Mykola Solskyi, the newly appointed Minister of Agriculture for Ukraine, warned of the consequences of blockading Black Sea ports and disruption of infrastructure on world supplies of grain.  Shipments from Ukraine averaged 4.5 million tons per month prior to the invasion by the Russian Federation but now are reduced to “a few 100 thousand tons”.  As the war drags into the sixth week, the situation is deteriorating, and it is now estimated that up to 30 percent of the winter crops will not be harvested.

Removal of Ukraine wheat, corn and sunflower from international markets will result in inflation of commodity costs ranging from 10 to 20 percent depending on availability of supplies from other nations.  The situation in Ukraine is exacerbated by an anticipation of low yields from Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina due to drought.

In order to conserve food for the domestic population, President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a directive requiring special permission to export wheat and corn.  Previous to the invasion, Ukraine was responsible for 10 percent of world wheat exports representing 20 million tons, in addition to being a major supplier of barley and sunflower.

In the short term, importers of wheat in the Middle East and North Africa will be severely impacted in both availability and cost. In some nations, civil unrest may occur due to either shortage or a reduction in government subsidies for bread with Egypt the most vulnerable.

Since corn, wheat, sorghum, rye and other grains are calorie sources for both humans and monogastric livestock higher prices can be anticipated unless peace is restored.