The January Phase-One Trade Agreement called for China to import agricultural products to the value of $36.5 billion in 2020, considerably above the $24 billion figure in 2017 before the beginning of a trade war.

The advent of COVID-19, a rapidly deteriorating diplomatic situation between the U.S. and China and November elections in the U.S. have combined to limit trade.  For the period January through May, China imported $6 billion in agricultural products, approximately nine percent higher than in 2019 but 31 percent below the 2017 base level. 

To satisfy the requirements of the Phase-One Trade Agreement, China will have to purchase $25 billion over the second half of 2020.  Traditionally China purchases soybeans and corn from the U.S. at the end of the market year, ending August 31st, and into the beginning of the subsequent market year.  In June and July, China imported $2.5 billion in U.S. soybeans, but prospects for compliance with the intended value of purchases now appear dim despite large orders for corn and soybeans during July.