This special edition of EGG-NEWS provides commentary on recent publications, reports and events relating to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).  As of mid-April, outbreaks have ceased among large egg production and pullet rearing complexes.  Notwithstanding this hiatus, evident since the beginning of March, incident cases are reported among backyard flocks, turkey growing facilities and at live bird markets suggesting extension from reservoirs of infection.  Cessation of new cases in large egg production complexes is attributed to the end of seasonal migration of waterfowl that have now settled into their annual breeding cycle.  Sporadic cases are probably due to shedding of H5N1 virus by non-migratory domestic birds.  Given experience in recent years we can anticipate a resurgence of infection in the fall as the southward migration commences impacting farms along the Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways.  This period of low HPAI activity should be used to strengthen biosecurity and to initiate protective vaccination of rearing pullets in high-risk areas in order to develop an immune population that will be challenged during the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Noteworthy publications and events over the past two weeks relating to HPAI are reviewed for the benefit of subscribers:-

HPAI Vaccination Work Group Submits Proposal

A working group comprising Drs. John Clifford, Craig Rowles, Travis Schaal and David Swayne distributed a proposed vaccination plan dated April 1, 2025, to respond to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the U.S. egg industry.  The Working Group was convened by the United Egg Producers and the American Egg Board representing U.S. egg producers. The document includes factual information on the availability and efficacy of vaccines and incorporates sections on monitoring for effective immunization and surveillance to facilitate certification for export.

Essentially the document confirms what many in the industry have recognized as the futility of the USDA-APHIS response of attempting to ‘stamp out” the endemic infection given the unprecedented depopulation of over 130 million egg laying hens on more than 130 farms since the onset of the current H5N1 epornitic that commenced in 2022.

The summary correctly maintains that “a new approach to reduce layer and pullet flock susceptibility to HPAI virus should be considered to increase resistance to infection, reduce viral shedding and importantly reduce the risk of a potential mutation event that may lead to further HPAI infection in human.”  The document suggests a program under which flocks could be vaccinated with a priority for replacement pullets.  The report correctly stresses the need for high levels of biosecurity, echoing the recommendations of the World Organization of Animal Health. 

Vecor vaccination  in ovo  or S.Cut to chicks with booster

Oil-emulsion vaccine im during rearing

The report failed to stress the impact of flock depletion on egg prices and the cost to consumers that exceeded $15 billion in 2022 and considerably more in 2024 with an additional escalation in prices peaking at $8.50 per dozen at retail in late February 2025, reflecting the loss of approximately 30 million hens over an eight-week period.

The zoonotic potential of H5N1, deserved more than seven lines in a text extending over 13 pages.  Virologists and epidemiologists involved in monitoring aspects of the molecular biology of influenza have constantly stressed the risk of emergence of a zoonotic strain of H5N1 with possible human-to-human transmission.

One of the authors of the report is a distinguished researcher and has extensive experience in international regulation of avian diseases.  A member of the committee authoring the document is a prior Chief Veterinary Officer of the USDA responsible for the response to the 2015 HPAI epornitic.  Following retirement, he has served as an advisor to the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council that has a single-purpose commitment to maintaining the export volume of broiler leg quarters.  It does not appear from the document that his affiliation in any way affected his scientific objectivity. It would have been possible to have made a more definitive and stronger case for vaccination with a broader representation from among the industry.

The return of incident cases during the fall migration of waterfowl is inevitable. The current ongoing outbreaks may be attributed to resident avian and mammalian carriers. Recognition that the infection can be transmitted by the aerogenous route invalidates even strict structural and operational biosecurity and places large complexes with power ventilation at risk. The need for vaccination especially in high-risk regions along the Mississippi and Pacific flyways is self-evident.  The proposal to vaccinate pullets is obvious but will delay creation of an immune population due to the biological time restraints associated with rearing. 

The report notes, “Vaccination of caged in-lay hens is challenging and potentially unachievable in cage-free operations.” This appears to be a questionable assertion.  When the industry was confronted with severe coryza in 2023, egg producers effectively administered oil emulsion vaccines by the intramuscular route to hens in both cages and aviaries in the face of infection.

This commentator strongly supports the recommendation contained in the summary, “The industry believes that it time to enhance our overall strategy to control the virus through implementing vaccination in egg laying flocks.”  In contradistinction he final paragraph relating to “acceptability to the federal government, state animal health officials” is the major defect of the report inducing a wishy-washy, non-definitive approach ending with “We look forward to further discussion with USDA about the proposal.” 

Effectively if the broiler segment of the poultry industry is still opposed to vaccination of egg production flocks and possibly growing turkeys in high-risk regions, despite appropriate monitoring and surveillance, all we will have is more discussion and temporizing without action.  The so-called four-pronged program advocated by the newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture is effectively smoke-and-mirror, more of the same widow dressing.  It appears that USDA-APHIS either through disinclination to accept realities or acting under the duress of exporters will continue to discuss, research, evaluate, and consider vaccination while continuing to implement whack-a-mole flock depopulation at the expense of taxpayers, producers and consumers. The essence of the report is reminiscent of the sentiments attributed to St. Jerome who prayed for chastity-- but not right away.

Prominent Health Advocate Comments on the Need for Vaccination Against HPAI

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a physician, investor in medical companies and a director of pharmaceutical enterprises previously served as the 23^rd Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration in the first administration of President Trump.  He recently authored a commentary pointing to the need for vaccination of poultry flocks using currently available commercial off-the-shelf products.  In his commentary he justifiably castigated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, who advanced the inane suggestion that HPAI should be allowed to spread unchecked through flocks in the hope that a few survivors would express genes for resistance to avian influenza.

Dr. Gottlieb correctly maintains that the egg industry must use the current seasonal quiescent stage of the epornitic before resumption of migration in the fall to establish immunity among flocks at risk.  He expresses this sentiment as, “We have vaccines for bird flu made by American companies and used overseas but so far federal officials don’t seem poised to use them here.”  He points to the deployment of vaccines in France, China and Mexico among other nations and cast doubt on the various distortions of science advanced by opponents of vaccination to support ongoing exports of broiler leg quarters.

Applying logic and common sense, Dr. Gottlieb notes that, “The avian influenza strains now in circulation have persisted continuously among birds and mammals for nearly two years and there’s growing evidence that it could become a permanent feature of North America – part of a the new normal to which the poultry industry must inevitably adjust for both the physical and economic health of Americans.”

Influenza H5N1 is clearly endemic in the U.S. and in the poultry industries of many nations. The incidence rate can be suppressed to some extent by strict structural and operational biosecurity involving investment and management.  Notwithstanding the stringency of biosecurity, there is little that can be done to prevent aerogenous transmission especially into power-ventilated houses located on multi-aged egg production complexes.

Avian influenza is effectively The Newcastle Disease of the 2020s. During the 1970s Velogenic viscerotropic  Newcastle disease (VVND=END) in Europe, Asia and Africa was in every way as catastrophic as avian influenza but was effectively controlled principally by vaccination supported by biosecurity.

It is questioned why a clear thinking and well-connected physician should have a greater appreciation of the risks, consequences and potential control measures to reduce the economic and potential zoonotic impact of avian influenza compared to the administrators of USDA-APHIS. Is the firm recommendation for vaccination advanced by Dr. Gottlieb an expression of epidemiologic reality or is it that Dr. Gottlieb is an independent scientific voice unfettered by conflicts of interest? 

Introduction of the SAVE Our Poultry Act

U.S. Representatives Sarah McBride, (D-DE) and Mike Lawler, (R-NY) introduced the Supporting Avian Virus Eradication (SAVE) Our Poultry Act that is intended to elevate the standard of biosecurity and to encourage research into protection including immunization.

In announcing the proposed legislation, Rep. McBride stated, “The SAVE Our Poultry Act is about supporting our farmers and their efforts to protect their animals, their markets and their future.”  According to an April 10^th release by Rep. McBride, the intended legislation would:

• Authorize USDA research grants to study highly pathogenic avian influenza
• Analyze the impact of poultry vaccination on international trade and market access
• Fund enhanced biosecurity practices and disinfection methods for poultry producers

The press release justifiably notes the high prices for eggs as a result of depopulation of flocks and pointed to the support by the National Chicken Council (NCC) representing broiler producers, the United Egg Producers and regional poultry associations with members at risk of or having experienced losses as result of HPAI. Specifics of the Bill that would amend the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act of 1990 emphasizes HPAI as a “high priority research and extension area”.

Among other components the bill makes provision for grants to colleges and universities to “research the effectiveness of vaccines across poultry species, improve formulations of vaccines and improve the delivery mechanisms for vaccines.  This is in itself commendable but ignores the reality that both subunit vector vaccines are available off-the-shelf together with inactivated oil emulsion products that could be deployed immediately following approval and authorization for use by USDA-APHIS.  Ongoing research is obviously beneficial, but the infection is expected to return within months and research envisaged in the SAVE Our Poultry Act would do nothing to reduce losses in 2025 through 2026.

A provision of the bill goes to the core of the disinclination by USDA to allow vaccination.  The SAVE Our Poultry Act would involve “assessing the potential implications of vaccination on domestic and international poultry markets including trade and market access considerations.”  It is evident that the broiler segment of the U.S. poultry industry through its lobbying and the influential Broiler Caucus has effectively prevented the application of vaccination to the detriment of the turkey and egg production segments irrespective of sentiments expressed by the NCC. 

Congressional Response to the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services

The poultry industry and human epidemiologists should be alarmed by the misinformed, and incendiary statements by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services as reported in the New York Times on March 18^th, relating to “letting avian flu run through flocks so we can identify the birds and preserve those that are immune to it.”  This appalling approach to end the bird flu epidemic is unworthy of even cursory consideration.

Five members of the House of Representatives addressed a letter to the Secretary on April 1^st condemning his statement and demanding reports and copies of communications among the Department of Health and Human Services, the USDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health regarding mitigation of avian influenza.

In the first instance it is noted that avian influenza will ultimately kill in excess of 98 percent of an infected flock.  During the clinical phase, vast quantities of virus are generated resulting in the potential for inter-farm spread especially where complexes are located in close proximity.  Even if a small proportion of a flock were to survive an outbreak of avian influenza their value for breeding would be negligible given that the commercial generation of broiler, turkey and egg-production flocks are hybrids. The program of “stamping-out” has in all probability reduced farm-to-farm spread notwithstanding the depopulation of 170 million commercial poultry since the onset of the 2022 epornitic.

To add insult to injury, the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins apparently embraced the distorted logic expressed by Secretary Kennedy despite confusingly advancing a “four-pronged strategy” incorporating nothing new and funded by  a proposed $1 billion in an attempt to suppress HPAI.

The five members of the House, including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Healthcare and Financial Services and Rep. Gerald E. Connoly (D-VA), Ranking Member of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform requested a list of non-governmental experts consulted by HHS relating to any federal response to avian influenza.  The Representatives also requested “a full and complete list of individuals who recommended that the federal government would allow avian flu to run through the flock in an effort to build immunity” together with their credentials and past involvement with the federal government.  The letter to Secretary Kennedy raised the justifiable issue of a potential zoonotic infection and stressed the need to “combat, contain and eliminate avian influenza, requiring a concerted and coordinated effort across all relevant federal agencies.”

Secretary Kennedy is devoid of scientific credentials. He has surrounded himself with sophists and charlatans expressing unconventional policies to prevent human infections. He has embraced conspiracy theories on disease and related topics that have been debunked by both U.S. and international scientist and agencies. As a Secretary of the HHS he is entitled to his personal opinions but not a selective or distorted expression of facts

Zoonotic Implications of HPAI

The zoonotic aspect of HPAI was reviewed in a published interview prepared by Dr. Eric Rubin Editor-in-Chief and Dr. Lindsey Baden, Deputy Editor of the New England Journal of Medicine who discussed infectivity of HPAI with virologist Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka.  Of concern is the circulation of H5N1 genotype D.11 and B3.13 in avian species and dairy herds respectively.  Although the incidence rate of bovine influenza H5N1 is declining more than 1,000 herds have been diagnosed with possibly many more infected. Both structural deficiencies and a lack of effective biosecurity within the U.S. dairy industry have contributed to dissemination of the virus.  It does not help that the Administration has terminated personnel involved in response to COVID and have effectively disbanded the group of scientists including epidemiologists, virologists and logisticians concerned with preparedness for a future pandemic.  Signing a Presidential Executive Order has transitory political effect but does not necessarily prevent the inevitable emergence of an infection with epidemic or pandemic potential at some time in the future.

Rubin, E. et al outbreak update-H5N1 New England Journal of Medicine 2025 doi.org/10.1056/nejme 2502267

Aerogenous Transmission of H5N1 Confirmed

EGG-NEWS has consistently maintained that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can be transmitted by the aerogenous route either as a bioaerosol or entrained on excreta and dust to be moved by wind.  A comprehensive epidemiologic investigation involving field observations, meteorology and molecular studies confirmed the spread of an outbreak of H5N1 from a commercial duck farm to unrelated egg production farms over a distance of five miles.  The case report with appropriate documentation involved an outbreak in the Czech Republic.  The authors note that their findings “underscore the importance of considering windborne spread in future outbreak mitigation strategies.”  Anecdotal and experimental data confirm the possibility of airborne infection extending from waterfowl excreting virus.

The USDA-APHIS has long held that “biosecurity of an acceptable standard will provide protection against HPAI.”  This is a false presumption given the ability of the virus to be transmitted over relatively long distances by the aerogenous route.  As noted by the authors of the Czech paper, power-ventilated egg production housing is extremely vulnerable given the volume of air displaced by fans. Exhaust rates may range from 200,000 to 600,000 cfm per 100,000 hens depending on climatic conditions.  Among the many failures of USDA-APHIS to address appropriate preventive measures has been a neglect of field epidemiology.  The only conclusions that can be drawn from superficial telephone-administered surveys is that proximity to waterfowl preceding an outbreak was a significant risk factor.  This would indirectly correspond with the observations in this significant publication.

Nagy, A. et al bioRxiv doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.12.637829

Editorial Comment

The Economic Impact of HPAI

There is no purpose in tiptoeing around the failure to adopt vaccination against HPAI in high-risk areas.  The broiler industry may or may not lose a part of their market for leg quarters that represent over 97 percent of shipments of USDA-inspected broiler products valued at $4.5 billion in 2024.  Although this restraint is significant in terms of volume and monetary value, the ban on vaccination requires a broader perspective.  The USDA-APHIS has expended over $2 billion in indemnity payments and logistics from the Commodity Credit Corporation.  Individual egg producers have experienced disproportionately higher losses as a result of their inability to supply markets during the period required to repopulate their complexes.  Consumers have been forced to pay high prices for eggs, far exceeding the potential loss that may be experienced through export markets.  In 2022, the average price of eggs was conservatively $2 per dozen higher than it would have been in the absence of HPAI, costing consumers an incremental $15 billion on their grocery expenditures.  In 2024 the cost to consumers as a result of HPAI was infinitely higher given the differential between average shelf price and values that would otherwise have prevailed.  The loss of 30 million hens during the first two months of 2025 was reflected in an escalation in egg prices peaking at $8.58 per dozen at wholesale on February 28^th but declining thereafter to $3.27 per dozen by the end of March. Notwithstanding this decline, the escalation in egg prices attained 60.4 percent in March 2025 compared to twelve months previously.  The disproportionate escalation in the price of eggs should be compared to an increase of 0.5 percent for food-at-home during March.  Within this category, dairy items increased by 2.2 percent, poultry meat by 0.9 percent, cereal and bakery products by 1.1 percent. Fruit and vegetables declined by 0.7 percent. and the fish and seafood category was down by 1.5 percent.

In reviewing the export market for broiler leg quarters, it is noted that volumes are declining but unit prices are moving in the opposite direction although with a net decline in total annual value.  The question arises as to whether importing nations would continue to purchase leg quarters if preventive vaccination were to be permitted for egg-production flocks in high-risk areas. Vaccination would be subject to appropriate monitoring and surveillance in accordance with World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) or negotiated standards. It is envisaged that USDA-APHIS could certify that broiler flocks of origin contributing to exports were free of HPAI at the time of slaughter.  It is also important to note that many of the nations importing U.S. leg quarters do so on the basis of low cost with an average unit price of $1,424 prevailing over the first two months of 2025 covering 479,000 metric tons.  Many importing nations are endemic with respect to HPAI and in some cases deploy vaccines against the infection. This would facilitate exports in accordance with the rules of the WOAH. 

The USDA-APHIS has been stubbornly remiss in their failure to negotiate terms under which U.S. producers could justifiably export broiler leg quarters from non-infected flocks.  For more than three years the Agency has labored under the misplaced presumption that HPAI is exotic in the U.S. and that the disease could be eradicated following an anachronistic “stamping-out” program.  The fallacy in the APHIS playbook is the failure to accept that infection is disseminated by millions of wild bird reservoirs on a seasonal basis together with introduction by migratory marine birds cohabitating with waterfowl in the Canadian Maritime provinces and in Alaska with extension down into British Colombia.

For the edification of APHIS there is adequate anecdotal and scientific evidence of introduction of infection on to farms by the aerogenous route. This reality means that even the strictest biosecurity does not provide absolute protection against H5N1 and other highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses suggesting a phased shift in the approach to vaccination.

Reducing the Capacity of the U.S to Respond to Zoonotic HPAI

The ongoing mass dismissals in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will have an adverse effect on testing consumer dairy products although it is generally accepted that pasteurization inactivates bovine influenza H5N1 strain B3-13 virus.  Similar reductions in staffing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will compromise detection of possible zoonotic infection that appears to be increasing in complexity and significance.  Mass layoffs have affected 40 cooperating laboratories within the FDA Veterinary, Laboratory Investigation and Response Network and also the USDA National Animal Health Laboratory Network responsible for aspects of routine and diagnostic activities.  Critical reductions have occurred among the personnel of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network that coordinates activities between the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratory and the approximately 60 state and university laboratories throughout the U.S. This commentator gives little credence to a USDA spokesperson that averred that job reduction “will not compromise the critical work of the department including its ongoing response to avian influenza.”

Stop Press: 60-Minutes Segment on HPAI

The 60-Minutes airing on April 20^th focused on bovine influenza H5N1 with little coverage of HPAI in poultry other than the obvious impact on egg prices. The greatest deficiency was a lack of ‘assurance’ that avian influenza is not transmissible to consumers through eggs.  APHIS was disinclined either through governmental restraint or lack of photogenic administrators, from participation in the program.

The Bottom Line

It is hoped that well-intended Congressional action, comments by informed commentators and scientific publications will break the de facto veto exercised by the broiler sector over vaccination as a modality to suppress outbreaks of HPAI in turkey and egg-producing flocks. Further temporizing proposed in the form of additional “discussion” and “research” is disingenuous. Delay will be both costly and represent a risk of emergence of a potentially zoonotic strain. The Administration should sincerely work towards reducing the price of eggs over the long term, limit public sector expenditures on control and avoid even the smallest risk of a catastrophic pandemic. Those in authority in the  USDA and DHHS would be well advised to heed the advice of epidemiologists, avian health practitioners, the WOAH and informed observers regarding the efficacy and desirability of vaccination to establish immune populations with appropriate surveillance in high-risk areas.

This update of U.S egg-production costs and prices is provided for the information of producers and stakeholders. Statistical data was unavailable due to the Federal shutdown. Updates will hopefully be available for inclusion in the December edition. September values for production and October cost and  price updates provided by the EIC are included in this review

OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

• October 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 117 cents per dozen, down 58 cents per dozen or 33.1 percent from the September 2025 value of 175 cents per dozen. The corresponding October 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $0.80 and $2.87 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen covering 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, as determined by the economy, supply as influenced by re-emergence of HPAI, net imports and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry. Imports declined sharply during the past quarter although the U.S. ran a negative trade balance through July.
• October 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 134 cents per dozen, down 13 cents per dozen or 8.8 percent from the September 2025 value of 147 cents per dozen. The corresponding October 2023 and 2024 values were respectively 120 and 208 cents per dozen.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An important factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price in 2024 and through Q1 of 2025 due to the high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 36 million birds, (hens and pullets) in 35 complexes or farms through mid-May 2025. The Fall 2025 losses involved two complexes of 3.1 million hens in late September and 2.0 million in early October.
• October 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 73.8 cents per dozen, down 0.8 cents from September 2025 at 73.8 cents per dozen. The October average nest run production cost for other than caged and certified organic hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.1 cents per dozen down 0.8 cent per dozen from September. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• October 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 43.2 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 100.4 cents per dozen in September 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 271.0 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen in 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• October 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 40.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 53.1 cents per dozen in September 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 321.1 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.

Since data for October production and September exports was unavailable as of mid-November values for the most recent reported month of August are retained in the following paragraphs.

• The August 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be up by 6.6 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 285.9 million compared to approximately 326 million before the advent of the H5N1 epornitic of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt during the month together with projected maturation of 23 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens. On October 8^th USDA estimated the total U.S table-egg production flock at 304.5 million with 298.1 million actually in production.
• August 2025 pullet chick hatch of 28.7 million was down 0.4 million (-1.4 percent) from July 2025 but inconsistent with an increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.
• August September export data will be released after resumption of Federal activities. In July 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 27.1 percent from June 2025 to 376,600 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.6 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 72,000 cases were dominated by Canada (38 percent of volume) the “Rest of Americas” including the Caribbean (40 percent). With respect to 304,000 case equivalents of egg products, importers comprised Canada (32 percent of volume), “Rest of Americas and the EU (each 20 percent), Japan, (12 percent), Mexico, (8 percent) collectively representing 98 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competing suppliers, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.          
• According to the USDA Egg Market Overview released on September 8^th, all egg imports (shell, liquid and dry) in July attained 19.5 million dozen shell equivalents compared to exports of all categories of 11.2 million dozen shell equivalents.
• For 2025 through July the negative trade balance in all shell and derived egg products attained 15.5 million dozen shell equivalents.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR SEPTEMBER 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA October 2025 costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on November 7^th 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous October 13^th 2025 release reflecting September 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA and EIC values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA data unavailable  1. From USDA Weekly Shell-egg Demand Indicator

*Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 285 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA)   81.5 September 2025.          % October 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook September 18^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation and net importation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER 2025:

1. USDA Shell-egg Demand Indicator. November 12^th.

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   AUGUST 2025, 7.03     SEPTEMBER 2025,           

Export and import data for August was not released due to Federal shutdown.

EXPORTS JULY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.8 percent of National production in JULY 2025 (0.4% shell, 1.4% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

               ( From 2^nd set insert Fig. 1 conventional cost)

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting OCTOBER 2025:-

                                                        117.0 cents per dozen¹- 73.8 cents per dozen = 43.2 cents per dozen         (September 2025 comparison:         175.0 cents per dozen – 74.6 cents per dozen  = 100.4 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

  (insert Fig 2 Farm egg value, Fig 3 Consumer retail, Fig 4 Estimated quarterly)

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

 ( From 3^rd set Insert Fig. 1 Cage free cost)

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for OCTOBER 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     134.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.1 cents per dozen =  40.9 cents per dozen

September 2025:-    147.0 cents per dozen -  93.9 cents per dozen =  53.1 cents per dozen  

 1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Negligible change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $1.20 to $2.60 per dozen
2. Estimate based on prevailing costs
3. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices

(Insert Fig 12  Quarterly CF and organic)

Cage-Free HPAI losses 2.0 million during October on WA complex

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

OVERVIEW

The USDA was unable to release the October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due to the Federal shutdown. The Agency is to be commended on producing the current edition within days of resuming activities. WASDE #665 provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans from the September 12^th WASDE #664, reflecting the 2025 crop. Determination of crop size and ending stocks is derived from actual harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The November WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop was harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop was harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The November WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was estimated at 186.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 percent from 186.7 bushels per acre predicted in September. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The estimated value for soybean yield was 53.0 bushels per acre down 0.5 percent from the September value of 53.6 bushels per acre. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The November WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was increased by 2.1 percent from September to 2,154 million bushels. The November USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 3.4 percent from September to 290 million bushels consistent with lower supply and exports.

The November WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 400 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was increased to 1,050 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was raised $20 per ton from September to $300 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest higher feed costs for livestock and poultry producers especially if promised exports materialize. Row crop farmers including corn growers will benefit from increased prices. In some areas corn will however be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and per bushel prices. It is inevitable that extensive support will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the November 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 and current market year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the November WASDE, influenced by actual harvest data projections of domestic use and trade figures. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,752 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from September at 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in fall and winter months. Projected corn exports were raised 3.4 percent to 3,075 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,154 million bushels or 11.8 percent of projected availability.

he forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the November WASDE report was 400 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th after the noon November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 448 cents per bushel, 12.0 percent above the USDA projection and 5.0 percent above the September 12^th CME price.

SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 400 cents per bushel. (up 10 cents per bushel from the September WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were updated from the September WASDE, as influenced by harvest data and predicted exports. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 yield of 53.0 bushels per acre and with reduced area of 81.1 million acres planted compared to 2024. The November WASDE determined the soybean crop to be 4,590 million bushels. Crush volume was retained from September at 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced 3.0 percent to 1,635 million bushels based on the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, down 3.3 percent from the September WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The November USDA WASDE projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was raised 50 cents per bushel from September to 1,050 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th following the noon, November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,051 cents per bushel, 9.6 percent above the November USDA projection and 10.1 percent above the September 14^th CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,050 cents per bushel (Up 50 cents per bushel from September)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from September. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, consistent with the static soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41.7 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 up $20 per ton from the September WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At close of trading on 18^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $328 per ton, up 9.3 percent compared to the November WASDE projection of $300 per ton and up 13.8 percent from the September CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $300 per ton up $20 per ton from September 2025)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine that are partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom. Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.

Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the United States, Ukraine, and India. Sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower production for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey; partly offsetting is higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.3 million tons on higher production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK.

The global 2025/26 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons due to updates to 2024/25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered for the United States, the EU, and Argentina but higher for Brazil and China. EU ending stocks are lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024/25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024/25 balance sheet includes higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024/25 crush, exports, and ending stocks are raised. China’s 2024/25 ending stocks are increased due to higher imports that are partly offset by higher crush. Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is reduced 1.7 million tons to 365.0 million. Crush is reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush is reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports. Partly offsetting is a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year. Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased 0.2 million tons to 188.0 million. Exports are raised0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the United States, the EU, Ukraine, and India partly offset by higher stocks for China”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)