On May 24th, a webinar on availability and prices of raw materials exemplified the uncertainty that exists with regard to 2022.  The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation has created considerable uncertainty on future prices and availability with worldwide repercussions.  The webinar highlighted the following trends:

• Russia will, in all probability, export more grain than in 2021.
• Ukraine will be unable to produce or export wheat and sunflower products at the high levels recorded in 2021 due to disruption following the invasion.  Wheat prices will remain high until shipments of Canadian and Southern Hemisphere commence during the 2022/2023 market year.
• Demand for wheat and soybeans by China have decreased as a result of the slowdown of the economy.
• Planting progress in the U.S. was markedly behind the 2021 season at the beginning if May but compensatory progress has been made in recent weeks, although there may be a negative impact on yield.  Greater clarity will be obtained following release of the June 2022 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.
• Ongoing drought in Brazil and neighboring nations will reduce supplies of grains and soybeans.
• Yields may be impacted by lower levels of application of fertilizer that has increased sharply in price for the Northern Hemisphere 2022 planting season.
• Corn supply from the U.S. will be limited by the four percent shift to planting soybeans, late sowing and the Renewable Fuel Standard diverting corn to ethanol.
• Shortages in North African and Middle East nations reliant on wheat from Ukraine may be reversed if ports in the southeast of the nation remain open.  This will require NATO action to lift the current blockade imposed by the Russian Federation.

It was the consensus of the participants representing international ingredient trading organizations and media that prices for feed ingredients will remain high through the third quarter of 2022.