Bourcard Nesin, beverage analyst at Rabobank recently reported on a model to project online grocery sales through the remainder of 2020. Immediately following adoption of COVID restrictions and home confinement, major grocery chains experienced two to four-fold increases in on-line sales. Many banners reported substantial sales during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.  Nesin predicts that on-line sales will eventually revert to the pre-COVID level following restoration of what is expected to be "new normality".

Nesin stated, "even if overall on-line sales revert to the baseline scenario retailers that took assertive action during the height of the pandemic will not only benefit from much larger peak growth then the industry at large, but they will be able to deliver the kind of user experience that will help them retain those customers over the long term".

It is apparent that the COVID crisis resulted in an unprecedented demand for on-line ordering and delivery of groceries that boosted the channel and should provide competitive advantages even with restoration of in-store purchasing.