Despite the surge in imports of agricultural commodities in recent weeks, China is falling behind forecast on projected purchases of energy, commodities and manufactured goods.  It was envisaged that China would purchase $25 billion in energy products during calendar 2020.  As of the end of May only eight percent of the anticipated quantity was shipped.  It is acknowledged that the purchase commitment was based on dollar value.  With the unprecedented decline in the value of liquefied natural gas and ethanol, volume would naturally decline although this factor does not completely explain the reduction.  In large part, China has reduced energy requirements and hence purchases of oil, LNG, propane and even coal have been trimmed to conform to national needs.

As of the end of May, China had only purchased 16 percent of the projected $33 billion in agricultural commodities although the pace of imports especially for corn and soybeans has increased with the seasonal transition of purchases from Latin America to the U.S.

China purchased $20 billion of manufactured goods through May compared to a goal of $84 billion for the year.  Since only 20 percent of the target was achieved in the first five months of 2020, the pace of imports must increase to offset lower trade especially during the first quarter that was impacted by COVID-19.  The action by China with regard to trade suggests that the Nation may be either incapable or unwilling to comply with their agreement.  This in part has contributed to a decision by the Administration not to proceed with Phase 2 of a comprehensive trade agreement.