According to the YLE newsletter circulated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, a prominent epidemiologist, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 strain BQ.1.1 increased from one percent of COVID cases in the northeast to 11 percent during the second week of October.  In addition, wastewater assays reveal a trend towards an increasing proportion of this COVID subvariant.  As subvariant BA.5 declines in incidence rate from approximately 40,000 cases a day at the end of September, to 20,000 cases per day in late October, the BQ subvariant is anticipated to increase from 20,000 cases at the beginning of November to 100,000 cases per day during the month.

Trend in COVID Hospital Admissions by Age

The predictive model takes into account that only 15 million of the U.S. population received a booster during the fall.  Based on experience in New York, where BQ.1.1 is responsible for 25 percent of cases, hospitalizations following exposure to this sub-lineage are disproportionately higher compared to BA4.

Epidemiologists advise wide scale vaccination to avert what may be an incremental 100,000 fatalities coupled with pressure on available ICU beds.