The Chief Economist for the National Retail Federation, Jack Kleinhenz noted that as the Nation moves into the second half of 2021 the economy is ‘heating up’.  Vigorous growth is expected through the rest of the year, spurred by government monetary stimulus.  Although the Federal Reserve index predicts a 2.8 percent inflation rate over the coming 12-months, a University of Michigan survey determined that consumers expect an inflation rate of close to 5.0 percent.  Economists generally accept that inflation will peak during the third quarter of 2021 as supply chain and labor issues moderate.

Kleinhenz clearly stated that, “vaccine is the key to further economic recovery, reopening and rebuilding.”  He maintains that continued economic progress will be dependent on higher rates of vaccination.  This is especially relevant given the fact that close to 90 percent of all new infections are attributed to the Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 responsible for COVID.

Labor shortages are apparent with almost 7 million workers less than were employed at the onset of COVID.  Higher wages, recruiting bonuses, fringe benefits including child care supplements will be necessary to restore the workforce given profound disruption in working conditions for both white and blue collar employees.

The National Retail Federation anticipates an increase in spending of 16.4 percent year-over-year for  the first six months of 2021 with retail sales rising over a range of 10.5 to 13.5 percent compared to 2020, impacted by COVID.