The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) failed to release the Renewable Fuel Standard for 2021 that was due at the end of November 2020.  The current Administration missed the goal of a target established for July.  It is understood that EPA will remit a proposed lower biofuels mandate for 2021 and 2022 to the White House for review that reflects the current realities of fuel demand.  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gasoline consumption from January through June of the current year averaged 8.6 million barrels per day (361.2 million gallons) down 7.5 percent from the 9.3 million barrels (390.6 million gallons) for the corresponding first half of 2019, prior to the advent of COVID.

Cellulosic ethanol never materialized

The U.S. Energy Information Agency has recorded six consecutive weeks of ethanol production below one million barrels per day with an almost constant 20-day inventory confirming lower demand for vehicle fuel.  Congress established a renewable fuel standard including corn-based ethanol, advanced and cellulosic biofuels.  Virtually all ethanol-based biofuel is derived from corn with biodiesel incorporating oil from soybeans.  Advanced biofuels and cellulosic biofuels have not materialized due to technical and financial restraints.

A further complication is a decision on granting small refinery exemptions that would have been extended to refiners processing less than 75,000 barrels per day.  Fifty-nine applications seeking exemptions are under consideration for compliance years ranging from 2016 through 2021.  According to a SCOTUS ruling, small refiners can receive exemptions that were denied by EPA.  Three refineries with a total capacity of 170,000 barrels per day (7.14 million gallons per day) are under review.  At a 10 percent "dilution" rate to gasoline, the three refineries in Wyoming, Utah and Oklahoma respectively would represent a collective loss to ethanol refiners of 714,000 gallons of ethanol per day.