According to the January WASDE report, corn production was down 7.6 percent and soybeans by 2.7 percent for the 2022-2023 marketing year compared to the previous period as documented in the posting available under the STATISTICS tab.  Stocks-to-use ratios for the market year were predicted as 8.9 percent for corn compared to a two-year peak of 15.7 percent and 5.0 percent for soybeans compared to 22.9 percent. 

Unknown factors on the demand side include the availability of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine as a result of the unwarranted and destructive invasion by the Russian Federation.  The second unknown is the level of imports by China. This follows the lifting of lockdowns and the improvement in the economy that posted only a 3.0 percent percent rise in GDP in 2022 compared to double-digit increases in past years.  Should the economy of the People’s Republic of China improve with consumers willing to exercise greater spending power, despite COVID restraints, imports of grain and soybeans should improve.  It is, however, noted that China will, in all probability, give preference to Brazil that has experienced a bountiful crop.

On the beneficial front, water levels in the Mississippi river waterway have risen, reducing transport costs extending from loading to export terminals.  The anticipated decline of the prolonged LaNina will benefit the 2023 crop countering the lower projected carryover stocks from the 2022 harvest.