Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist for the National Retail Federation expects positive GDP growth during the fourth quarter at a rate of 1.3 percent, half the value recorded for the third quarter.  In contrast, the first and second quarters of 2022 posted declines of 1.6 percent and 6.0 percent respectively, suggesting the approach of a recession. Kleinhenz noted ongoing consumption despite his evaluation that “The economy cooling and the interest-sensitive sector is seeing a significant pull-back.”

The National Retail Federation predicts that 2022 retail sales during November and December will grow between 6 percent and 8 percent over the corresponding months in 2021.  Kleinhenz points to the apparent decline in inflation attaining 7.7 percent in October compared to 8.2 percent in September. This is coupled with a decline in average hourly earnings growth falling from 5.0 percent in September to 4.7 percent in October on a year-over-year basis.

Kleinhenz optimistically noted, “Even though GDP may slow, employment will still be growing and consumer spending should remain positive heading in 2023.”