OVERVIEW

Understandably the February 11^th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #668 projecting the 2026 season was little changed from the previous January 12^th edition. Crop size and ending stocks were selected from previous harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The February WASDE report projected that the 2026 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 91.3 million acres, (90.0 million acres in 2025). The soybean crop will be harvested from an almost unchanged 80.4 million acres, (80.3 million acres in 2025).

The February WASDE yield value for the 2026 corn crop was held at 186.5 bushels per acre. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was retained at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from 2025 reflecting previous harvests. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the 2024 crop.

The February WASDE projection for the 2026 ending stock of corn was lowered by100 million bushels 4.5 percent) from January to 2,127 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the 2026 ending stock of soybeans was unchanged from January at 350 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The February WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2026-2027 market year to an average of 410 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged at $295 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest rising feed costs for livestock and poultry producers given projections for yields, domestic use and the prospect of increased exports. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced a “bridging” allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

 Projections for world output included in the February 2026 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also consider the impact of weather patterns arising from Southern Oscillation events especially on these nations and their neighbors.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans since the 2024-2025 market year extending into the current year.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the January WASDE, reflecting the predicted yield, and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The February WASDE Report projected a 2026 crop of 17,021 million bushels, compared to 16,752 million bushels for the previous 2025 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged for 2026 at 6,200 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,370 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs during winter months. Projected corn exports were raised to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be down 100 million bushels to 2,127 million bushels or 11.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the WASDE report was 410 cents per bushel. At close of trading after the noon February 11^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 429 cents per bushel, 4.6 percent above the USDA projection and 1.9 percent above the January 12^th CME price.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Summary for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 410 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were retained from the January WASDE to reflect the 2026 crop. Yield of 53.0 bushels per acre was held but with an area of 81.2 million acres planted compared to 2025. The February WASDE retained the projection for the 2026 soybean crop at 4,262 million bushels. Crush volume was held at 2,570 million bushels consistent with anticipated demand and industry capacity. Projected exports were retained at 1,575 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 350 million bushels. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The January USDA projection for the ex-farm seasonal price for soybeans was held at 1,020 cents per bushel. At close of trading on February 11^th following the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,129 cents per bushel, 1.7 percent above the February USDA projection and 7.5 percent above the January 12^th CME price, reflecting prospects of higher exports.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Summary for the 2026 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,020 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were unchanged from the January WASDE. Production will be up to 60.8 million tons, consistent with the retained soybean crush volume of 2,570 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 42.0 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.4 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $295 per ton, unchanged from the January WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.7 percent of supply.

At close of trading on January 12^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $298 per ton, up $3 per ton (1.0 percent) compared to the USDA projection of $295 per ton and down 1.0 percent from the December 9^th CME price.

FEBRUARY 2026 WASDE #668 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Quantities in thousand short tons

Average Price ex plant:$295 per ton (Unchanged from the January WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2026 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is virtually unchanged at 1.590 billion tons. The 2025/26 foreign coarse grain supply and use outlook is essentially unchanged relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down fractionally as a decline for Mexico is mostly offset by an increase for the EU. Barley production is raised for Argentina but lowered for Turkey”. 

“Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports are higher for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam but lowered for the EU. Barley exports are raised for Argentina and Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher reflecting increases for Ukraine and Iran partly offset by a decline for Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 289.0 million tons, are down 1.9 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 soybean supply and use forecasts include increased production, crush, and ending stocks. Production for Brazil is raised 2.0 million tons to 180.0 million on higher area and yield, reflecting beneficial weather throughout the season and state-level reporting.  Production for Paraguay is increased 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million on favorable rainfall over the season”.

“Soybean crush is raised for Brazil and Paraguay driven by higher global soybean meal demand, particularly for the EU based on import pace to date. Similar to the United States, growth in EU oilseed meal demand grew substantially in 2024/25 due to competitive prices. In 2025/26, the growth is expected to moderate with a higher share of rapeseed meal given the recovery of the crop this marketing year.

China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans. Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the United States, global soybean exports will likely be shifted with more U.S. shipments to China and less to other markets”.

‘Global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.1 million tons to 125.5 million on higher stocks for Brazil. Another notable revision is higher 2025/26 palm oil production for Malaysia, up 0.5 million tons to 20.2 million”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

The volume of exports of shell eggs and products is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports into the U.S. are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor during the first nine months of 2025.

USAPEEC data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

                           U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING

                            JANUARY-NOVEMBER INCLUSIVE IN 2025 COMPARED WITH 2024

*The data published by USDA for shell eggs are slightly different from USAPEEC figures included in this table.

For the eleven-month period Canada was the export destination of 69.7 percent of U.S. shell eggs followed by the Caribbean at 19.9 percent. For egg products the four major importers collectively comprised 79.0 percent of volume with the relative proportions represented by Japan (29.4%); EU, (19.6%); Mexico, (16.1%) and Canada, (15.7%),  

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview, February 6^th, shell eggs exported over 11 months attained 52.3 million dozen. This represents the average production of 2.6 million hens or 0.9 percent of the current population of producing hens. All egg products including liquid and dried, attained 66.7 million dozen shell equivalents for a total of 119.0 million dozen shell equivalents over eleven months. Imports over the same period comprised 71.9 million dozen shell eggs for breaking and 40.3 million dozen shell egg equivalents over all product forms for a total of 112.2 million dozen shell equivalents

Net positive trade was therefore 6.8 million dozen shell equivalents

The trade situation during 2026 will be influenced by the needs of importers as influenced by HPAI, an erratic tariff situation, landed price and availability. Since supply has increased in volume with a sharp decrease in domestic price, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with a more competitive situation.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering January 2026, was released on February 2^nd 2026.

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 21.0 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 70,000 hens or 0.3 percent from December 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.2 million hens or 1.9 percent from December 2025 to 121.8 million, attributed to expansion, transition from conventional cages and repopulation of depleted flocks.

Extensive depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through January and February 2025 (31 million), but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million) and a single large complex in Arizona during May (3.8 million). Losses reemerged during late September in a caged-bird complex in Wisconsin (3.1 million hens and 250,000 pullets). Additional depopulations occurred in October, (2.2 million); November, 0.5 million; December, (0.2 million); January (1.5 million) and February (1.4 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in January 2026 was up 1.0 percent percent (rounded) compared to December 2025 with a high average weekly production of 83.9 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.5 percent in January 2026, with a high average hen-month production of 82.6 percent. Seasonally placed flocks in anticipation of periods of peak demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs, reflecting pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the elevated production rates recorded other than the high proportion of young hens reaching peak placed in anticipation of December demand. It is also assumed that almost all cage free flocks are in the first cycle of production with negligible molting contributing to the high average in hen-week values compared to caged hens.

The categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system for January was unavailable among the assumed 295 million producing hens. The breakdown will be provided when data is released.

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 comprised:-

Caged flocks, 24.8 million representing 8.4 percent of a nominal 290 million producing hens

Cage-free flocks, 17.6 million representing 5.9 percent of the national flock

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

 *October and November data was not released to compile Q4 average

On January 2^nd 2026 USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases (rounded) with the change from December 2025 as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes. 1,395,000. (-3.0%)

Commodity breaking stock. 360,800. (-0.4%)

Specialty eggs. 32,400. (+4.9%)

Certified organic eggs. 81,100. (-4.5%)

Cage-Free eggs 438,600. (-1.1%) equivalent to 1.6 days production

*Essentially a meaningless value

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for January 2026 averaged $0.43 per dozen, down $0.45 per dozen (-51.7 percent) from $0.88 per dozen in December 2025, reflecting a disturbance in balance between demand and supply.

The January 2026 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over 1,429 ‘Lower 48’ stores in five regions (NW, NE, SW, MW and SC.) was $2.54 per dozen. This compares with 1,657 stores featuring cage-free Large White in December and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with lower demand and increased production. The January 2026 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large Brown cage-free eggs over 957 stores in five regions was $3.45 per dozen with a range of $1.99 per dozen in the NW region to $4.08 per dozen in the MW region. The average promotional shelf price was only 2 cents per dozen above December 2025 for this category

The recorded average gradeable nest run price of $0.43 per dozen for brown and white cage-free combined plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $1.03 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average advertised promotional retail prices of $3.45 per dozen for Brown and $1.46 per dozen for white represented retail margins of 235 percent for featured Brown and 146 percent for White respectively. Fewer promotions were offered for Brown compared to White-shelled cage-free by stores reflecting the balance between supply and demand for the two broad categories. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $8.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers are maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restricting the volumes of sales, of all categories ultimately disadvantageous to producers and consumers.

This update of U.S egg-production costs and available prices is provided for the information of producers and stakeholders. Statistical data was unavailable for October and November due to the Federal shutdown. Most December figures are now available in this January edition. November cost and price updates provided by the EIC are included in this review for trend comparisons.

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 122 cents per dozen, down 59 cents per dozen or 32.6 percent from the November 2025 value of 181 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $1.56 and $4.24 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen covering 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, as determined by the economy, supply as influenced by flock placements, incidence of HPAI, net imports and the rate of replacement of depopulated pullets and hens and planned depletion. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Imports of shell eggs continued during the first three quarters of 2025 with the cumulative negative trade balance attaining 19.9 million dozen shell-equivalents through October. During October the positive trade balance in shell-eggs amounted to 7.7 million dozen. For 2025 through October, U.S. liquid and dried products combined achieved a positive trade balance of 15.9 million case-equivalents with October rising to 5.2 million dozen shell-egg equivalents.
• December 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 110 cents per dozen. The November 2025 value was 147 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2023 and 2024 values were respectively 287 and 551 cents per dozen.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An important factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts. A high proportion of available eggs in this category accentuates the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Extreme fluctuation is exemplified by high prices prevailing in the 1^st quarter of 2025 and low values during December 2025 and January 2026. The price differential does not reflect relatively small changes in available production or presumed demand.
• The response to highly pathogenic avian influenza as distorted by the price discovery system was the major driver of prices in 2024 and through 2025 due to the high seasonal incidence rates. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 45 million birds, (hens and pullets) in both large complexes and contract farms through 2025. The Fall 2025 losses involved complexes of 3.1 million hens in late September and 2.0 million in early October. During November 570,000 hens producing table eggs were depopulated on 22 farms in close geographic proximity with flock losses averaging 24,000 per event. This suggested the vulnerability of contract producers of cage free eggs with common risk factors including feed supply and egg collection. This trend is a departure from losses involving a few very large complexes evident in the wave of cases during early fall months.
• December 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 75.5 cents per dozen, down 0.2 cents from November 2025 at 75.7 cents per dozen as influenced by feed cost. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged and certified organic hens was estimated by the EIC to be 95.1 cents per dozen down 0.2 cents per dozen from November. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 46.5 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 105.3 cents per dozen in November 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 172 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen in 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• December 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs was 14.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 40.9 cents per dozen in November 2025. Through December the average monthly nest-run production margin attained 293 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The December 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be up by 4.2 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 290.1 million compared to 285.9 in August. There were approximately 326 million hens before the advent of the H5N1 epornitic of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt during the month together with projected maturation of 23 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens. On January 14^th USDA estimated the total U.S table-egg production flock at 300.0 million with 293.4 million actually in production.
• November 2025 pullet chick hatch of 26.0 million was down 2.7 million (-9.4 percent) from October, inconsistent with an increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.
• October export data is reviewed in a companion article in this edition. In October 2025 exports of shell-eggs and products combined were up 26.4 percent from September 2025 to 459,200 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 6.8 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 162,000 cases were dominated by Canada (80 percent of volume) the “Rest of Americas” including the Caribbean (6 percent). With respect to 297,000 case- equivalents of egg products, importers comprised the E.U (26 percent), Canada (16 percent of volume), “Rest of Americas and the EU (each 20 percent), Japan, (24 percent), Mexico, (7 percent) collectively representing 79 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competing suppliers, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.
• For 2025 through October the negative trade balance in all shell and derived egg products attained 4.1 million dozen shell equivalents.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2025 costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on January 16^th 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2025 release reflecting November 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA and EIC values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

1. From USDA Weekly Shell-egg Demand Indicator January 14^th 2026

*Source USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality 

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025

Based on a nominal denominator of 300 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA) 81.5 September 2025.  81.8 % November 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook January 16^th 2026 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation and net importation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2025, 7.03 November 2025, 6.58

EXPORTS OCTOBER 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.2 percent of National production in OCTOBER 2025 comprising 35% shell, 65% products.

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West representing an important deficiency 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting December2025:-

122.0 cents per dozen¹- 75.5 cents per dozen =46.5 cents per dozen (November 2025 comparison: 181.0 cents per dozen – 75.7 cents per dozen = 105.3 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for December 2025:-

Cage-Free brown 110.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.1 cents per dozen =14.9 cents per dozen

November 2025:-  Not disclosed

1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Negligible change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.
2. Negotiated price, loose. Range $0.40 to $1.90 per dozen
3. Estimate based on prevailing costs
4. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

On January 16^th 2026 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2024 with an updated projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 15^th 2025 report.

Projected egg production for 2025 was adjusted downward from 7,737 million dozen in 2024 by 4.8 percent to 7,366 million dozen due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI. Heavy losses occurred during Q1 2025  with incident cases extending through December totaling 42.3 million hens for the year. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2025 will be 259.2 eggs, down 11.4 egg equivalents (-4.2 percent) from 2024. The projected average 2025 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 70 cents per dozen over 2024 to 374 cents per dozen. On January 16^th the price was 72 cents per dozen reflecting both increased supply and depressed consumption in that market. Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing inflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs, even with retailers maintaining high margins and failing to pass on savings to consumers.

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 1.0 million per week offset by losses due to depopulation. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and for some producers, by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On December 31^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA to be 301 million hens, 25 million or 7.7 percent below the nominal flock averaging 326 million hens during 2021 before the onset of the ongoing HPAI epornitic. Effective January 16^th the total national flock attained 300.0 million, approximately 26 million (-8.0 percent) below the pre-HPAI level. The productive flock was estimated by the USDA to be 293.4 million on January 14^th. Cage-free flocks during December attained 140 million or 46.6 percent of the total. In the January report the Egg Industry Center confirmed a total flock of 302.8 million at the end of December 2025. Unpredictable factors affecting flock size and hence price will include consumer demand as influenced by recently lower shelf prices for generic eggs and the extent of possible losses during the early winter months of the current year.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 1.8 percent of total production over the first ten months of 2025 attained 104.5 million dozen shell-egg equivalents. This was offset by imports of 108.7 shell egg-equivalents. Exports did not materially affect the domestic price. The U.S. is currently a net importer of egg products and shell eggs for breaking amounting to 4.2 million shell-egg equivalents. Future export volume will be encouraged by low domestic prices and bthe the needs of importing nations but will be constrained by international competition and disease-related embargos.

The USDA forecast for 2026 includes production of 7,900 million dozen, up an optimistic 7.2 percent from 2025. Projected consumption will be 273.7 eggs per capita. This forecast presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets. These are both speculative assumptions in the absence of approved vaccination in high-risk areas. The increase, if it were to become reality would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $1.20 per dozen compared to the 2025 value of $3.73 per dozen for conventional Large white-shelled product in cartons.

Updated January 2024 USDA data is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses.

Sourcs:   Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16^th 2026

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering December 2025, was released on January 2^nd 2026, the first edition since October 1^st 2025 covering September

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.9 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 0.9 million hens or 4.5 percent since September 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.9 million hens or 2.7 percent from September 2025 to 119.5 million, attributed to expansion, transition from conventional cages and repopulation of depleted flocks.

Extensive depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million), but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million) and a single large complex in Arizona during May (3.8 million). Losses reemerged during late September in a caged-bird complex in Wisconsin (3.1 million hens and 250,000 pullets). Additional depopulations occurred in October, (2.2 million); November, 0.5 million and December, (0.2 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in December 2025 was up 5.1 percent percent (rounded) compared to September 2025 with a high average weekly production of 83.3 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.7 percent in December 2025, with a high average hen-month production of 82.1 percent. Seasonally placed flocks in anticipation of periods of peak demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs, reflecting pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the elevated production rates recorded other than the high proportion of young hens reaching peak placed in anticipation of December demand. It is also assumed that almost all cage free flocks are in the first cycle of production with negligible molting contributing to the high average in hen-week values compared to caged hens.

Due to the Federal shutdown and temporary cessation of the USDA Egg Markets Overview and available data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator, the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system for December was unavailable among the assumed 290 million producing hens. The breakdown will be provided when data is released.

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 comprised:-

Caged flocks, 24.8 million representing 8.4 percent of a nominal 290 million producing hens

Cage-free flocks, 17.6 million representing 5.9 percent of the national flock

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

On December 29^th USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases (rounded) with the change from September as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes. 1,516,800. (-2.7%)

Commodity breaking stock. 404,100. (+17.5%)

Specialty eggs. 45,500. (+16.3%)

Certified organic eggs. 86,900. (-2.6%)

Cage-Free eggs 425,700. (-3.0%) equivalent to 1.5 days production

*Essentially a meaningless value

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for December 2025 averaged $0.88 per dozen, down $0.59 per dozen (-40.1 percent) from $1.47 per dozen in September 2025, reflecting a disturbance in balance between demand and supply.

The December 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over 1,646 ‘Lower 48’ stores in six regions (NW, NE, SE, SW, MW and SC.) was $2.63 per dozen. This compares with 1,182 stores featuring cage-free Large White in September and reflects more promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with lower demand and increased production. The Decenber 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large Brown cage-free eggs over 2,819 stores in six regions was $3.43 per dozen with a range of $2.50 per dozen in the SC region to $4.09 per dozen in the SW region. The average promotional shelf price was only 3 cents per dozen above September for this category

The recorded average gradeable nest run price of $0.88 per dozen for brown and white cage-free combined plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $1.48 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average advertised promotional retail prices of $3.43 per dozen for Brown and $2.63 per dozen for white represented retail margins of 131 percent for featured Brown and 77 percent for White respectively. Fewer promotions were offered for White compared to Brown cage-free by stores reflecting the balance between supply and demand for the two broad categories. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $8.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers are maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restricting the volumes of sales, of all categories ultimately disadvantageous to producers and consumers.

OVERVIEW

Understandably the December 9^th edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #666 was little changed with respect to corn and soybeans from the post-shutdown November 18^th edition reflecting the 2025 crop. Crop size and ending stocks were derived from actual harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The December WASDE report reconfirmed that the 2025 corn crop was harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop was harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The December WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was retained at 186.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from November. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. Soybean yield was held at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from November reflecting harvest data. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The December WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was lowered by 5.8 percent from November to 2,029 million bushels. The December USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was unchanged from November at 290 million bushels consistent with domestic use and export projections.

The December WASDE retained the projected corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 400 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was held at 1,050 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was unchanged from November at $300 per ton.

USDA commodity prices suggest higher feed costs for livestock and poultry producers especially if promised exports materialize. Farmers including corn growers will then benefit from increased prices. In some areas return from corn will be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and depressed per bushel prices. The USDA has announced an allocation of $12 billion to row-crop farmers to compensate for prolonged low commodity prices resulting from reduced exports occasioned by tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Projections for world output included in the December 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on volumes and prices offered by Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 market year and the current year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were unchanged from the November WASDE, reflecting actual harvest data and updated projections for domestic use and trade. The December WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,752 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from September at 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in late fall and winter months. Projected corn exports were raised 4.1 percent to 3,300 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,029 million bushels or 11.1 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the December WASDE report was 400 cents per bushel. At close of trading after the noon November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 448 cents per bushel, 12.0 percent above the USDA projection but unchanged from the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Summary for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 400 cents per bushel. (Unchanged from the December WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were retained from the November WASDE, with a 2025 yield of 53.0 bushels per acre but with a reduced area of 81.1 million acres planted compared to 2024. The December WASDE retained the soybean crop at 4,254 million bushels. Crush volume was held from November at 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were held at 1,635 million bushels despite the prospect of increased imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, unchanged from the November WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The December USDA WASDE projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was unchanged from November at 1,050 cents per bushel. At close of trading on December 9^th following the noon release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,088 cents per bushel, 3.6 percent above the December USDA projection and 3.5 percent below the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Summary for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,050 cents per bushel (Unchanged from November)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from the November WASDE. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, consistent with the unchsnged soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41.7 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 unchanged from the November WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At close of trading on December 9^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $301 per ton, up $1 per ton (0.3 percent) compared to the December WASDE projection of $300 per ton and down 8.2 percent from the November 18^th CME price.

DECEMBER 2025 WASDE #666 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$300 per ton (Unchanged from the November WASDE)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the December 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast down slightly to 1.576 billion tons. The

2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and higher ending stocks

relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for Ukraine, Canada,

Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal partially offset by increases for the EU, Russia, and

Zimbabwe. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield

based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow as a result of wet

conditions in key growing areas. Canada corn is reduced based on the latest information

from Statistics Canada. The EU is raised reflecting increases for Spain, Hungary, Romania,

and Poland. Foreign barley production is higher with increases for Canada, the EU, and

Australia”.

“Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Corn

imports are higher for Colombia with cuts for the EU and Zimbabwe. Barley exports are

raised for Australia, Canada, and the EU while Ukraine is reduced. Foreign corn ending

stocks are higher based on an increase for Argentina partly offset by declines for Ukraine

and Canada. Global corn stocks, at 279.2 million tons, are down 2.2 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is raised this month, driven mainly by higher rapeseed, peanut, and soybean production, partially offset by lower sunflowerseed output. Global rapeseed production is raised 3.0 million tons, with increases for Canada, Australia, and Russia. Canada has the largest increase, up 2.0 million tons to a record 22.0 million, based on the latest Statistics Canada report. Higher rapeseed production is mostly offset by lower global sunflowerseed production, down 2.5 million tons on harvest results for Ukraine and Russia. Current and historical peanut production is raised for Nigeria on official area data.

The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and raised ending stocks.”

“Global soybean production is increased 0.8 million tons to 422.5 million, reflecting higher crops for Russia and India but lower output for Canada and Ukraine. Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is increased 0.3 million tons to 365.2 million, mainly on higher supplies in Russia and India. Global soybean exports are lowered 0.3 million tons on lower shipments for Ukraine and Benin. Imports are reduced for Japan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia but raised for Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Russia”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

The volume of exports of shell eggs and products is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor during the 1^st Quarter of 2025.

USAPEEC data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

                           U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING

                            JANUARY-JULY INCLUSIVE IN 2025 COMPARED WITH 2024

*The data published by USDA for shell eggs are slightly different from USAPEEC figures included in this table.

For the seven-month period Canada was the export destination of 72.0 percent of U.S. shell eggs followed by the Caribbean at 19.1 percent. For egg products the four major importers collectively comprised 78.4 percent of volume with the relative proportions represented by Japan (25.2%); Canada, (20.4%), Mexico, (16.6%) and the EU, (16.2%).

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview, September 6^th, shell eggs exported attained 38.4 million dozen. All egg products including liquid and dried, attained 34.8 million dozen shell equivalents for a total of 73.2 million dozen shell equivalents over seven months. Imports over the same period comprised 58.5 million dozen shell eggs for breaking and 30.2 million dozen shell egg equivalents over all product forms for a total of 88.7 million dozen shell equivalents

Net trade deficit was therefore 15.5 million dozen shell equivalents

The trade situation will be influenced by tariff policy and the needs of importers during the remaining four months of 2025. Since supply will hopefully improve in volume, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with more competitive prices.

The following production data was summarized from the July 21^st 2025 edition of the USDA Chickens and Eggs-:

June 2025 pullet hatch, 29.7 million, up 14 percent from June 2024.

January to June 2025 cumulative pullet hatch, 177.9 million, up 9 percent from first half of 2025

July 1^st 2025 egg-type hatching eggs in incubators, 57.3 million, up 14 percent from July 1^st 2024

June 2025 pullets placed, 28.3 million, up 6 percent from June 2024

June 2025 pullets undergoing rearing, 129.4 million, up 2 percent from June 2024.

July 1^st 2025 hen population 288.1 million, down 5 percent from July 2024.

June 2025 table eggs produced, 7,074 billion, down 6 percent from June 2024.

July 1^st 2025 hens in molt, 2.1% of flock, up 17 percent from July 2024.

July 1^st 2025 hens completed molt, 9.8% of flock, up 4 percent from July 2024.

June 2025 disposal by slaughter, 12.6 million, up 6 percent from June 2024

June 2025 disposal by rendering, composting or death, 8.3 million, up 48 percent from June 2024.

The take-away from July data is the initiation of a replacement of the national flock that was reduced by depopulation of 39 million hens during the first five months of 2025. It is probable that the quantum of replacements will be consistent with anticipated demand, avoiding oversupply and depressed prices as recorded in 2016 and early 2023. If mortality due to HPAI returns during the fall migration of waterfowl or if extension of infection from dairy herds occurs, growth in the national flock will be impacted.

On June 18^th 2024 the USDA-Economic Research Service released updated production and consumption data with respect to broilers and turkeys, covering 2024, a projection for 2025 and a forecast for 2026.

The 2025 projection for broiler production is for 47,500 million lbs. (21.591 million metric tons) up 1.2 percent from 2024. USDA projected per capita consumption of 101.9 lbs. (46.3 kg.) for 2025, up 0.9 percent from 2024. Exports will attain 6,588 million lbs. (2.995 million metric tons), 2.0 percent below the previous year.

The 2026 USDA forecast for broiler production will be 48,100 million lbs. (21.864 million metric tons) up 1.1 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up 0.7 lb. to 102.6 lbs. (46.6 kg). Exports will be 1.2 percent higher compared to 2025 at 6,670 million lbs. (3.031 million metric tons), equivalent to 14.5 percent of production.

Production values for the broiler and turkey segments of the U.S. poultry meat industry are tabulated below:-

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released June 18^th 2025

The June USDA report updated projection for the turkey industry for 2025 including annual production of 4,806 million lbs. (2.185 million metric tons), down 6.2 percent from 2024. Consumption in 2025 is projected to be 13.0 lbs. (5.9 kg.) per capita, down proportionately by 5.8 percent from the previous year. Export volume will attain 405 million lbs. (184,090 metric tons) in 2025. Values for production and consumption of RTC turkey in 2025 are considered to be realistic, given year to date data, the prevailing economy, variable weekly poult placements, production levels, reduced losses from HPAI and inventories consistent with season.

The 2026 forecast for turkey production is 5,080 million lbs. (2.309 million metric tons) up an optimistic 5.7 percent from 2025 with per capita consumption up an unsubstantiated 3.8 percent to 13.5 lbs. (6.1 kg). Exports will be 19.7 percent higher than in 2025 to 435 million lbs. (197,728 metric tons) equivalent to 8.6 percent of production.

Export projections do not allow for a breakdown in trade relations with existing major partners including Mexico, Canada and China nor the impact of catastrophic diseases including HPAI and vvND in either the U.S. or importing nations

The volume of exports of shell eggs is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor.

USDA-FAS data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING JANUARY-MARCH 2024 COMPARED WITH 2024

Due to a deficiency in domestic supply relative to demand, importation during January through March 2025 amounted to 25.5 million shell-equivalent dozens. Monthly totals amounted to 2.1 million in January, 11.5 million in February and 11.9 million in March. For the quarter, imports expressed as a percentage of the total, comprised shell eggs, 58.6; egg liquids, 9.8 and dried egg, 31.6. Total egg imports during calendar 2025 are projected by the USDA to attain 32 million dozen shell equivalents suggesting restoration of supply as 78 percent of the calculated total was imported during the first quarter of 2025. Naturally if HPAI emerges in the fall flock depopulation will resume and the U.S. will revert to the situation that prevailed in late 2024 extending into 2025.

During April 2025 Brazil claimed to have exported 3.9 million dozen eggs to the U.S. valued at $6.3 million representing an extremely low FOB unit price of $1.57 per dozen.

Given the export of 35.8 million dozen shell equivalents over the first quarter of 2025 net exports attained 10.3 million dozen shell equivalents.

The trade situation will be influenced during the second quarter of 2025 if tariffs are imposed by the U.S. with the inevitability of reciprocal action by importing nations. Since supply will hopefully improve in volume, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with more competitive prices.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering April 2025, was released on May 2^nd 2025.

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from March 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 0.1 million hens or 0.1 percent from March 2025 to 105.3 million.

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million) but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in April 2025 was down 0.1 percent compared to March 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.2 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was down 0.1 percent percent in April 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.9 percent. Seasonally placed younger flocks in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator for April 30^th the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 283 million producing hens on April 1^st comprised:-

Caged, 157.3 million (55.7%);

Cage Free, 105.3 million (37.1%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20.4 million (7.2%) with 90% in barns and 5.0% each on free-range and pasture:

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 to date comprised:-

Caged flocks, 20.3 million representing 7.1 percent of nominal hens in production

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

*Validity of this unchanged population questioned

On May 5^th USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases with the weekly change as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

*March report listed only Brown, April report listed only White. All regions listed the same price

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for April 2025 averaged $4.48 per dozen, down $0.89 per dozen (16.6 percent) from $5.37 per dozen in March 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply.

The April 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW and SC.) was $7.99 per dozen. This compares with 153 stores offering cage-free Large Brown in March and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with the high incidence rate of HPAI during January and February followed by a decline.

The recorded average wholesale price of $4.48 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $5.08 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised promotional retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail margin of 57.2 percent (-16.4 percent last month for Large C-F brown) but with few promotions offered by limited number of stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continued through 2025 to date but with lower intensity in March. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering March 2025, released on April 1^st 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), down 0.1 million from February 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.7 million hens or 1.6 percent from February 2025 to 105.4 million, with negligible flock depopulation of laying hens but with loss of pullets during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in March 2025 was up 0.1 percent compared to February 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.3 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 2.1 percent in March 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 83.0 percent, up from 82.7 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously, especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 285 million hens on March 1^st was:-

Caged, 159 million (55.9% of 285 million hens);

Cage Free, 105 million (37.0%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20 million (7.2%) with 91% in barns and 4.5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Losses during Q1 of 2025 comprised:

Caged flocks, 19.3 million representing 6.8 percent of hen population

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, 0.1 percent

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for March 2025 averaged $5.37 per dozen, down 30.8 percent from $7.77 per dozen in February 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The March 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only three regions (NW, SW and SC.) was $4.99 per dozen, apparently down 37.5 percent or $3.80 per dozen from February 2025 based on 153 stores. This compares with 62 stores in February and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the incidence rate of HPAI during January and February.

The recorded average wholesale price of $5.37 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $5.97 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average three-region advertised promotional retail price of $4.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of -16.4 percent (-4.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as required through the fourth quarter of 2024 and has continued through 2025 to date as a result of HPAI. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering February 2025, released on March 3^rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.5 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 0.1 million from January 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.7 million hens or 2.7 percent from January 2025 to 103.7 million, despite extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in February 2025 was up 1.1 percent compared to January 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.0 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.3 percent in February 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.7 percent, up from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of flocks according to housing system among the total of 292 million hens on

February 1^st was:-

Caged, 169 million (57.2% of 292 million hens on February 1^st.);

Cage Free, 102 million (34.9%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 21 million (7.2%) with 5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for February 2025 averaged $7.74 per dozen, up 6.9 percent from $7.24 per dozen in January 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The February 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW & SC.) was $7.99 per dozen, apparently up $5.11 per dozen from January 2025 based on 62 stores. This compares with 133 stores in January and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI.

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.77 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $8.37 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 4.8 percent (-172.4 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

Egg Price and Inventory Report, January 29th 2025.

Market Overview

• The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up 8.3 percent on average this past week. Medium size was up 8.3 percent. Medium size was up a substantial 30.8 percent. The 5-day rolling National wholesale price for graded loose on January 24^th was $6.55 per dozen up $0.68 per dozen (+11.6 percent) from $5.88 last week. This value was approximately $4.05 above the 3-year average of 2.50 per dozen and $4.31 above the corresponding week in 2024 at $2.24 per dozen. Over the past week the NYC wholesale price in cartons was 7.7 percent higher and with the prospect of an increase during the coming week based on the trend of daily increases.
• The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 5.0 percent to $3.18 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were up 8.4 percent to $3.22 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock generally follow the wholesale price for shell eggs but with a lag of one to two weeks that may be reduced as in the present situation with diversion to the shell market.
• This past week shell egg inventory was down 2.0 percent, compared to a fall of 0.3 percent during the previous week. The fall in inventory with a large increase in wholesale price last week denotes sustained consumer demand relative to diminished supply. Fluctuation in inventory and price will occur through February based on the frequency and magnitude of orders by chains leading up to and beyond the unusual January surge in price intensified by ongoing 2025 losses due to HPAI. The national flock is down by a conservative estimate of 24 million hens at the present time, (with some depletions in progress)
• Although there are predetermined weekly transfers of mature pullet flocks to laying houses, the size of the producing flock is constrained by depopulation due to HPAI. Losses during 2024 attained approximately 40 million hens with the fall-winter wave in progress and with 2.6 million hens depopulated among four states in January 2025 to date.
• This past week, chains apparently widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. The reoccurrence of HPAI has probably created concern among chain buyers as they may previously have been reticent to place orders even with progressively increasing prices notwithstanding the need to ensure adequate stock levels to meet demand. Inventory levels this week reflected constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline. Discounters are raising prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are now far less competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods, and have recently been highlighted as a contributor to the prevailing perception among consumers of ongoing food inflation.
• Total industry inventory was down by 3.1 percent overall this past week to 1.43 million cases incorporating a 7.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 1.3 percent fall during the preceding week.
• It is apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important on a weekly basis in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional weekly inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and through the pipeline as determined by orders is probably responsible for up to three percent cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock. This is especially evident into or after a holiday weekend or major storm as evidenced by fluctuation inventory levels over the past two months.
• The U.S. egg-production industry experienced the loss of 40 million hens during 2024 together with over 4 million replacement pullets. Ongoing reports of HPAI diagnoses in backyard and non-commercial flocks (‘non-WOAH reportable’) and isolation from free-living domestic non-migratory birds suggests a continuation of outbreaks until waterfowl settle into their winter habitat. Not even the most stringent biosecurity can absolutely prevent introduction of avian influenza virus on dust particles entrained in air entering complexes and houses with negative ventilation. This predicates the limited and strategic application of H5 vaccine in high-risk areas. Over 950 confirmed cases of bovine influenza-H5N1 have been diagnosed in dairy herds in sixteen states since March 2024 with most having recovered. More than 700 herds were diagnosed in California and 65 in Colorado over the past five months with the high incidence rate a function of mandatory surveillance of bulk milk. Bovine influenza-H5N1 is a cause for concern since extension to laying flocks has presumably occurred in Michigan, Colorado, California and Utah. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS as it becomes available, concerning the prevalence rate of avian carriers of H5N1 among resident domestic and migratory free-living birds. This data should be correlated with a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the past spring outbreaks in order to respond appropriately to the fall wave of HPAI in progress. The USDA has yet to identify and release specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2024 epornitic including an acknowledgement of the likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances as suggested by current research.
• The established relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past three years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
• On January 29^th the stated total flock of 300.5 million, was down by 1.0 million from last week, including about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets per week that entered production to satisfy current demand. Given the latest figures for depopulation in Missouri, Ohio and California, and considering USDA-APHIS reports of depopulation, it is estimated that the total egg-producing flock at the end of January 2025 is approximately 26 million hens lower (-8.0 percent) than the 326 million before the onset of HPAI in 2022.

The Week in Review

Prices

According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports, released on January 27^th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 8.3 percent from last week to $7.04 per dozen. Large size was up 9.3 percent to $7.02 per dozen. Mediums were up 30.8 percent to $5.73 per dozen delivered to DCs. Continued increases are expected in the present week and extending through February

The stock of Medium size was down 5.4 percent, (down 13.6 percent in the Southwest Region but up 12.8 percent in the Southeast). The inventory of Small size was down 5.5 percent over the past week (South Central up 130 percent but Southwest down 45.8 percent). This indicates differences in timing of chick placements and regional demand. Surviving pullets placed in early September 2024 for mid-January 2025 production are now moving from Medium to Large. There is increased institutional demand for Medium size and some consumers are opting for smaller eggs based on price sensitivity.

Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 74.4 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for December 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 60 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with a low response).

Currently producers of generic shell eggs are operating with very strong positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices for loose eggs during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.

The January 27^th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value in cartons (rounded to the nearest cent), was up 61.0 percent to $6.67 per dozen delivered to warehouses one week ago. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $6.48 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $6.66 per dozen.

Flock Size 

It is questioned whether hens among complexes and farms depopulated during January to date, have been accounted for. Depletion of large complexes in Missouri and Ohio have occurred this past week. Accurate and updated data should be posted during the current winter outbreaks, given the importance of weekly flock numbers in pricing. Current values for the populations of the producing and total flocks are required by farmers, packers, breakers and buyers.

According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting January 29^th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was down 0.9 million to 295.1 million suggesting that the rate of routine flock depletion and losses from HPAI is higher than the replenishment of flocks through molting and transfer of started pullets. This is consistent with sequential weekly losses. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 4.5 to 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion but depopulation due to HPAI continues to reduce the number of producing hens. Many flocks have been replaced on a rotational basis and routine flock depletion is delayed subject to availability of housing and started pullets.

According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on January 29^th 2025 was 1.0 million lower to 300.5 million hens including a larger than normal proportion of second-cycle birds and started pullets. The difference between total and producing flocks was 5.4 million (rounded). Data for the past four weeks indicated that molted hens are resuming production. Given the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, producers are retaining as many hens as allowed by capacity. At present it is estimated that there are approximately 26 million fewer hens in the total flock that now includes incident cases of HPAI in the fall and winter wave that have emerged from October through to the present. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 8.0 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.

INVENTORY LEVELS

• Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on January 27^th 2024 was 2.315 million lbs. (1,052 metric tons), and 0.1 percent down from 2.317 million lbs. on January 1^st 2025 and unchanged from last week. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December 2024.
• The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on January 24^th 2024 documented a total stock of 18.5 million pounds (8,403 metric tons) of frozen egg products on December 31^st This quantity was down 38.0 percent from the December 31^st 2023 value of 29.8 million pounds. The December 31^st 2024 frozen egg inventory was down 6.9 percent from the previous month ending November 30^th 2024 attributed to presumably higher domestic demand, decreased supply or their combination.
• Compared to December 31^st 2023, the inventory of whites was down 43.8 percent to 1.56 million lbs. on December 31^st
• Compared to December 31^st 2023 yolk inventory was down 60.5 percent to 378,000 lbs. on December 31^st
• A total of 89.5 percent (16.55 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (44.9 percent) and “Unclassified” (44.6 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting of inventory as it appears that the USDA has the makings of a giant omelet!

Shell Inventory

The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective January 28^th 2024 was down 3.1 percent from the previous week, to 1,431,000 million cases. The total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms combined with breaking stock is at a rounded level of 1.43 million cases, (1.48 million last week; Down 45,600 cases).

Four USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -

• The Midwest Region was down 2.7 percent from the previous week to 410,400 cases
• The Southeast Region was up 1.8 percent to 266,400 cases
• The South Central Region was down 9.8 percent to 165,400 cases
• The Northeast Region was up 3.4 percent to 163,700 cases
• The Southwest Region was down 1.6 percent to 100,400 cases.
• The Northwest Region was down 5.2 percent to 39,200 cases

The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,431,000 cases (1,476,600 cases last week), down 3.1 percent, of which 80.1 percent were shell eggs (79.2 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 7.3 percent to 285,400 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 2.0 percent attaining 1,145,600 cases. Differences in inventory among regions are a function of weekly shell-egg demand and inter-regional movement.

The average price for Midwest breaking stock was up 5.0 percent last week and checks were up 8.4 percent in price. The average price for breaking stock and checks combined was equivalent to 45.5 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs, (46.2 percent last week) consistent with the differential in prices for shell eggs (up 8.3 percent) compared to a rise of 5.7 percent for breaking stock and checks combined this past week. The differential of 45.6 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products following losses due to HPAI at the onset of the epornitic. The substantial increase in price for checks and breaking stock demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products confirming the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022 to 2024) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The relative prices for breaking stock and checks are influenced by the actual demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.

On January 27^th 2025 inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 442,800 cases (down 0.8 percent from last week at 446,400 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -

• Specialty category, down a substantial 25.1 percent to 29,100 cases on promotion. (was down 19.6% to 38,800 cases)
• Certified Organic, down 5.1 percent to 65,400 cases. (was down 3.5% to 68,900 cases)
• Cage-Free category, up 2.7 percent to 348,300 cases. (was down 5.0% to 339,200 cases)

Sales of specialty eggs generally increase as conventional (commodity) eggs are priced successively higher, as at present. A small differential in price encourages affluent consumers to move upmarket to organic, enriched and cage-free categories. The reverse is unfortunately true with reduced margins when conventional shell eggs are priced close to or below the cost of production

Consumers purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.

The industry requires a study on all aspects that influence pricing including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI epornitics including the late spring to early summer wave of outbreaks and resumed cases in fall through to the present.

RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES

USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, on January 24^th 2025 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report representing dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -

Advertised Retail Prices representing features as reported January 24^th for the previous week of January 17^th do not reflect actual prevailing national or regional values especially compared with small numbers of stores featuring eggs:-

Large, in cartons generic white: None No comparison ($2.24)

Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.50 Down 5.3% ($2.64)

Wholesale

Midwest in cartons $6.49 Up 7.1% ($6.06)

Large C-F, California in Cartons: $8.97 Unchanged ($8.97)

National loose, (FOB dock): $6.55 Up 11.4% ($5.88)

NYC in cartons to retailer: $7.24 Up 7.7% ($6.72)

Regional in cartons to warehouse reported on January 24^thfor the previous week.

Midwest $6.48 Up 62.0% ($4.00)

Northeast $6.56 Up 62.3% ($4.04)

Southeast $6.62 Up 60.3% ($4.13)

South Central $4.66 Up 60.1% ($4.16)

Combined $6.57 Up 61.0% ($4.08)

USDA CAGE-FREE DATA

According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on January 2^nd 2025, the number of certified organic hens in December was unchanged from November 2024 at 20.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million) representing the differential between replacements and scheduled flock depletions combined, offset by December flock depopulation due to HPAI.

The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in December 2024 was down 5.6 million hens (5.3 percent) from November 2024 to 100.0 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).

According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in December 2024 comprised: -

Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 20.3 million (20.0 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 100.0 million (103.9 million in Q3 2024).

Total U.S. non-caged flock = 120.3 million (123.9 million in Q3 2024).

This total flock size represents 36.9 percent of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 but 39.9 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed complement of 301.5 million in production. Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.

Processed Eggs

For the processing week ending January 25^th 2025 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on January 29^th 2024 was down 0.4 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,317,144 cases, (1,321,941 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.1 percent (52.7 percent processed in-line for the previous week) confirming a slightly higher proportion of in-line eggs processed. Diversion to higher-priced shell markets continues by uncommitted producers. The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.9 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (71.8 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock and checks were higher this past week suggesting moderately increased seasonal demand for liquids. Breaking stock inventory was down 7.3 percent this past week to 285,400 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2024 in-line breakers processed 51.1 percent of eggs broken. With depletion of a large complex in Iowa dedicated to a major liquid processor it is anticipated that higher prices for breaking stock will prevail over the next few weeks and could escalate as in 2022 but with limited prospect of importation.

For the most recent monthly report reflecting December 2024, yield from 5,386,714 cases (7,66,144 cases in November) denoted an increase in demand for liquid and more diversion to shell egg sales over the period December 1^st through December 28^th 2024. Edible yield was 39.6 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 63.2; white, 22.1; yolk, 11.2; dried, 3.4.

All eggs broken during 2024 attained 72.88 million cases, 4.8 percent less than in 2023. Eggs broken in 2025 to date amounted to 5.21 million cases, 8.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024. Weekly changes are attributed to fluctuations in demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty with high credit card interest rates, mortgage repayments or rent and a tendency to purchase only essentials.

PRODUCTION AND PRICES

Breaking Stock

The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 5.0 percent this past week to $3.18 per dozen with a most frequent range of $3.00 to $3.35 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on January 27^th. The price of checks was up 8.4 percent to an average of $3.22 per dozen over the most frequent range of $3.21 to $3.23 per dozen. The market for breaking stock this week diverged from shell egg prices in both timing and value and is expected to increase as a result of flock depletions.

Shell Eggs

The USDA Egg Market News Report dated January 27^th confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large were up 8.3 percent from last week and Medium size was up 30.8 percent from the previous week. A 2.0 percent lower shell egg inventory, with a higher benchmark price, suggests that the market is operating with increased consumer demand and presumably with proportional orders from retail. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses:-

The 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price on January 27^th, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 8.6 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -

1. $7.06 ($6.50), (estimated by proportion): L. $7.04 ($6.48): M. $5.73 ($4.38)

The 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, on January 27^th (with the previous week in parentheses) was unchanged from last week. The high price is attributed to depletion of flocks due to HPAI. In January 2024 the USDA documented a hen population of 9.1 million declining to 7.8 million in July and 4.4 million at the end of December 2024. The market is supplied with higher priced cage-free Midwest and Southwest states.

1. $8.99 ($8.99); L. $8.97 ($8.97); M. $7.60 ($7.60)

Shell-Egg Demand Indicator

The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on January 29^th 2025 was up 1.7 points from the last weekly report to +5.5 with a 3.1 percent decrease in total inventory and a 2.0 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -

COMMENTS

USDA reported the depopulation of 3.9 million laying hens as a result of HPAI this past week. Cases of HPAI were confirmed among backyard and non-WOAH flocks in five states (CT, MA, VT, IL and OR) confirming dissemination by waterfowl undergoing their southward migration along the Pacific, Central, Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways. The frequency of reports in non-commercial premises is a reflection of surveillance intensity. Cases emerged among broiler breeders and growing birds respectively in AR, GA, MO and VA, amounting to 0.2 million this past week. Losses among breeder and growing turkeys in MN, OH, MO and IN amounted to 0.5 million this past week. Given the prevailing risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to intensify structural and operational biosecurity in poultry operations with anticipated exposure influenced by weather patterns and temperature in all four flyways. Incident outbreaks might be anticipated from domestic resident birds and spillover from dairy operations coincident with southward migration that is underway. Canada has experienced outbreaks in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and more recently in Ontario and Quebec.

Approximate losses reported in 2024 include:-

• 40 million egg-producing hens and at least 3 million replacement pullets
• 4 million commercial meat turkeys with breeders
• 0 million broilers with breeders
• 400,000+ commercial and breeder ducks
• 400,000+ backyard and non-WOAH semi-commercial flocks and some game-birds

Backyard flocks allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it relates to the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality and endemnicity.

Updated January 2025 USDA Projection for U.S. Egg Production and Consumption. 

On January16^th 2025 the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued actual values for egg production during 2023 with an updated projection for 2024 and a forecast for 2025. Production, consumption and prices were revised from the previous December 16^th 2024 report.

Projected egg production for 2024 was adjusted downward by 0.3 percent from the December 2024 Report to 7,728 million dozen This will be 1.7 percent less than in 2023 due to progressive depletion of hen flocks as a result of HPAI through December with incident cases occurring during January 2025. The per capita consumption of shell eggs and liquids combined for 2024 will be 272.9 eggs down 6.4 eggs (-2.3 percent) from 2023. The projected average 2024 benchmark New York bulk unit price was raised 121 cents to 303 cents per dozen above 2023.

Subsequent USDA projections will provide greater clarity on the recovery in consumption in an economy that is undergoing deflation in all food categories with the outstanding exception of eggs. The 2023 Midwest in-carton national wholesale price peaked at $5.17 per dozen on January 3^rd 2023 but fell precipitously to a market bottom of $0.78 per dozen on May 8^th 2023. Midwest Large wholesale price was restored during May 2024 and despite substantial declines during late August through September, attained $6.06 per dozen for Midwest Large, in cartons, delivered to DCs on January 17^th 2024. The Midwest wholesale Large value should be compared to the USDA/EIC projection of the combined nest-run December 2024 value of 74.4 cents per dozen for caged white Large, plus a provision for processing, packaging and transport of 60 cents per dozen amounting to $1.34 cents per dozen (rounded).

Restoration in flock size after HPAI depletions in 2022 progressed at a net rate of approximately 0.5 million per week. Placements were limited by the availability of pullet chicks and among some producers by the rate of conversion to alternative housing systems. Restoration of the national flock was compromised by a resurgence of HPAI with 40.0 million layers depleted during 2024 but with replacement averaging 24 million pullets per month. On January1^st the total egg-producing flock was estimated by USDA¹ to be 304 million hens, 22 million or 6.8 percent below the nominal producing flock of 326 million hens before the onset of the ongoing 2022 HPAI epornitic. Unpredictable factors affecting price will include consumer demand influenced by high shelf prices and the extent of anticipated losses during the late fall through early winter migratory season anticipated to end within weeks. Resumption of losses is anticipated in late spring months.

Exports of eggs and products at approximately 2.2 percent of total production over the first eleven months of 2024 did not materially affect the domestic price. Future export volume will be constrained by high domestic prices.

The USDA forecast for 2025 includes production of 7,820 million dozen, up an optimistic 1.2 percent from 2024. Projected consumption of 276 eggs per capita, would be a more realistic 3 eggs or 1.1 percent compared to the December projection of  a 2.9 percent (8 egg) increase over 2024, as documented in the December USDA report. This forecast probably presumes substantial control of HPAI and an adequate supply of replacement chicks and pullets, both unrealistic assumptions. The increase, if it were to transpire would depress the NY Large benchmark price to an average of $2.94 per dozen compared to the 2024 value.

During 2023 shell egg exports attained 89.4 million dozen, up 28.6 percent compared to 2022 when high domestic prices prevailed. Egg products were up 18.2 percent to 20,814 metric tons compared to 2022.

According to USDA data over the first eleven months of 2024, 75.2 million dozen shell-eggs were exported valued at $176 million. Volume was 7.8 percent lower but value was 19.0 percent higher compared to the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was $2.34 per dozen, up 29.2 from the equivalent months in 2023.

Over the first eleven months of 2024, 23,947 metric tons of egg products were exported valued at $106 million. Volume and value were respectively 15.0 and 12.3 percent lower compared with the corresponding months in 2023. Unit value was 31.9 percent higher to $4,619 per metric ton on average for all product forms.

Updated January 2024 USDA data² is shown in the table below:-

*Data influenced by HPAI losses. Recovery over entire 2025 considered unrealistic

Sources:  1. USDA Chickens and Eggs  released January 21^st 2025

                2. Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook released January 16^th 2025

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
• December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.

• The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
• November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on September 30^th 2024, documented storage of corn and soybeans, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of the two major ingredients as Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Energy, Economy and determined by USD-NASS, relevant to the cost of poultry production were:-

“Old crop corn stocks on hand as of September 1^st 2024 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Of the total corn stocks, 780 million bushels (44 percent were stored on farms), up 29 percent from last year”. This was down from 61 percent three months ago indicating a sell-off despite declining prices to realize income and make room for the 2024 harvest. “Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, were up 30 percent from a year ago. The June-August 2024 indicated disappearance was 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same period a year earlier”.

“Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1^st 2024 totaled 342 million bushels, up 29 percent from September 1^st 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 111 million bushels,  (32 percent) up 54 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 231 million bushels, were up 20 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2024 totaled 628 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

The weekly Economy, Commodity and Energy Report posted each week and a summary of the WASDE #652 released on September 12^th is retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released October 31^st posted September prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

September Prices Received Index, down 2.9 percent from August

 The USDA ERS summarized prices as follows:-“The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 122.6, decreased 2.9 percent from August and 7.1 percent from September 2022. At 113.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.2 percent from last month and 11 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.1, decreased 0.9 percent from August, and 2.6 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and lettuce during September, but higher prices for broilers, milk, grapes, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased marketing of cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, dry beans, and apples”.

September Prices Paid Index, Up 0.1 Percent from August

“The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from August 2023 but unchanged from September 2022. Higher prices in September for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feed grains, complete feeds, concentrates, and hay & forages”.

Corn farmers received $5.21 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $5.73 per bushel in August 2023, down 9.1 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $7.09 per bushel

Soybean farmers received $13.20 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $14.10 per bushel in August 2023, down 6.8 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $14.20 per bushel

The September 2023 egg price received by farmers was $ 1.22 per dozen for table eggs lower than $1.35 per dozen in August 2023 and compared to $2.65 per dozen in September 2022. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.

The June 30^th 2023 Planted Acreage report documented the respective areas planted to corn and soybeans, the two commodities of relevance to the poultry industry. The USDA confirmed:-

Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 94.1 million acres, up six percent or 5.52 million acres from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 86.3 million acres, is up nine percent from last year.

Soybean-planted area for 2023 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down five percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 21 of the 29 estimating States.

Together with the Grain Stocks report the Planted Acreage data moved the market for corn and soybeans by about five percent but in contrasting directions.

For corn the acreage was above the most optimistic projection although offset by a lower stock. At 14H30 on the CME after the release of the two USDA reports, corn was down 25 cents per bushel to 556 cents for July delivery and for September, corn was down 34 cents per bushel to 489 cents.

For soybeans the reduced acreage and consequently lower ending stocks was bullish for the new crop. At 14H30 CME soybeans were up 75 cents per bushel to 1,558 cents for July delivery and for September the soybean price was up 73 cents per bushel to 1,354 cents.

According to USDA economists, retail egg prices increased by 8.5 percent in January 2023, approximately 70.1 percent above January 2022.  The USDA-ERS now predicts that egg prices will increase by 37.8 percent in 2023 but with a wide range of 18.3 to 62.3 percent attributed to volatility.  Concurrently the USDA-ERS predicted a 4.7 percent increase in the price of meats, 7.2 percent for dairy products and 12.8 percent for cereals and bakery products.

Wholesale farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 with a wide prediction interval of -32.6 to 76.1 percent.  Egg prices are extremely volatile, complicating reliable predictions.

EGG-NEWS will monitor weekly USDA wholesale prices by region and average retail prices to document retail margins.