The Government of Ukraine estimates that 50 million tons of grain could be harvested in 2022 compared with 86 million tons in 2021.  The deficit is a result of the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. Considerable acreage is occupied and agricultural infrastructure has been damaged.

Storage of the 2022 harvest will be a major problem.  Following the invasion, exports through the Black Sea terminated.  Exports are down more than 53 percent year-on-year to 3.6 million tons.  This can be compared to 48.5 million metric tons exported during the 2021-2022 season ending June 30th.  Despite the agreement to allow exports negotiated at the end of July, shipments in 2022/2023 have totaled 3.3 million metric tons, comprising principally corn, followed by smaller quantities of wheat and barley.  Exports in August of 1.9 million tons, following the agreement are 60 percent lower than the 4.6 million tons exported during the corresponding month in 2021. 

Even though loading of bulk grain carriers has resumed, storage capacity and handling equipment in ports has been degraded by deliberate shelling carried out by the forces of the Russian Federation. The intensification of hostilities in the east of Ukraine, will place pressure on Russia to defend the territory it captured during the second quarter of this year. Accordingly the agreement, which is subject to periodic renewal, is fragile at best and may be breached by Russia in an attempt to force capitulation by Ukraine.