Outbreaks of HPAI in backyard flocks are not of direct commercial significance but they do indicate the presence of virus in an area.  The question arises as to the duration of shedding of H5N1 from free-living birds.  The New England region of the nation was the first to be impacted by the H5N1 introduced by sequential Transatlantic migration into Newfoundland, Canada followed by a southward movement to Florida. 

In order to predict outbreaks of HPAI in commercial flocks in succeeding years it will be necessary to add to our knowledge of the epidemiology of avian influenza virus in free-living species including duration of shedding in various species, susceptibility and clinical effect of the virus among prevalent species, vehicles of infection, persistence of virus in lakes and ponds and possible mechanisms of transfer to commercial flocks whether confined or allowed free range.