The U.S. Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product [GDP] declined at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent during the first quarter.  This is higher than during the fourth quarter of 2008, which marked the beginning of the Great Recession. The decline is noteworthy in that only the last two weeks of the quarter were disrupted by COVID-19. 

Economists consider that the second quarter GDP will reflect increased unemployment with 30 million now out of work. It is forecast that GDP will fall to an annualized rate of negative 38 percent in the second quarter placing the economy in early 1930s Great Depression territory.

With the prospect of a vaccine in the distant future, and with relaxation of restrictions the economy should improve in the third quarter, but possibly at the expense of an increased incidence rate of COVID-19, especially in rural areas and in cities yet unaffected by the disease.  Essentially the second and third quarters will reflect a balance between business-as-usual and the health of the nation. Most economist expect a “U-shaped” recovery and not the “V” as projected by the Administration. The Nation should face the reality that due to failure of businesses both large and small and reduced exports, many jobs in a variety of sectors will never come back.