Shoppers are facing higher shelf prices leading into Easter. Large size now average $3.15 per dozen with Extra-large proportionally higher. Prices are up approximately 70 percent from the pre-Easter week in 2021.
The depletion of 18.2 million laying hens during March and now more in mid-April has increased demand. The national stock level on April 11th was 7.4 percent lower than the previous week.
Faced with declining margins for shell eggs, retailers have reduced features to four percent of advertising volume compared to alternative proteins such as pork with 30 percent and seafood at 28 percent of promotions.
The Urner Barry Midwest Large wholesale benchmark price hovered at $3.00 on Friday April 8th almost double that of the corresponding day in 2021 with a movement higher this past week. The traditional pre-Easter rise in price for shell eggs is completely overshadowed by the effect of HPAI.
The question uppermost in the minds of both buyers and producers is the trend in coming weeks. This will depend on a number of factors with incidence rate of HPAI in laying complexes as the most important. There was a lull in new cases extending from the Osceola County, IA complex of 5.0 million hens on March 31st to the most recent case in Wakefield, NE. that affected a large in-line breaking unit, representing a replay of 2015.
It appeared apparent through mid-week that a high level of biosecurity would be adequate to protect egg complexes based on comparisons with the progress of outbreaks in 2015 serving as a reference. This said, if losses remain below 23 million hens or approximately seven percent of the producing flock, a plateau in prices is expected after Easter with a slow decline thereafter as equilibrium is established between available shell eggs and supply. It is apparent that the proportion of losses has been higher in the breaking segment of the industry drawing shell eggs into the liquid channel. A shortage of egg-liquids will not result in large-scale importation from the E.U. as in 2015. This is mainly due to disruption in supply from Ukraine as a result of the invasion by Russia. As a short-term contingency, USDA-APHIS has allowed importation of shell eggs from Mexico to be broken for liquid although the volume involved will probably not have any measurable effect on the price of shell eggs.