On Saturday, October 29th, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that the Black Sea Grain Initiative would not be renewed. This action was widely anticipated based on previous statements by President Putin claiming that Russia had been coerced into the agreement. Cancellation bottled up a large number of vessels in harbors in Ukraine that were either loading or about to sail. The justification for the most recent action was a drone attack on Russian naval vessels off the coast of Crimea, apparently carried out by Ukraine.

Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, issued a statement deprecating the cancellation of the Initiative, stating, “In suspending this arrangement, Russia is, again, weaponizing food in the war it started, directly impacting low-and-middle income countries and global food prices and exacerbating humanitarian crises and food insecurity.”

According to press reports, President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey persuaded President Putin to return to the Black Sea Initiative with presumed guarantees concerning attacks on the Crimea. It is possible that Russia feared intervention by the superior naval forces of the E.U. and the U.S. that would have exposed the inability of his marine forces to sustain an embargo. Convoys could have been organized, following the model implemented for tankers transiting the Straits of Hormuz in 2016. Naval vessels of the U.S. and the E.U. prevented attempts by Iran to interdict transport of oil from the Gulf nations to Europe, the Americas and Asia.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, came into effect in July allowing Ukraine to export the 2021 Harvest. In 2022 Ukraine was expected to have been the World’s 12th largest producer of soybeans and the 9th largest wheat producer with a large proportion intended for export. According to the USDA-FAS, Ukraine has harvested 61 percent of corn and 80 percent of soybeans from the current growing season.