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Renewable BioDiesel Projections are Unrealistic

12/15/2022

According to Kenneth Zuckerberg of CoBank, renewable diesel production could increase by a factor of 6 to 6.5 billion gallons in 2030.  This would require cessation of exports and planting an additional 17.9 million acres of soybeans. The required acreage for biofuel would represent a 20 percent increase over the 2022 planted area of 87.5 million acres. This diversion of arable land to soybeans would obviously restrict the quantity of corn available for domestic use for animal feeds (34.5 percent), biofuels (34.4 percent), food (9.4 percent) and exports (13.5 percent) in 2022

 

The current high cost of diesel fuel that indirectly is attributable to restricted refinery capacity has created a current and possibly temporary demand for additional diesel with domestic reserves at a ten-year low.

 

Until electric-powered commercial transport vehicles become a reality, conversion to LPG fuel could be a bridging alternative for limited applications. High capital investment is required to fuel a fleet of light to medium delivery vehicles operating in urban locations.  There are questions regarding the reliability of the technology as installed in heavy semi trucks with one Midwest feed supplier that converted to LPG reverting to diesel after an unproductive experience and extensive outlay in a fueling station and unreliable engines. 


Projected volumes after 2027 are aspirational