year ago. For market year 2023-2024 outstanding sales this week amounted to 3.0 million metric tons (116.4 million bushels), with cancellations this week for the 2023-2024-market year amounting to a net 0.11 million metric tons (4.2 million bushels).

(Conversion 39.36 bushels per metric ton. Quantities in metric tons rounded to 0.1 million )

The FAS Export Report for the week ending June 1^st reflecting market year 2022-2023, recorded outstanding export orders for soybeans amounting to 2.8 million metric tons (102.6 million bushels) with 48.4 million metric tons (1,777 million bushels) actually shipped. Net weekly soybean orders attained 0.21 million metric tons (7.6 million bushels) with 0.25 million metric tons (9.1 million bushels) shipped for the past week. For the current market year to date cumulative shipments of soybeans are 2.8 percent lower than for the corresponding week a year ago. Outstanding sales recorded for market year 2023-2024 amounted to 3.1 million metric tons (116.5 million bushels) with 0.3 million metric tons (9.0 million bushels) sold this past week.                                                                                                                                      

 (Conversion 36.74 bushels per metric ton)

For the week ending June 1^st 2023 net orders of soybean meal and cake amounted to 177,600 metric tons for the market year 2022-2023. During the past week 196,100 metric tons of meal and cake combined was shipped, representing 2.3 percent of the total 8,406,800 metric tons exported during the current marketing year. This quantity to date is 2.1 percent higher than the volume for the corresponding period of the previous market year. For the next market year outstanding sales have attained 606,900 metric tons with 90,000 metric tons ordered this past week.

The annual 2023 USDA Prospective Plantings Report, and the May 12^th 2023 WASDE confirmed:-

• Corn area planted for all purposes in 2023 will attain 92.0 million acres, up 4 percent or 3.42 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States. Yield was raised to 181.5 bushels per acre with a resulting 2,100 million bushel ending stock reducing USDA projective average season price to 480 cents per bushel.
• Soybean area planted for 2023 is estimated at 87.5 million acres, up slightly from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 15 of the 29 estimating States. Yield was raised to 52.0 bushels per acre with a resulting 335 million bushel ending stock reducing the USDA projected average season price to 1,210 cents per bushel.
• Crushers are expected to produce 54,475 million tons of soybean meal. Ending stocks will be up 35.0 percent to 400,000 tons depressing the USDA projected price from the previous season by 27 percent to $365 per ton.

The preference for corn is based on a favorable corn to soy benefit ratio.

Actual 2022 corn and soybean harvests and projected ending stocks were documented in the April 11^th WASDE #635, posted under the STATISTICS Tab.  Corn yield attained 173.3 bushels per acre with a crop of 13,730 million bushels. Ending stock will attain 1,342 million bushels. Soybean yield was 49.5 bushels per acre with a crop of 4,276 million bushels. Ending stocks were projected to be 210 million bushels. The April WASDE report was based on actual harvest data and values incorporated amended domestic use and export categories. This WASDE report presumably considered the predicted impact on world prices following disruption of the 2022 Ukraine crop following the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation.  Values will be updated when WASDE #637 is released on June 9^th incorporating crop progress, harvests in South America and world trade.

COMMODITY PRICES

The following quotations for the months of delivery as indicated were posted by the CME at close of trading on June 8^th 2023, compared with values at close of trading on June 1^st 2023  (in parentheses): -

Changes in the price of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over four trading days this past week were:-

Corn:                   July quotation up 20 cents per bushel.       (+3.4 percent)

Soybeans:          July quotation up 37 cents per bushel        (+2.8 percent)

Soybean Meal:  July quotation up $5 per ton                         (+1.2 percent)

The NASDAQ spot prices for feedstuffs per short ton at close of trading on June 7^th 2023 with prices for the previous week were:-

• Corn (ZC): $216 per ton was $212 (up 1.9 percent from the previous week).  52-week range $198 to $289
• Soybean Meal (ZM): $405 per ton was $393 (up 3.1 percent from the previous week). 52-week range $403 to $484

Values for other common ingredients per short ton:-

• Meat and Bone Meal, (According to the USDA National Animal By-product Feedstuffs Report on June 2^nd): $500 to $520 (Av.$510) per ton for porcine (ex MN);  $420 to $455 (Av. $440) per ton for ruminant (ex central states). Price varies according to plant and location  
• DDGS, (IA. and other states) according to the University of Missouri Extension Service By-Product Feed Price Listing) $240 to $270 per ton. Price varies according to plant and location and is expected to fluctuate with the price of corn
• Wheat Middlings: According to the USDA National Mill-Feeds and Miscellaneous Feedstuffs Report on June 7^th for MO. and other states: $130 to $170 (Av. $155) per ton (Current value reflect wheat price following the disruption of production and shipping from Ukraine and from U.S and world weather extremes)
• Bakery Meal, (MO & TX): $210 to $220 per ton
• Rice Bran, (AR & TX): $180 to $240 per ton. (unchanged from last week)

For each $1 per ton (2.8 cents/bushel) change in corn the cost of egg production would change by 0.11 cent per dozen

For each $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal the cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per dozen

The respective changes in the spot prices of corn and soybean meal on June 7^th compared with May 31^st would increase nest-run production cost for eggs by 0.8 cent per dozen.

*(Rounded to 0.1cent)

COMMENTARY ON AVAILABILITY AND PRICES OF FEED COMMODITIES

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) report estimated that fuel ethanol blending would average 990,000 barrels per day in 2023, up 1.2 percent from 2022. This past week 91.6 percent (88.8 percent last week) of the U.S. ethanol fermentation volume was operational, based on the January 2022 U.S. EIA capacity data. The outlook for increased production will depend on higher domestic demand, from summer driving in addition to increasing the quantity that is exported.

During March 2023  (the last month for which data is available) ethanol exports were up 27.4 percent from February to 133 million gallons (3.16 million barrels). Importing nations and regions and their proportions of total volume for the month included:-  42.7 percent to Canada; 17.1 percent to India; 15.6 percent to U.K. and the E.U.; 7.8 percent to Central and South America; 4.4 percent to Mexico; 3.9 percent to South Korea; 3.3 percent to the Middle East.

According to the U.S. EIA, for the week ending June 2^nd 2023 the industry produced on average 1,036,000 barrels of ethanol per day. This was 3.1 percent up from the week ending May 26^th 2023 and continued weekly production at above the one million gallon per day benchmark. On June 2^nd ethanol stock was up 2.8 percent from the previous week to 23.0 million barrels, an approximately 19-day reserve. This past week demonstrated higher demand for ethanol, given relative changes in the weekly production level and stock. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast ethanol production at 970,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2023 although this projected volume was exceeded. The short-term prospects for increased domestic consumption are unfavorable despite a 2023 summer waiver and bipartisan bills in Congress to permit year-round E-15 blend. Many older vehicles cannot use higher than an E-10 blend and there are obvious restraints on fuel stations to store and dispense high-ethanol blends without extensive capital investment in tanks and multi-blend pumps,

Current Energy Prices:-

• Ethanol quoted on the CBOT (EH) on June 7^th was priced at $2.14 per gallon,  2 cents (0.9 percent) lower than last week. The 52-week range is $2.14 to $2.19 per gallon.
• On June 7^th RBOB gasoline traded on NASDAQ (RB) at $2.64 per gallon, up 20 cents (8.2 percent) from the previous week. The 52-week range for RBOB gasoline is $2.08 to $4.28.
• The CME WTI crude price is ignoring concern over a possible World recession and predicted lower supply due to a previously announced OPEC production cut to commence in July and a voluntary one million barrel per day reduction by Saudi Arabia revealed on June 4^th. Price was up $0.50 (0.7 percent) to $2.31 per barrel on June 7^th compared to the previous week. Hydrocarbon sources of energy are now contributing less to inflation than during the first quarter of 2023.
• The AAA national average regular grade gasoline price was $3.55 per gallon on June 7^th, down three cents (0.8 percent) compared to last week. Gasoline is now $1.41 per gallon more expensive than ethanol but with a 63 percent higher BTU rating.
• The AAA national average diesel price was $3.92 per gallon on June 7^th, down three cents per gallon (0.8 percent) from the previous week but with prospects of a future rise in price due to a low national stock, although modulated by the WTI price.
• CME Henry Hub natural gas was priced at $2.33 per MM BTU on June 7^th up seven cents per MM BTU (1.0 percent) from the previous week

INGREDIENTS

DDGS is freely available with most plants among the 192 operational on January 1^st 2022 (the last available estimate) with a combined capacity of 1,134 million barrels per day functioning at 91.6 percent. The University of Missouri Extension Service By-Product Feed Price Listing priced DDGS at $240 to $270 per ton on June 7^th. Wide variation in price exists depending on supplier, quantity and location. It is axiomatic that the cost of DDGS will reflect changes in the price of corn with an appropriate lag period. Generally DDGS is currently incorporated at moderate inclusion levels in egg-production formulas based on price relative to the nutrient contribution of corn and other ingredients. This will change as corn and hence DDGS fluctuate in price

The CME soybean price for July 2023 delivery at close of trading on June 8^th was up  2.8 percent to 1,362 cents per bushel compared to the previous week at 1,325 cents per bushel for July delivery. The current price of soybeans is a reflection of availability for domestic crushing, consumption and export orders. Soybean meal was up 1.2 percent to $404 per ton for July 2023 delivery. Prices are obviously influenced by projections of harvest in the three major producing nations in South America coupled with domestic and international demand for soy oil and meal.

According to a release on May 15^th by the National Oilseed Processors Association, whose members process 95 percent of the U.S. crop, 169.8 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April 2023, the second highest crush for this month recorded but lower than the consensus of estimates averaging 171.8 million bushels. Crush volume was down 6.6 percent from the previous month of March 2023, at 181.8 million bushels.

On June 7^th the CME spot price for soybean oil was up 4.2 cents per lb. (9.0 percent) from the previous week to 50.7 cents per lb. Prices for vegetable oils have fluctuated over past weeks but with supplies in excess of demand especially for Asian crude palm oil at a 2-year low. Nevertheless there is a growing market acceptance that total oilseed supply will eventually be limited by a sharply diminished supply of sunflower oil from Ukraine, the World’s largest exporter of this commodity. Ukraine is subject to restraints on cultivation and limits on crushing and exports due to hostilities following the invasion by Russia. It is anticipated that 41 percent of U.S. soy oil was diverted from fuel to biodiesel during 2022.

On June 7^th the soybean meal spot price quoted on NASDAQ was $405 per ton, $12 per ton lower than the spot price last week and compared to a 52-week range of $378 to $496 per ton.

On June 7^th Meat and Bone meal was priced over a range of $440 to $525 per ton according to the USDA National Animal By-product Feedstuffs Report, Prices quoted were for central U.S. plants but with a wide range based on composition, source and location. Price fluctuation reflects changes in soybean meal and other oilseed meals.

On June 7^th the conversion of the CNY to the BRL was BRL 0.69 down CNY 0.02 from last week. The conversion of the CNY to the US$ was CNY 7.10, unchanged from the previous week.

For consecutive calendar years 2017 through 2019 the U.S. supplied 34.4 percent of soybean requirements for China amounting to 95.5 million metric tons. This was followed by a decline to 16.9 percent of 88.5 million metric tons in 2018 and 16.6 percent of 88.0 million metric tons in 2019. The USDA anticipated that soybean imports by China would attain 95.0 million metric tons during the 2020-2021 market year but in reality only 60.3 million tons was shipped through August 2021.

For the 2021-2022 market year net export sales of corn were down 0.13 million tons (5.1 million bushels) compared to the previous market year with cumulative exports of 59.764 million tons (2,352 million bushels) 

For the 2021-2022 market year net export sales of soybeans were down 0.11 million tons (4.2 million bushels) compared to the previous market year with cumulative exports of 57.118 million tons (2,099 million bushels) 

COMMENT

Subscribers are referred to the March 12^th 2023 WASDE #636, the USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report and the USDA Grains and Oilseeds Outlook posted under the STATISTICS Tab. A summary of the June WASDE #637 will be posted in the June 16^th edition

Following extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) there is only restricted operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) allowing Ukraine to ship commodities from functioning ports. The three major grains (corn, wheat and barley) harvested during the 2022/2023 season will amount to 49.0 million metric tons, 42 percent lower than for 2021/2022. Exports were projected to attain 38.1 million metric tons, 26.5 percent lower than the previous market year. The Economist estimates that 10 million metric tons of agricultural commodities from the 2022/2023 harvest of 53 million metric tons are still in storage. Deliberate obstruction of the BSGI will reduce grain and oilseed exports by 25 million metric tons for the 2024/2025 harvest unless naval intervention by NATO creates free passage or a negotiated peace treaty is concluded.

It is unknown whether the United Nations negotiators relaxed sanctions on exports of Russian agricultural commodities including fertilizer to achieve an extension of the BSGI. Confusion is demonstrated by the Russian Federation both negotiating for a relaxation of sanctions for a longer-term agreement but with the Foreign Affairs Ministry simultaneously calling for an abrupt termination of the BSGI.