In an appraisal of recent purchases by China authored by Jerry Gulke in the Ag Web Farm Journal the motive for a recent sharp rise in orders was evaluated.  Some industry observers believe that purchases including the 390,000 metric tons on Monday June 21st are seasonal and reflect the end of supplies from Brazil.  Port congestion arising from the first-quarter coronavirus outbreak allowed stocks to fall. 

Planners in China do not want to enter and  progress through the 2020/2021 market year with low inventory.  There is a pervading fear that in the event of COVID-19 affecting internal U.S. movement of soybeans and their shipment, that China could be subjected to restricted supply. 

Notwithstanding recent orders, it is unlikely that China will comply with their Phase-One commitment to import agricultural commodities to the value of $36.5 billion.  It is possible that they may request forbearance, rolling forward, the promise by one quarter, citing disruption in imports during February and March of this year.