USDA-FAS GAIN Report AR2023-0004 released on April 14th confirms the impact of drought on soybean production in Argentine. The latest estimate of harvest for the 2022-2023 season will be 23.9 million metric tons (878 million bushels), the lowest in 24 years. To maintain a crush of 29.5 million metric tons (1,083 million bushels), the production deficit will require importation of 11 million metric tons (404 million bushels) with a corresponding drop in exports to 18.8 million metric tons of soybean meal.
Subject to an improved 2023/2024 growing season influenced by the transition to an El Nino cycle, soybean production will attain 50 million metric tons (1,837 million bushels). Peanut production during the current season will be slightly lower than one million metric tons, down from an expected 1.3 million metric tons.
A shortage of soybean meal will affect many importing nations as Argentine is a major producer and supplier. The deficit will be accentuated by disruption in availability of sunflower meal from Ukraine based on the instability and questionable duration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative allowing exports of commodities from Ukraine Black Sea ports.