USDA-FAS report UP2022-0086 released on December 12th documents the impact on grain production and exports following the unprovoked February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation.  Comparing the market year 2021-2022 with the corresponding 2022–2023-year, production of the three significant grains, barley, corn and wheat, were down 42 percent to 49.0 million metric tons, compared to 85.1 million metric tons.  Corn and wheat production were both impacted by 45 percent.

Destruction of elevators, occupation of eastern ports on the Sea of Azov and disruption of shipping from functioning ports on the Black Sea will reduce export volume of grains by 26.5 percent in market year 2022-2023.  The USDA estimates that exports will decline from 51.8 million metric tons to 38.1 million metric tons.  This projection presumes continuation of shipments under an agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations,.  There is a question as to the stability of the agreement that may be cancelled at any time according to the whim of President Putin.

It is noted that Russia is harvesting and illegally marketing grain from the eastern provinces occupied and annexed. Observers place a value approaching $1 billion on illegal sales to Syria, Lebanon and possibly nations in North Africa.