In an incisive article authored by Dr. Michael S. Sinha and colleagues, published in the New England Journal of Medicine*, he and his co-authors raised the question of whether the U.S. has learned the lessons of COVID and is capable of responding to the emergence of a novel epidemic. The most immediate risk involves additional possible mutation of the H5N1 avian influenza virus that has become adapted to mammalian hosts and has infected a limited number of humans in direct contact with infected flocks and dairy herds. Despite emergence as a zoonotic infection in Hong Kong in 1997, the H5N1 virus has not become a pathogen of significance but is most certainly on the radar of the World Health Organization and public health authorities in many nations, including the U.S.

Dr. Sinha and colleagues question whether the U.S. is in a more favorable position to respond to an epidemic than it was prior to the introduction of COVID. The U.S. was unprepared in 2020 despite recommendations by the Institute of Medicine and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine over 25 years ago.  The federal and state agencies responsible for public health did not responded appropriately and efficiently as evidenced by events during early 2020.  The early months of the COVID outbreak were characterized by institutional denial, a search for ‘quick fixes’, a lack of personal protective equipment and imperfect coordination among federal agencies.  These inadequacies should have been corrected in intervening years but it is evident that little has changed. In some respects, the legal environment is less conducive to a coordinated and scientifically appropriate response.

During the early weeks of acceptance that the H5N1 B3.13 mammalian-adapted strain was transmissible to humans, operators of dairy herds were disinclined to cooperate with either state or federal agencies to initiate appropriate surveillance.  In the state of Texas, the Commissioner of Agriculture was on record as characterizing the efforts by the Centers for Disease Control to determine the extent of exposure of workers as “overreach”.

Dr. Sinha correctly characterizes the response to H5N1 as uncoordinated with ill-defined areas of jurisdiction among the Department of Health and Human Services subsidiary agencies comprising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health and the Departments of Defense, Agriculture and Homeland Security. In addition individual state governors created self-serving policies with their departments of health and of agriculture involved at the case and plant levels. Initially the White House designated the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services as the coordinator but this rapidly degenerated into a free-for-all with no indication of “who was in charge”. 

With the emergence of bovine influenza-H5N1 cooperation between state departments of agriculture and their public health counterparts expedited programs of surveillance. This involved both herds and workers and state agencies that undertook to educate owners of farms and their workers on protection.  Michigan and Colorado were preeminent in actively addressing the problem with Colorado introducing a mandatory testing program involving milk samples from all herds to detect the presence of virus and to impose quarantine measures.

In the event, it appears that H5N1 does not represent an immediate concern for public health.  Notwithstanding this fortunate circumstance, the threat of an emerging epidemic reveals obvious restraints to addressing what might occur in the future.  An outbreak involving a human-adapted pathogen that is also contagious has the potential to spread rapidly and extensively.  If a severe form of human influenza emerges it would probably affect children disproportionately. State and local authorities applying experience from COVID would be disinclined to close schools or to mandate masking, supported by state regulations and court decisions.  The initial response of state officials in traditionally conservative regions would be to place personal freedoms above sound principles of disease prevention especially in the early stage of an epidemic when control measures would have the potential for the most favorable outcome. 

A rising wave of science-skepticism and an unjustified lack of confidence in public health agencies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would impair the development, coordination and implementation of containment measures following the emergence of an infection with epidemic potential.

Proposed changes affecting the tenure of federal employees together with traditional pressure to conform to institutional norms is likely to inhibit open discussion of alternative modalities and would stifle the development of appropriate policy. Attempts to impose censorship on scientists and public health specialists as occurred during the COVID period will become more intense and absolute in the event of a subsequent epidemic.  The recent overturn of the Chevron Doctrine eliminated deference to scientists and medical professionals and would impede their efforts to introduce emergency measures intended to reduce the incidence rate of an infection. Directives based on scientific principles would be subject to interdiction by courts and result in prolonged litigation as rulings are appealed. 

Expenditure on vaccine development as evidenced by the “warp speed” production of mRNA vaccines that effectively provided protection from COVID among those receiving vaccines will probably be politically unpopular.  Even if mRNA technology can be applied to developing a vaccine against a new virus, prevailing vaccine hesitancy supported by misinformation on social media would limit administration allowing an infection to spread among the susceptible proportion of the population.

It is hoped that the incoming administration, irrespective of political persuasion, will recognize the inevitability of a future epidemic and will respond to the obvious deficiencies that occurred during the early COVID period. Those responsible for our Government should take heed from the emergence of H5N1 among dairy herds albeit with only a few workers affected who were involved in depletion of infected egg-production flocks. Events since March suggest acceptance of the One Health principle with regard to the emergence of a zoonotic infection. Bovine influenza H5N1 was a warning—the next pathogen to emerge or a mutation of an existing benign human or animal virus currently circulating may not be as forgiving going forward.

There will be no simple and inexpensive solution to contain a future epidemic.  The economic implications of an outbreak in a susceptible population will inevitably lead to disruption in food and industrial production, will curtail everyday activities and represent the potential for extensive mortality. The consequences of a contagious infection of zoonotic origin can be ameliorated by preemptive planning and the application of proven epidemiologic practices. This will involve embracing science and selecting hard choices that may, in the short term, be politically unpopular. The U.S. and the World could face a 1918 “Spanish flu” situation at some time in the future.  We are woefully unprepared with respect to political and public acceptance of control measures. We are faced with a hostile legal environment to implement meaningful protection coupled with a fractured system of jurisdiction over public health.  We need to use whatever time is available before the next outbreak to develop action plans that are cohesive and epidemiologically valid.

*Sinha, M.S. et al. (2024) Déjà vu all over Again-Refusing to learn the lessons. New England J. Medicine 391:481-483.                         DOI 10.1056/NEJMp2406427.

USDA Weekly Egg Price and Inventory Report, September 11^th 2024.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were down 6.9 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 11.3 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on September 6^th at $2.12 per dozen was 23.5 percent down from last week. This value was approximately $1.04 per dozen above the 3-year average of $1.40 per dozen and up $1.13 from the corresponding week in 2023 at $0.99 per dozen. This past week shell egg inventory was up 4.6 percent, following a rise of 4.3 percent during the previous week. Small fluctuation in inventory with low to moderate incremental weekly decreases in price during late summer suggests lower margins for producers through the current quarter attributed to replacement of depleted flocks. Relatively higher prices compared to 2023 are attributed to losses due to HPAI depletion reducing the national flock by 20 million hens despite reduced seasonal demand expected to increase in October.
• Although there are weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Close to 13 million hens were lost during the 4^th Quarter of 2023 that have not yet been completely replaced. During April 2024 almost 8.4 million hens were depopulated with an additional 5.7 million during May and 3.0 million in July.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. There is a presumption that buyers held back on orders in the face of high prices to “bend” the trajectory of the benchmark price to their advantage before the Labor Day weekend. This is evidenced by the short-term increase in inventory despite reduced supply albeit with softening demand. The cessation of incident cases of HPAI has probably provided buyers with the confidence to hold orders and run down stock. Inventory levels will depend on constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline through mid-September. Discounters are holding prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are still highly competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, but highlighted as a factor in food price inflation.
• Total industry inventory was up by 4.9 percent overall this past week at 1.65 million cases with a concurrent 6.2 percent increase in breaking stock, following an 11.8 percent rise during the preceding week associated wit reduced processing.
• It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important over the short term in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, especially into and after a holiday weekend.
• The number and extent of possible HPAI outbreaks during coming months cannot be projected but the industry has moved into a quiescent period. Close to 200 confirmed cases of bovine influenza H5N1 in dairy herds in fourteen states is a cause for concern. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic free-living birds together with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the current spring and future fall waves of HPAI. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances.
• The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On September 11^th the stated total flock of 306.8 million, was up by 0.5 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets scheduled to attain production. Given the latest figures for depopulation it is estimated that the total flock is at least 20 million hens lower than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was down a substantial 37.4 percent to $1.73 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were down 19.4 percent to $2.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be shorter with a wide swing in price in either direction.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on September 9^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was down 6.9 percent from last week to $4.07 per dozen. Large size was down 7.7 percent to $4.05 per dozen. Mediums were up 11.3 percent to $3.05 per dozen delivered to DCs. It is emphasized that these prices are for the previous week. 

As more replacement pullets advance in production, the stock of Medium size declined by 2.5 percent but the inventory of Small size fell by 6.2 percent over the past week suggesting pullet flocks are maturing with implications for prices during mid-to-late September.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 73.3 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for August 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.

Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The September 6^th edition of the USDA Egg Markets Overview confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 2.1 percent to $4.44 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $4.35 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $4.51 per dozen.

REVIEW OF AUGUST 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

Commencing in January 2024 the EIC justifiably separated the production costs and unit revenue values for eggs derived from caged and cage-free flocks. Accordingly, EGG-NEWS will continue to summarize data but will consolidate production and export statistics for the U.S. egg industry as a total and compare financial data for the two shell-egg categories.

AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS

• August 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 333 cents per dozen, up 129 cents per dozen or 63.2 percent from the July 2024 value of 204 cents per dozen. For comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen with a range of 323 cents per dozen in January down to a low of 57 cents in May. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza will not be a consideration until the fall migration of waterfowl resumes. Close to 13 million hens and 2.5 million pullets were depopulated during the fourth quarter of 2023 among five states with heavy losses in California. Approximately 17 million hens and 1.5 million pullets have been depleted year to date.
• August 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was down 2.3 cents per dozen to 73.3 cents per dozen compared to the USDA revised July 2024 value of 75.6 cents per dozen, mainly attributable to a 5.6 percent lower average feed cost per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run cost to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• August 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 259.7 cents per dozen compared to a revised positive margin of 128.4 cents per dozen in July 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022. This differential was mainly due to higher prices following HPAI-depletion of flocks. It is emphasized that the U.S. benchmark price reflects nest-run conventional eggs.

• The July 2024 national flock in production (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 1.2 million hens (rounded) to 288.7 compared to the revised June 2024 value of 289.9 million. This figure may not reflect flocks depleted in July. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in July together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• July 2024 pullet chick hatch of 28.6 million was up 0.7 percent or 0.2 million chicks from June 2024.
• July 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined was down 26.2 percent from June 2024 to 384,600 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.1 million hens. The substantial decrease was due to lower imports of products by Japan, the EU, Mexico and South Korea.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR AUGUST 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA August 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on September 6^th 2024 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous August 9^th 2024 release reflecting July 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA value

Export of Shell Eggs and Products, January-July 2024.

The volume of exports of shell eggs is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. This is demonstrated by the 182 percent drop in volume of shell egg exports from 2012 (198 million dozen) to 2022 (70 million dozen). Due to depletion of flocks in 2023, export prices increased 113 percent from $1.02 per dozen to $2.16 per dozen reflecting domestic prices. Depressed exports persisted in 2023 with 90 million dozen shell eggs exported at an average price of $1.80 per dozen as losses from HPAI rose in the last quarter with a consequential rise in domestic price. This situation persisted through the first half of 2024 but with prospects for improved volume based on decreasing prices.

It is probable that lost markets other than in the USMCA and Caribbean nations will be reclaimed over the intermediate term. Sporadic and short-term exports may be made to various nations based on supply disruption caused by HPAI or other factors.

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2023:-

                           U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING

                                              JANUARY-JULY 2024 COMPARED WITH 2023

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during the first seven months of 2024 declined by 5.8 percent in volume and 11.3 percent in total value compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value increased by 0.5 percent to $2.07 per dozen compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during July 2024 declined by 6.5 percent in volume but were higher by 87.8 percent in total value compared to the corresponding month in 2023. Unit value increased by 101.7 percent to $2.40 per dozen compared to July 2023.

Canada was the leading importer of shell eggs during the first seven months of 2024, with 32.4 million dozen representing 71.1 percent of volume and 68.7 percent of the $94.5 million total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs. Unit price over January-July 2024 was $2.00 per dozen compared to $2.50 per dozen for all consignments in January-July 2023. Imports by Canada are driven by consumer demand balanced against availability through the controlled supply situation. This inhibits flexibility, necessitating imports from the U.S. to supply shortfalls especially when additional losses occur due to HPAI or under conditions of high demand. This model assures the approximately 1,000 independent producers a stable income but is supported by higher prices to consumers. During July 2024 Canada imported 4.1 million dozen up 86.4 percent over the corresponding month in 2023. Value was up 259 percent to $9.7 million. Unit value was 91.9 percent higher to $2.36 per dozen.

The Caribbean Region (Bahamas, Netherlands Antilles, Cayman Islands, and others) was a distant second in shell egg imports from the U.S. valued at $17.3 million during January-July 2024, with 7.6 million dozen representing 16.7 percent of volume and 18.2 percent of the total value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs. Unit price over January-July 2024 was $2.28 per dozen

Mexico was the third-ranked importer of shell eggs in January-July 2024 with a volume of 1.5 million dozen representing 3.3 percent of export volume and 2.8 percent of value. Unit value of $1.69 per dozen is compared to an average value of $2.07 per dozen for all exports. During July Mexico did not import shell eggs from the U.S. that are normally used for breaking.

The average 12-month trailing USDA benchmark price for nest-run large shell eggs was $1.70* per dozen weighted by high prices caused by shortages during the first quarter of 2023 from depletion of flocks infected with HPAI.

*USDA 12-month USDA benchmark nest-run unit prices per dozen: August, $0.90; September, $1.00; October, $0.89; November, $1.65; December, $1.81; January 2024, $1.72; February, $2.51; March, $1.87; April, $1.35; May $1.35; June $2.07 and July $3.33.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during the first seven months of 2024 decreased 15.9 percent to 16,162 metric tons compared to January-June 2023. Total value of $71.9 million was lower by 11.9 percent compared to January-July 2023. Unit value increased by 4.8 percent to $4,448 per ton compared to January-July 2023. During 2023 the U.S. exported 29,814 metric tons of egg products valued at $134.3 million with a unit price of $4,505 per metric ton. Fluctuation in unit price reflects the composition of exports and the relationship between World supply and demand. Ukraine is now restrained in production but India continues as a significant exporter.

Japan was the leading importer by volume of U.S. egg products during January-July 2024 receiving 4,657 metric tons from the U.S. valued at $21.2 million representing 28.8 percent of volume and 29.4 percent of value with a unit price of $4,552 per metric ton. Volume for January-July 2024 was down by 33.3 percent and value was lower by 37.1 percent compared to the corresponding months in 2023. During July 2024 Japan imported 510 metric tons, down 37.3 percent over the corresponding month in 2023. Value was down 47.8 percent to $2.4 million but unit value was 16.8 percent higher to $4,705 per metric ton. During 2023 Japan imported 10,352 metric tons of egg products from the U.S., valued at $49.9 million. With the conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement, the U.S. should no longer be at a competitive disadvantage with respect to the E.U.

Mexico was the 2^nd ranked importer from the U.S. during January-July 2024 based on a volume of 3,393 metric tons with a value of $12.8 million, representing 21.0 percent of volume and 17.8 percent of the total value of U.S. exports of egg products. Exports to Mexico were up by 9.3 percent in volume but 17.4 percent lower in value compared to January-July 2023. The unit value of $3,772 per metric ton can be compared with the average unit value for U.S. exports of all egg products at $4,448 per metric ton. During July Mexico imported 362 metric tons valued at $1.4 million. Volume was 27.2 percent lower and value was 48.2 percent below July2023 with a unit value of $4,230 per metric ton.

Canada was the 3^rd-ranked importer in January-July 2024 based on a volume of 2,346 metric tons with a value of $8.4 million. Canada represented 14.5 percent of volume and 11.7 percent of value with a unit price of $3,580 per metric ton. During July Canada was 3^rd- ranked as an importer with 302 metric tons representing 18.2 percent of exports of egg products up 43.1 percent from July 2023. Value was $0.9 million or 12.3 percent of the monthly total, up 125 percent from July 2023 with a unit revenue of $2,980 per metric ton. Volumes shipped reflect restoration of the institutional and food service sectors and the relative availability of domestic product in Canada.

The E.U.-27 advanced to the 4^th-ranked importer of egg products over the first seven months of 2024 with 1,384 metric tons. Value was $12.0 million with a high unit price of $8,670 per metric ton. During July the E.U. imported 109 metric tons of egg products valued at  $1.0 million with a unit price of $9,174 per metric ton.

South Korea was ranked 5^th among importers of egg products during January-July 2024 with a volume of 1,291 metric tons. Export value was $5.2 million with a unit value of $4,028 per metric ton. Comparing these values with the corresponding months in 2023, volume was 108.9 percent higher and value was up by 67.7 percent. Most flocks in South Korea have been restored to production after depopulation following 2022-3 outbreaks of HPAI. Import volume may have been influenced by recent limited but rising flock depletion. South Korea imported 91 metric tons during July 2024. During 2023 South Korea imported 1,141 metric tons valued at $5.3 million. Depending on severity, the return of HPAI may result in a disparity between local availability and demand requiring imports in 2024 as in 2022.

Australia has emerged as an importer of egg products with 725 metric tons shipped during the first seven months of 2024 valued at $2.3 million with a unit price of $3,172 per metric ton. There were no imports in April, but 151 metric tons were shipped during both May and June but nothing in July. Depending on the HPAI situation that has required depopulation of 7 percent of the Nation’s hens, additional orders for shell eggs and products may be forthcoming.

COMMENTS

Exports to Canada and Mexico combined in 2022 amounted to $126.5 million in value equivalent to 47.5 percent of the total value of shell eggs and products shipped. During 2023 exports valued at $150.7 million represented 50.8 percent of shell egg and egg products amounting to $296.5 million. Canada represented 59.0 percent of the $162.2 million for shell eggs and 10.3 percent of egg products valued at $121.2 million, consigned during 2023, emphasizing dependence on this USMCA partner. During the first seven months of 2024 the USMCA imported shell eggs and products valued at $88.7 million. This represented 53.4 percent of all U.S. egg and product exports valued at $166.4 million.

Aspirational volumes of exports in excess of five percent of domestic production are unrealistic. The E.U., Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will indent according to their needs for undifferentiated shell eggs and products based on landed price in a competitive World market. Purchase decisions for commodities are determined by FOB price, freight, duty and broker margins. Shell eggs and the various categories of egg products are essentially commodities and generally do not respond to promotion. The recent appointment of a manager responsible for promoting exports and trade-related missions (‘junkets’) are inconsistent with prudent use of check-off funds. This opinion is based on an understanding of the factors motivating imports comprising need and price. The reality is that U.S. exports are heavily concentrated among our two USMCA partners in addition to the Caribbean region based on proximity and price.

Exports will be dependent on the willingness of importers to accept the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) principle of regionalization (zoning) in the event of outbreaks of exotic Newcastle disease or isolation of either H5 or H7 avian influenza (AI), in commercial flocks, irrespective of pathogenicity. Most importing nations are now applying regionalization and permitting imports on a zonal, county or state-exclusion basis following H5 or H7 AI infection. Canada and the U.S. operate according to a 2018 bilateral agreement to maintain trade in the event of outbreaks of catastrophic exotic diseases including HPAI and END.

Generally pasteurized egg products should not be subject to any embargo imposed following reports of AI or Newcastle disease in a region.

WEEKLY ECONOMY, COMMODITY & ENERGY REPORT: September 12^th 2024.

OVERVIEW

The prices for corn and soybeans were moderately down from the previous week partly reversing the sharp rise last week. Corn and soybean prices were influenced by the August 2024 WASDE Report, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and by farmers selling to avoid further declines and to make room for the approaching 2024 harvest beginning in strength from mid- September. More moderate weather conditions suggested high corn and soybean yields and proportionally lower prices as confirmed in the August WASDE. There was some technical selling arising from geopolitical concerns and in response to revised projections for harvests in Brazil and Argentine. Contributory factors included ongoing disruption in shipping in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, carryover from the 2023 U.S. crop, export orders and the predicted ending stocks of corn and soybeans from the 2024 crop. The August WASDE Report contained updated values from the extensively revised June/July Reports. A third of the 2024 corn crop is now mature with some harvesting underway. Concurrently almost all (95 percent) of the soybean crop is setting pods and a quarter of the crop is dropping leaves consistent with the five-year average but apparently with superior crop condition as compared to 2023. The transition from a neutral phase to a La Nina event is expected during the fourth quarter but will not affect the 2024 harvest. The September WASDE and USDA Survey and field evaluations should provide updated projections of yields, anticipated exports and adjusted prices for the 2024 crop.

At 12H00 CDT on September 12^th the CME corn quotation for September delivery was down 1.6 percent to 382 cents per bushel for September delivery. Corn price was influenced by acreage planted, ethanol demand and the ending stock from the 2023 crop. Farm selling has increased, given the need to make room for the 2024 crop. It is estimated that 61 percent of corn stock was held on farms at the end of July. Export orders for the current market year have increased in response to lower prices. Volumes and price are indirectly influenced by wheat availability as influenced by weather affecting the Black Sea wheat and corn crops and events in the Red Sea. Orders by China resumed at the end of the 2022-2023 market-year and continued through August, with recent declines in the Dollar Index, albeit with increased ocean freight. Total exports for the 2023-2024 market year were 36.9 percent higher than for the 2022-2023 year.

Soybeans were priced at 980 cents per bushel for September 2024 delivery, still below the 1,000-cent psychological threshold. Price was down 1.9 percent compared to 999 cents per bushel for September delivery last week. Lower prices were attributed to the projection of ending stock, more farm selling and taking into account recent export orders and projections of availability from the 2024 U.S., Brazil and Argentine harvests. Total exports for the 2023-2024 market year were 14.9 percent lower than for market year 2022-2023.

Soybean meal traded at $313 per ton for September delivery, down 1.9 percent from $319 per ton last week. Price was influenced by demand coupled with high crush volumes for consecutive months from December 2023 through July 2024 inclusive, although with a lower volume in June. Price will fluctuate to reflect the CME price for soybeans and the depressed demand for biodiesel due to oversupply and the consequential adverse financial situation in this sector. The market previously responded to the increased 2023 crop and higher stocks together with projections for 2024 in the Revised August WASDE Reports updated from July.

On September 11^th at 18H00 EDT the price for WTI was lower by $2.63 (-3.7 percent) from last week to $67.31. Price this past week was influenced by Hurricane Francine, resulting in a transitory $2 per barrel spike on September 11 ^th. Current price is independent of the geopolitical uncertainties and tensions in the Middle East. The progressive decline in price reflects moderate world demand for crude as economies and especially that of China have retracted. It is evident that U.S. production is a moderating influence on World price, attaining a record average of 13.4 million barrels per day in July with ample reserves. There was a downward trend in the price of WTI during the week resulting in a range of $67.31 down to a September 10^th low of $63.78.

High U.S. production is constraining domestic and international prices. The recent decline in energy cost during the past month has contributed to deflation influencing the FOMC in their anticipated lowering of the benchmark interest rate at the September meeting.

Status of the 2024 Corn and Soybean Crops

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on September 9^th recorded 25 percent of the soybean crop dropping leaves. Twenty nine percent of the corn crop is now mature and 5 percent has been harvested, slightly ahead of the 5-year averages for the corresponding week.

Despite high temperatures across the Midwest and Plains states, crop condition was almost unchanged during the past week. Corn and soybeans attained 64 and 65 percent respectively for the two highest categories of “Good” and “Excellent.” The September 8^th values for corn and soybean quality were considerably higher than the 52 percent recorded for both corn and soybean crops for the two highest categories during the corresponding week in 2023. Prospects for high yields were reflected in lower price projections in the August WASDE and for CME prices for September delivery following the release of the report.

Based on the sum of the “Adequate” and “Surplus” categories, surface and subsoil moisture levels were higher than during the corresponding week in 2023. For the past week, surface and subsoil moisture values were lower, both at 53 percent for the two highest categories of ‘Adequate’ and ‘Surplus’ combined. Average topsoil moisture this past week was down one percent on average across 18 major row-crop states but still with an acceptable outlook for growth and quality in 2024 given the stage in production. Corresponding values of 42 percent percent were recorded for the two highest categories for topsoil and subsoil moisture respectively in 2023.

It is unlikely that the expected transition to a La Nina event will have any substantial impact on crop condition through harvest. Prolonged dry and hot weather apparent at this time will not depress corn and soy yields depending on timing and severity.

Heat stress that occurred during silking predisposes corn to fungal infection leading to mycotoxin contamination of kernels. Unseasonal rain during the pre-harvest period for corn will also result in elaboration of mycotoxins. The status of the 2024 crop will require monitoring at harvest in affected areas and especially if unseasonal precipitation occurs during the pre-harvest period.

Reference is made to the August 12^th WASDE Report #651 under the Statistics TAB and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report, in this edition, documenting acreage to be harvested, yields, weekly prices and ending stocks. WASDE #652 will be reviewed in the September 20^th edition.

During September the NASS will conduct their annual remote survey to estimate yields and final production. Pro Farmer completed their annual crop tour in mid-August. Their August 23^rd report estimated a corn yield of 181.1 bushels per acre with a projected crop of 14.98 billion bushels. The corresponding values for soybeans were a yield of 54.9 bushels per acre contributing to a 2024 crop of 4.74 billion bushels.

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2024 harvest in November.    

WEEK ENDING   Corn Status (18 states) * September 1st     September 8th 2024 5-Year Average  Corn Dough (%) 90 95 94 Corn Dented (%) 60 74 73 Corn Mature (%) 19 29 24 Corn Harvested (%) 0 5 3 Soybean Status (18 states)       Soybean Blooming (%) 100 100 100 Soybeans Setting Pods  (%) 94 97 96 Dropping Leaves (%) 13 25 21 *Representing 92% of 2024 acreage planted	Soybeans setting pods
Crop Condition  V. Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Corn  2024 (%) 4 8 24 48 16 Corn  2023 (%) 6 12 30 43 9             Soybeans  2024 (%) 3 7 25 52 13 Soybeans  2023 (%) 6 12 30 43 9	Corn Maturing
Parameter  48 States V. Short Short Adequate Surplus Topsoil Moisture:         Past Week 15 32 49 4 Past Year 25 33 40 2 Subsoil Moisture:         Past Week 14 31 52 3 Past Year 24 34 40 2

As the deadline to enact appropriations bills approaches, the House has was presented with H.W. 9494 by the Speaker to extend funding for government agencies for an additional six months.  The bill was regarded by the White House as being deficient in funding both military expenditures and providing for adequate disaster relief for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Members of the Freedom Caucus indicated that they would not support the Bill given provisions for expenditures that they consider excessive or conflict with their principles of fiscal restraint.

A provision in the bill  required proof of citizenship to be eligible to vote with the prospect of disqualification of some bone fide citizens.  The White House maintains that there is little or no evidence of voting by non-citizens, a crime punishable by federal law.

Given bipartisan dissatisfaction the Bill was tabled, leaving future funding in limbo.

Congress should place the good of the nation before partisan issues and cease brinkmanship.  Funding of federal agencies through figuratively ‘kicking the can down the road’ in a series of continuing resolutions is certainly no way to create an environment for future planning and effective government.

EGG-NEWS is indebted to Dr. Nati Elkin, publisher of Poultry Med, for a report on the success of the vaccination campaign against HPAI in the foie gras industry in France.  Last year, 35 million ducks received two doses of an inactivated vaccine against H5 avian influenza.  In addition, 1.5 million ducks received three doses before July 2024 in high-risk areas.  Inactivated vaccine was administered at 10 and 28 days with a third dose at 56 days. During May 2024 an mRNA vaccine was included in the vaccination protocol.

The effectiveness of the vaccine campaign was determined by comparing the expected value of losses based on records of outbreaks in recent years against the the incidence rate among the vaccinated flocks.  The study determined a relative reduction of 95.9 percent attributed to the vaccination program.

The result confirms the World Organization of Animal Health endorsement of vaccination as an adjunct to biosecurity in preventing avian influenza in high-risk regions.

With respect to foie gras production, ducks are allowed outside access before the intensive period of force-feeding effectively negating biosecurity.  The obvious benefit of vaccination should be recognized since there was no effective biosecurity. 

It would be instructive for USDA-APHIS to introduce protective immunization using currently available commercial vaccines in high-risk areas for egg producing and turkey grow-out flocks.  We do not have to evaluate the commercial vaccines that are produced by reputable manufacturers and are approved by international and national agencies.  We do not have to develop a new vaccine since products are available off-the-shelf.  We will have to develop epidemiologically valid protocols to evaluate the benefit of vaccines in anticipation of the fall migration of waterfowl with the attendant probability of a resurgence in HPAI.

According to a CDC Food Safety Alert issued on September 6^th, Milo’s poultry farm, located in Bonduel, WI, has recalled all eggs packed under the Milo’s and Tony’s Fresh Market brand.

FDA has confirmed that the outbreak strain of Salmonella Enteritidis (SE), affecting 65 patients with 24 hospitalizations among nine states was homologous with isolates from flocks and the packing plant. Traceback implicated Milo’s Poultry Farm operated by Milo and Edna Bontrager packing under the Certified Organic Seal.

The SE isolate is resistant to ciprofloxacin, an antibiotic of choice for treating intestinal infection including salmonellosis in humans.

Eggs produced by Milo’s Poultry Farms were sold to stores and restaurants in Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin despite the wide range of states reporting cases including California and Virginia.   Of the patients, age ranges from 2 to 88 years. Illnesses were recorded during late May extending through August. 

Decontamination of the farm will prove challenging given outside access that has presumably been contaminated with SE.

It will be of interest to learn the results of previous drag swab monitoring of the flocks for SE according to FDA requirements, given that the first recorded cases occurred in May.

Contrary to consumer perceptions, the Certified Organic Seal relates to compliance with the National Organic Program and is independent of food safety.

As with most foodborne Salmonella infections, the actual number of cases far exceeds the confirmed number as many patients with mild symptoms do not seek medical attention.  Even with treatment by a physician or at a medical facility, appropriate microbiological examination is not performed unless the patient is hospitalized. In the context of this outbreak, therapy using ciprofloxacin would have been less than effective given the resistance profile of the SE pathogen and the impact of the intestinal microbiome that would have been disrupted by this antibiotic.

A patient in a Missouri hospital undergoing treatment for influenza yielded an H5 virus as confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  There was no apparent known contact with food animals or poultry prior to onset of symptoms.  There was no evidence of human-to-human transmission to contacts. The patient made an uneventful recovery.

This sporadic case was identified following routine hospital assay that identified influenza A but was negative for seasonal influenza virus subtypes. This apparent inconsistency resulted in  submission of the virus to the CDC.

The case raises a number of questions focussing on the source of the infection (pet cats or birds? consumption of raw milk? occupational exposure? or factors as yet identified?) It would be important to determine whether the virus isolated from the patient was homologous with the mammalian adapted H5N1 B3.13 in dairy cows and rodents. H5 influenza resulting in hospitalization requires expedient and thorough epidemiologic investigation by a CDC team. Transparency with prompt reporting of relevent information.  Epidemics start with a few cases and are easier to contain at an early stage in an outbreak.

On August 30^th, authorities in Poland reported an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza to the World Organization for Animal Health.  The case involved a flock of 20,000 birds (type unspecified) in the town of Swiebotzin in Lubusz Province (Voivodeship) in western Poland bordering Germany and close to tthe Czech Republic.

Predictably China announced September 6^th that it was placing an embargo on all poultry products shipped from Poland on or after the outbreak.  Contrary to WOAH protocol, China with endemic avian influenza against which vaccination is routinely performed, has imposed an embargo on the entire nation ignoring the principle of zoning.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security confirmed the first outbreak of avian influenza in Israel after a pause of nine months.  The outbreak involved a turkey grow-out complex comprising nine houses of approximately 9,000 birds each with index house aged 14 weeks.  The outbreak occurred on Moshav (ccoperative) Nahalal in northern Israel and is a roccurrence from 2023.

The strain was not specified but based on seasonal outbreaks, H5N1 is presumed to be responsible.  The flock was depleted, and the Ministry of Agriculture has established a quarantine six-miles in radius around the Moshav with intensive surveillance.

On September 9^th, Cal-Maine Foods announced the acquisition of 51 percent of the equity of Crepini Foods, LLC.  The company, located in Hopewell Junction, NY., manufactures a range of egg wraps, protein pancakes, crepes and gluten-free Pancheesi® pancakes.

In commenting on the joint venture, Sherman Miller, President and CEO of Cal-Maine Foods, noted, “We are pleased to announce our strategic investment in Crepini Foods that aligns with our growth strategy to enhance our product portfolio and focus on value-added products and other egg-product opportunities.”  He added, “This new venture will complement our other egg product offerings from our growing Meadow Creek operation offering hard-cooked eggs for institution, food service and retail needs.”

Paula Riner Shkolnik, CEO of Crepini Foods, LLC, stated, “This partnership will allow us to make our products available to more national and international customers and continue to provide innovations in the egg specialty products category.”

On September 5^th Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported sales for August 2024 covering the four weeks ending September 1^st.  For the period, sales attained $19,830 million, up 7.1 percent from the value of $18,500 million during the corresponding month in 2023.

Same store sales (excluding fuel and foreign exchange) increased 6.7 percent for the U.S.; 5.8 percent for Canada and 10.8 percent for international warehouses.  Overall, same-stores sales advanced by 7.1 percent and E-commerce was 23.1 percent higher.

Costco closed on Sept 5^th after release of the data at $885.98. COST market capitalization was $394,580 million on August 5^th and the share has traded over a 52-week range of $540.23 to $918.98 with a 50-day moving average of $855.36.

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates 890 warehouses with 614 in the U.S.; 108 in Canada; 40 in Mexico and the remainder in nine other nations.

A ProMED Mail release confirmed that the ongoing outbreak of salmonellosis attributed to backyard chickens has now increased to 409 cases with 102 hospitalizations as of August 19^th.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has collected data on cases extending from February 18^th to August 5^th, 2024.  The actual number of those infected is considerably higher than the confirmed diagnoses since only those severely affected seek medical attention and not all patients receive a laboratory workup with microbiological examination.

Among the cases, eight serotypes of Salmonella were identified including S. Enteritidis, S. Mbandaka and S. Typhimurium. Among the 344 isolates from patients and also 42 environmental samples, 10.2 percent were resistant to ciprofloxacin. Isolates were resistant to a range of antibiotics of human health significance at rates from 0.7 to 2.0 percent.

Multiple hatcheries were involved in shipping infected chicks based on examination of chick box liners. The range of age among patients extended from 1 to 93 years but 27 percent were under the age of 5.

In 1975, the FDA banned interstate movement of immature turtles known to be a source of Salmonella infection.  Salmonellosis especially among children fell sharply the following year. Backyard chickens are now so pervasive that a ban would be impractical. Given that recommendations to improve hygiene and precautions to prevent infection are inadequate alternative protective measures are required.  Either federal intervention at the hatchery level will be required to reduce the incidence rate or civil litigation will force hatcheries to either “clean up their act” or cease operation.

The National Institute of Animal Agriculture (NIAA) has announced the appointment of two co-chairs for the Antibiotics Council.  Dr. Heather Fowler, Director of Producer and Public Health for the National Pork Board and Dr. Alexandra Medley, Associate Director for Antimicrobial Resistance within the Division of Foodborne, Waterborne And Environmental Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are the appointees.

Dr. Fowler earned her Veterinary degree from the University of Pennsylvania in 2010 followed by a Master’s in Public Health and Applied Biostatistics and Epidemiology from the Yale School of Public Health the following year and a PhD in Environmental and Occupational Hygiene from the University of Washington School of Public Health in 2017.

Dr. Alexandra Medley earned both Doctor of Veterinary Medicine and Master’s in Public Health degrees from the Ohio State University.

The National Institute of Animal Agriculture was established in 1916 to disseminate scientific information and to consider and resolve issues relating to agriculture through specialized topic-oriented groups.

The Antibiotics Council will host an annual antibiotics symposium in Denver, Colorado from December 19^th through 21^st, 2024.

The USDA issued a series of guidelines on August 28^th relating to label claims for livestock and poultry. According to Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, “The revision to existing guidelines is intended to establish fairness and choice for farmers and consumers and support transparency and high-quality standards” He added, “These updates will help to level the playing field for businesses who are fully using these claims and ensure people can trust the labels when they purchase meat and poultry products.” 

In 2023, the FSIS determined that twenty percent of beef samples from 84 processing plants in 34 states yielded antibiotic residues in liver and kidney tissue despite negative antibiotic claims.  The USDA received public comments, petitions and feedback from wide range of stakeholders in developing the updated guidelines that are now subject to a 90-comment period and will take effect 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.

Principles developed in the new guidelines include the need for third-party validation of claims especially those relating to the environment. It is emphasized that claims including “free-range” and “raised without antibiotics” are voluntary but USDA is now requiring substantiation and documentation before approval as a label claim.

After adoption of the guidelines, USDA may consider a program of random sampling and additional rulemaking to ensure veracity and transparency.

USAPEEC, Mexico organized a series of six training modules in cooperation with the National Autonomous University of Mexico.  Each of the six modules was organized by the School of Veterinary Medicine with a cooking session conducted at the Technological University of Mexico.

Educational programs directed to importing nations benefits U.S. producers through engendering confidence in U.S. egg products.

Mexico is a significant importer of eggs receiving 15 million dozen during 2023 valued at $17.4   million up 290 percent in volume and value compared to 2022. Mexico imported 4,704 metric tons of egg products in 2023 valued at $22.8 representing a 65 percent increase in value and volume over the previous year.

Yellow Banana has announced the opening of the first of six Save A Lot stores after extended delays. The Company was under pressure from both residents and the City of Chicago that advanced $14 million in subsidies and provided tax concessions amounting to a total of $26 million. Yellow Banana was obliged to open six stores within a two-year period. Renovations of premises included new air conditioning systems, cold rooms, lighting, flooring and fixtures.

Joe Canfield, CEO of Yellow Banana, stated, “We are proud to take steps to re-introduce the Save A Lot brand to Chicago by reopening our stores.  I am confident that the investment made to our remodel and upgrade will pay off for shoppers.”

Attempts to provide residents of so-called food deserts with grocery stores have been largely unsuccessful due to theft and crime.  The City of Chicago has an investment in the success of the Save A Lot stores and accordingly, should provide security.  Communities served by the stores have an obligation to contribute to their viability through exercising pressure on individuals within their neighborhoods who engage in antisocial activities.

The 2024 edition of the Georgia Layer Conference will be presented in virtual form on September 23^rd.

Topics to be considered will include egg quality and safety management, best practices and innovations for optimizing production. The program will include a poultry disease update and a review of the U.S. egg market.  Registration is $20 but with no charge for students. For additional information, contact Dr. Casey Ritz critz@uga.edu.

A serologic survey of goats and sheep in Pakistan revealed widespread exposure to influenza A including H5, H7 and H9 serotypes.

Regional differences were evident among the approximately 800 samples examined. A high proportion demonstrated antibodies in Punjab consistent with a concentration of commercial poultry.

During March a goat herd in Minnesota was diagnosed with H5N1 influenza by demonstrating virus applying PCR. Mortality in the herd followed an outbreak among chickens on the small farm.

Following the Brexit debacle, U.K. egg producers and especially those operating free-range systems were faced with escalation in the costs of feed, labor and energy. A number of supermarket chains including Aldi adjusted prices and provided cash supplements to farmers.  In contrast, Sainsbury’s were reluctant to increase payments and as their supplying farmers ceased production, their supply chain was constrained. A February survey conducted by the National Farmers Union showed that nearly a quarter of egg producers were unsure of whether they would continue producing eggs in 2025.

In response to representations by the British Free Range Egg Producers Association and possibly informal government intervention, Sainsbury’s has reversed course and has established the Egg Group.  This arrangement involves three major egg packers and over 100 independent supply farms. The previous Conservative government established a Parliamentary Committee to evaluate the stability of the U.K. food chain including farm income that representing the potential for publicizing unfair sourcing policies by Sainsbury’s.

Sainsbury’s has now agreed to pay farmers more than the cost of production for eggs supplied.  Peripheral considerations include exchange of information on production practices and welfare.  The supermarket is, however, imposing requirements on carbon emission and farmers will have to submit to audits.  It is presumed that additional costs involved in compliance with Sainsbury’s standards will be renumerated.

Sodexo, a multinational food service company, has introduced breakfast burritos to U.S. college campuses for the 2024 fall term.  The product comprises a soft flour tortilla stuffed with eggs, cheese, bacon, crispy potatoes, avocados and seasoning.  Sodexo introduced breakfast burritos based on innovations developed by the Dog Haus brand founded in California in 2010.  The alliance between Dog Haus and Sodexo is an attempt to recreate traditional foods enjoyed during childhood and refined for college years.

Breakfast burritos will be introduced to the University of Cincinnati and Arkansas State University this semester.  It is intended to expand the range of universities serving the burrito and to modify the content with alternative meats and seasonings. Bacon will not be acceptable at many universities with students’ religious dietary observances.

Malathion, an organophosphate insecticide and a potential neurotoxin, is widely used for pest control including suppression of insects that affect poultry. It is estimated that 2.7 million pounds of malathion is applied annually in the U.S. A coalition of environmental activists including the Center for Biological Diversity, Center for Food Safety and Pesticide Action Network North America recently filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service claiming the agency is in violation of the Endangered Species Act.  In 2017, scientists within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service produced a report confirming that unrestricted use of malathion would be detrimental to at least 500 threatened and endangered species that are dependent on insect pollination.  During the previous Administration, the findings and recommendations made by scientists were reversed by the then Secretary of the Interior. This essentially moved the goal posts by altering the criteria to assess any potential detrimental effects of pesticides.

The Fish and Wildlife Service under the present Administration prepared a revised 2022 opinion on malathion concluding that continued use of the insecticide would not affect any protected species of wildlife or plant.  The opinion did, however, suggest restrictions on spraying malathion.  Mosquito vectors have emerged as a cause of an increased incidence of arboviral infections including West Nile disease, equine encephalitis and dengue fever.

The poultry industry needs malathion, and application within houses should not represent a problem to the environment. It is hoped that as with the case of rodenticides that there will be no outright bans allowing regulated use by trained applicators.

EGG-NEWS has consistently campaigned for either subsidized or preferably free universal school meals.  A number of states have introduced either breakfasts or lunches or both irrespective of family finances.  Any program to facilitate school feeding is beneficial to the agricultural sector and to children and their families.

A recent investigation in Montana disclosed that an exorbitant fee was charged by the MySchoolBucks website to process bi-weekly payments by parents.  The cost of a luncheon in the state was $3.25 including milk but the fee imposed was $3.25 for 10 meals.  MySchoolBucks is a subsidiary of Global Payments Inc., a company that has drawn criticism from consumer organizations and the federal government. MySchoolBucks grosses more than $100 million a year for processing school lunch payments according to the Federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  In some cases, families may pay 60 cents in fees for every $1 they spend on lunch payments.

It is anticipated that a class action lawsuit will soon be filed that will present evidence of extortionary fees although with many iniquities the status quo is supported by an extensive lobbying campaign.  Shame on legislators who accepting money from Global Payments and other enterprises that impose extra expense on financially stressed families.

Following the ongoing Listeria outbreak attributed to Boar’s Head Foods and with the recent history of the infant formula debacle, lead-tainted cinnamon, contaminated leafy greens, eyedrops and blood thinners containing pathogens and arsenic in juices, support is growing for a separate federal food safety administration that would assume the responsibilities currently assigned to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The Federal Food Administration Act introduced into Congress by Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) would establish the proposed Agency under the Department of Health and Human Services.

Apart from the obvious failure to detect and respond appropriately to recent foodborne disease outbreaks, the FDA has been grossly negligent in inspecting both pharmaceutical and food producing plants under their jurisdiction.   The Agency attributes this negligence and dereliction of responsibility to the restrictions imposed during the COVID years.  This is errant nonsense.  Since both domestic and foreign plants operated with company personnel, FDA inspectors could have undertaken in-person audits, especially after vaccination became available.  The FDA has a backlog of inspections with only about 2,500 scheduled for 2024 compared to 4,300 annually pre-COVID.

Despite the belated restructuring of FDA and the appointment of a Deputy Director responsible for Food and Nutrition, it is questioned whether the changes made will rise even to the level of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

 Even if the Federal Food Administration Act is passed, it does not address the divided responsibility between the USDA-FSIS responsible for red meat and poultry.  The Boar’s Head case has disclosed failure to enforce acceptable standards of plant operation over an extended period by this Agency.

Unless the proposed Food Safety Agency has responsibilities for all food, there will be jurisdictional and structural overlap resulting in conflicts such as the responsibility for pizza toppings and oversight over shell eggs as compared to egg products.  The compromise over cell-cultured meat with inappropriate regulation of this aspect of food production by the FDA and not the USDA is an example of organizational dysfunction. Delays in approval of gene deletion for food-producing animals illustrates the profound restrictions imposed by division of responsibility and disinclination to surrender “turf” to the detriment of stakeholders.

From a practical aspect, it would be expedient to establish a Federal Food Safety Administration to assume the food-related responsibilities of the FDA. Thereafter regulation and inspection of red meat and poultry could be transferred to the Agency to facilitate a smooth transition to an established entity with competent staffing and a proven record of accomplishment.

With an apparent 40 million cases of foodborne illness annually in the U.S. requiring over 100,000 hospitalizations and 3,000 fatalities, the incompetence of the FDA with respect to food safety cannot be ignored and passage of the Federal Food Administration Act is strongly supported.