Egg Industry Statistics and Reports


REVIEW OF JANUARY 2025 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

02/14/2025

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

 

JANUARY HIGHLIGHTS

  • January 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 582 cents per dozen, up 158 cents per dozen or 37.2 percent from the December 2024 value of 424 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $3.23 and $1.72 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
  • Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts that accentuates the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 15 million in 23 complexes year to date.
  • January 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was up 2.3 percent from December 2024 to 76.1 cents per dozen. The January average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be up 2.0 percent to  95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
  • January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 505.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 349.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
  • January 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 713.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 672.6 cents per dozen in December 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
  • The December 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 3.7 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 307.6 million compared to the revised November 2024 value of 311.3 million and 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
  • December 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.2 million was down 0.2 million chicks from November 2024.
  • December 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 35.1 percent from November to 439,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.8 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 97 percent of shell egg exports of 278,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico collectively represented 71 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 161,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

                                

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR JANUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA January 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on February 10th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous January 2025 release reflecting December 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

 

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

                                                                                   

PARAMETER

      JANUARY 2025

     DECEMBER 2024

Table-strain eggs in incubators

48.4 million        (Jan.)

 50.1 million   (Dec.)

Pullet chicks hatched

24.2 million        (Dec.)

 24.4 million   (Nov.)

Pullets to be housed 5 months after hatch

21.7 million        (May.)

 21.7* million  (Apr.)

EIC 2025 December 1st U.S. total flock projection

317.3 million      (Jan.)

311.7 million  (Actual)

National Flock in farms over 30,000 

291.9 million      (Dec.)

295.6 million  (Nov.)

National egg-producing flock 

307.6 million      (Dec.)

311.3 million  (Nov.)

Cage-free flock excluding organic

Cage-free organic flock

101.0  million     (Jan.)

  20.3  million     (Jan.)

100.0 million   (Dec.)

  20.3 million   (Dec.)

Proportion of flocks in molt or post-molt

     11.6%             (Jan.)

   12.4%            (Dec.)

Total of hens in National flock, 1st cycle (estimate)

 271.9 million    (Dec.)

 272.7 million  (Nov.)

*USDA Revised

 


 

Total U.S. Eggs produced (billion)

   7.83  January 2025

  7.69* December 2024

Total Cage-Free hens in production

 Proportion of organic population

  121.3million   (Jan.)

   16.7%  Organic

120.3 million   (Dec.)

 16.9% Organic

“Top-5” States hen population (USDA)1

   149.1 million  (Dec.)

  153.8 million (Nov.)

  • Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

 

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

 

STATE

  DECEMBER1

      2024

 NOVEMBER

       2024

 Iowa

    14.3%

      14.9%

Indiana

    12.6%

      12.4%

Ohio

    14.4%

      14.2%

Pennsylvania

      8.2%

        8.1%

Texas (estimate)

      7.2% ?

        7.0%?

California

      1.5%

        2.3%

  1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.8% January 2025.    82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

 

Revised per capita

Egg consumption 2020

285.6 (down 7.8 eggs from 2019)

Revised per capita

Egg consumption 2021

282.5 (down 3.1 eggs from 2020)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2022

280.5 (down 2.0 eggs from 2021 due to HPAI)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2023

279.3 (down 1.2 eggs from 2022)

Projected per capita

Forecast per capita

Egg consumption 2024

Egg consumption 2025

272.9 ( down 6.4 eggs from 2023) attributed to HPAI losses)*

 

275.9 (up 3.0 eggs from 2024) forecast regarded as aspirational, was 281.7 last month

 

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook January 16th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

 

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF January 2025:

Shell Eggs

1.57 million cases down 14.0 percent from December 2024

Frozen Egg

Products

 

476,768 case equivalents, down 6.8 percent from December 2024

Dried Egg

Products

Not disclosed since March 2020 following market disruption due

To COVID.  Moderate levels of inventory are assumed.

 

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   December  2024, 6.34     November  2024,  6.60*               

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2023 (million cases)

  78.7

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2023: number of cases produced (million)

262.9

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2023: proportion of total eggs broken

29.9%

(30.8% 2022)

 

 

 

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2024 (million cases)

  79.1

JAN.-DEC.

Cumulative 2024: number of cases produced (million)

258.4

JAN.-DEC.

Cumulative 2024: proportion of total eggs broken

30.8%

JAN.-Dec.

 

EXPORTS DECEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

 

Parameter

Quantity Exported

Exports:

           2024

Shell Eggs (thousand cases)

NOV.  181   DEC.  278

Products (thousand case equivalents)

NOV.  144   DEC.  161

TOTAL (thousand case equivalents)*

NOV.  325   DEC.  439


                                                                                                                               

*Representing 2.0 percent of National production in December 2024 (1.3% shell, 0.7% products).                    

 

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES1 FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

 

Parameter

   JANUARY 2025

   DECEMBER 2024

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

76.1 c/doz

74.4 c/doz

Low

73.5c/doz      (MW)

72.4 c/doz  (MW)

High

78.1 c/doz     (NE)

76.0 c/doz   (NE)

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

       

 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

 

 

JANUARY 2025

  DECEMBER 2024

Feed

    36.2 c/doz

     34.7c/doz

Pullet depreciation

    12.0 c/doz

     11.7c/doz

Labor (estimate) plus

 

 

Housing (estimate) plus

     27.9c/doz

     28.0c/doz

Miscellaneous and other (adjusted May 2023)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting JANUARY 2025:-

                                                         582.0 cents per dozen1- 76.1 cents per dozen = 505.9 cents per dozen         (December 2024 comparison:   424.0 cents per dozen – 74.4 cents per dozen  = 349.6 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

          

 

 

 

     JANUARY 2025

    DECEMBER 2024

USDA

Ex-farm Price (Large, White)

     582.0 c/doz    (Jan.)

   424.0c/doz        (Dec.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center

     641.0 c/doz    (Jan.)

   450.8c/doz        (Dec.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

     646.0 c/doz    (Jan.)

   455.8 c/doz       (Dec.)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail1  National

     415.0 c/doz    (Dec.)

   365.0 c/doz       (Nov.)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail1  Midwest

     416.0 c/doz    (Dec.)

   394.0 c/doz       (Nov.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!


 

 

JANUARY 2025

DECEMBER  2024

U.S. Av Feed Cost per ton

       $233.04

    $220.92

Low Cost – Midwest

       $209.87

    $200.88

High Cost – West

       $269.74

    $256.85

Differential 

       $  59.87

    $  55.96

 

Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$4.71  JANUARY 2025

$4.56  December 2024

Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$4.10  JANUARY 2025

$4.02  December 2024

 

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

 

Parameter

   JANUARY 2025

  DECEMBER 2024

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

      95.3 c/doz

     93.4  c/doz

Low

      90.7c/doz  (MW)

       89.4   c/doz  (MW)

High

    102.7 c/doz (West)

   102.0   c/doz  (West)

* USDA Revised

 

 

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

 

 

JANUARY 2025

  DECEMBER 2024

Feed

    40.7 c/doz

   40.1 c/doz

Pullet depreciation

    15.8 c/doz

   15.5 c/doz

Labor (estimate) plus

 

 

Housing (estimate) plus

    37.8c/doz

    37.8 c/doz

Miscellaneous and other

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for JANUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     809.0 cents per dozen1- 95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen

December  2024      766.0 cents per dozen -  93.4 cents per dozen =  672.6 cents per dozen  

 

 

 

 

    JANUARY 2025

 DECEMBER 2024

USDA

USDA Average Ex-farm Price1

     170 c/doz    (Jan.)

  170 c/doz  (Dec.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center2

     809 c/doz    (Jan.)

  766 c/doz  (Dec.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

     814 c/doz    (Jan.)

  772 c/doz  (Dec.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail3  C-F Brown

Dept. Com. Retail3  C-F White

 

     289 c/doz    (Jan.)

     449 c/doz    (Jan.)

  290 c/doz  (Dec.)

  355 c/doz  (Dec.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail3  Organic  

Dept. Com. Retail3  Pasture

      547 c/doz   (Jan.)

      668 c/doz   (Jan.)

 

  536 c/doz  (Dec.)

  644 c/doz  (Dec.)


1. Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

  1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
  2. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

 

 

 

 

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$5.64 JANUARY 2025

$5.54 December 2024

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$4.94 JANUARY 2025 

$4.84 December 2024

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

 

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.


 

USDA-WASDE REPORT #657, February 11th 2025

02/11/2025

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the February 11th World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #657, projecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were predictably little changed from from the January 2025 edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted,  history of recent crops and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and exports.

 

The February 11th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from 82.9 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from 86.1 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

 

The February WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 179.3 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was 50.3 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

 

The February USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was down 11.4 percent from December 2024 to 1,540 million bushels. The February USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 19.2 percent to 380 million bushels.

 

The February 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2024-2025 market year at an average of 435 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,010 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. Projected commodity prices suggest lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins or in some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

 

Projections for world output included in the February 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America. Hostilities are ongoing in Ukraine following extensive destruction of agricultural infrastructure by the Russian Federation. Production and hence exports of wheat, corn and sunflower from Ukraine will be reduced compared to pre-war averages.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the current market year despite fiscal stimulus with a projected recovery of the Nation’s economy influencing consumer demand for food and fuel.

 

The USDA considers world weather patterns in developing projections including the effect of the transition to a La Nina event during the third quarter of 2024.

 

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected a crop of 14,867 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,775 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was unchanged from 2024 at 1,390 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were reduced to 2,450 million bushels, based on recent orders, and shipments to China and taking into account the anticipated lower availability of coarse grains from Eastern Europe and the output of producing nations in South America. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,540 million bushels.

 

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the February WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 435 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11th after the noon release of the WASDE the CME spot price for corn was 483 cents per bushel, up 6.1 percent from the quotation on December 10th and up 11.0 percent from the February USDA projection.

 

December 2025 WASDE #657 Projections For The 2025 Corn Harvest:

 

Harvest Area

82.9 m acres

(90.6 m. acres planted), harvest corresponding to 91.5% of acres planted)

 

Yield

179.3 bushels per acre

(Updated from 183.8 bushels per acre in the December WASDE reflecting the 2024 crop)

 

Beginning Stocks

 

  1,763 m. bushels

 

 

Production

 

14,867 m. bushels

 

 

Imports

 

       25 m. bushels

 

 

Total Supply

 

16,655 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

 

Feed & Residual

 

  5,775 m. bushels

 

34.7%

 

Food & Seed

 

  1,390 m bushels

 

 8.4%

 

Ethanol & Byproducts

 

  5,500 m. bushels

 

33.0%

 

Domestic Use

 

12,666 m. bushels

 

76.1%

 

Exports

 

  2,450 m. bushels

 

14.7%

 

Ending Stocks

 

  1,540 m. bushels

                               

                                 9.2%

 

1 metric ton = 39.368 bushels

Average Farm Price: 435 cents per bushel.

 

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, the 2025 estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the February WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,366 million bushels, based on a yield of 50.7 bushels per acre from 86.1 million acres harvested. Crush volume was held from the December WASDE report at 2,410 million bushels despite increased industry capacity and a projected 0.4 percent increase in the output of soybean meal. Projected exports were maintained at 1,825 million bushels despite the prospect of reduced imports by China. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 380 million bushels, down 19.1 prtcent from the December WASDE report.

 

There is uncertainty over orders from China for the current market year. This is attributed to competition from Brazil and an assumption of lower requirements for animal feed due to restrictions on pork production by the Central Government of China. The response of China with respect to announced import and punitive tariffs that are predicted to have a negative impact with respect to volume exported and hence lower domestic U.S. prices. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

 

The USDA WASDE February projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025  harvest was 1,010 cents per bushel. At 16H00 EST on February 11th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,044 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent compared to the December 10th quotation and 3.3 percent above the February USDA projection.

 

February 2025 WASDE #657 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

 

Harvest Area

86.1 m acres

87.1 m. acres planted. Harvest corresponding to 98.9% of planted acreage)

 

Yield

50.7 bushels per acre

(Down from 51.7 bushel/acre attained in 2024)

 

Beginning Stocks

 

    342 m. bushels

 

 

Production

 

  4,336 m. bushels

 

 

Imports

 

       20 m. bushels

 

 

Total Supply

 

  4,729 m. bushels

Proportion of Supply

 

Crush Volume

 

  2,410 m. bushels

 

51.0%

 

Exports

 

  1,825 m. bushels

 

38.6%

 

Seed

 

       78 m. bushels

 

 1.7%

 

Residual

 

        36 m. bushels

 

 0.7%

 

Total Use

 

  4,349 m. bushels

 

92.0%

 

Ending Stocks

 

     380 m. bushels

                                

                                  8.0%

 

1 metric ton = 36.74 bushels

Average Farm Price: 1,010 cents per bushel

 

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 56.95 million tons, up 0.4 percent from the 2024 crop but inconsistent with the unchanged 2,410 million bushel projected soybean crush volume. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 40,225 million tons. Exports were estimated at 17.40 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex plant price of soybean meal at $310 in the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an unchanged ending stock of 450,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

 

At market close on February 11th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $297 per ton, down 1.4 percent compared to the December 10th CME quotation and 4.2 percent lower than the December WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 

 February 2025  WASDE #657 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

Beginning Stocks

     453

Production

56,947

Imports

     675

Total Supply

58,075

Domestic Use

40,225

Exports

17,400

Total Use

57,625

Ending Stocks

     450

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $310 per ton

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

 

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

 

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

 

WORLD SITUATION

 

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the February 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

 

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.

 

Major global trade changes for 2024/25 include smaller projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. Corn imports are cut for China but raised for Vietnam and Chile. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced reflecting a reduction for China. Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3.0 million.”

 

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields”.

 

“Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.”

 

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

Factor: Million m. tons

Coarse Grains

Oilseeds

Output

  1,499*

683

Supply

1,846

815

World Trade

          232

207

Use

1,523

558

Ending Stocks

          323

      147


*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)


 

USDA Data On Cage-Free Production For January 2025

02/10/2025

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

 

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering January 2025, released on February 3rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.3 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from December 2024. Depopulation was carried out through the fourth quarter of 2024 and through 2025 as a result of HPAI. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 1.0 million hens or 1.0 percent from December 2024 to 101.0 million, despite documented extensive flock depopulation during the month.

 

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in January 2025 was down 0.4 percent compared to December 2024 with a questionably high average weekly production of 83.5 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 0.5 percent in January 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.2 percent, down from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand. Since the proportion of pullets according to housing type is not indicated in the monthly USDA Chickens and Eggs report, it is not possible to validate the relative sizes of flocks producing under the certified organic label or other categories. There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

 

Flock Size Average

(million hens)

   January

      2025

Average

Q4-2024

Average

Q3- 2024

Average

Q2 –

2024

Average

Q1 –

2024

Average

Q4-

2023

Certified Organic

20.3

   20.5

20.0

 18.8

18.3

18.7

Cage-Free Hens

    101.0

   104.5

  103.9

  101.0

 105.7

 106.4

Total Non-Caged

    121.3

   125.0

  123.9

  119.8

 124.0

 125.1

 

Average Weekly Production (cases)

   December

       2024                   

       January

          2025

Certified Organic @ 83.8% hen/day

    331,589

   330,252      +0.4%

Cage-Free @ 82.6% hen/day

 1,605,843

1,613,998      +0.5%

Total Non-Caged @ 82.8% hen/day

 1,937,432

1,944,250     +0.4%   

            

 

 

Average Nest Run Contract Price Cage-Free Brown

$1.70/doz.   (Unchanged since July 2024)

January 2025 Range:

$1.35 to $2.35/doz. (unchanged since March 2023)

FOB Negotiated January price, grade-ready quality, loose nest-run. Price range $7.03 to $7.50 per dozen

Average January 2025 Value of $7.24/doz.

($5.91/doz. December 2024)     

 

Average January 2025 advertised promotional National Retail Price   C-F, Large Brown

$2.88/doz. January 2025 (5 regions)

(was $2.90/doz. in December 2024)

USDA Based on 5 Regions, 133 stores

 Excluding SW, AK and HI. (was 1,027 stores offering promotions)

High: $4.49/doz. (NW. 21 stores)

Low:  $2.50/doz. (SC, SE, MW. Only 94 stores in total)

 

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for January 2025 averaged $7.24 per dozen, up 21.5 percent from $5.91 per dozen in December 2024, reflecting an imbalance of demand relative to supply. The January 20245 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over five regions (excluding SW, AK. and HI.) was $2.88 per dozen, apparently down 2 cents per dozen from December 2024 based on 133 stores. This compares with 1,027 stores in December and reflects fewer promotions as the year commenced reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI that restricted supply.

 

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.24 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $7.84 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average five-region advertised retail price of $2.88 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 172.4 percent (-124.5 percent last month) for promotions offered by stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.


 

Egg Month

01/14/2025

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

 

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

 

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

  • December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
  • Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
  • December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
  • December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
  • December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.
  • The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
  • November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
  • November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

 

 

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

 

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

 

PARAMETER

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

Table-strain eggs in incubators

49.3 million (Nov.)

 50.1 million (Dec.)

Pullet chicks hatched

27.5 million (Oct.)

 24.4 million (Nov.)

Pullets to be housed 5 months after hatch

24.6* million (Mar.)

 21.8 million (Apr.)

EIC 2023 December 1st U.S. total flock projection

310.9*million (Dec.)

311.7 million (Actual)

National Flock in farms over 30,000 

296.4 million (Oct.)

295.6 million (Nov.)

National egg-producing flock 

311.7 million (Oct.)

311.3 million (Nov.)

Cage-free flock excluding organic

Cage-free organic flock

105.6 million (Nov.)

20.3 million (Nov.)

100.0 million (Dec.)

20.3 million (Dec.)

Proportion of flocks in molt or post-molt

12.6%* (Nov.)

12.4% (Dec.)

Total of hens in National flock, 1st cycle (estimate)

 272.4 million* (Oct.)

 272.7 million (Nov.)

*USDA Revised


Total U.S. Eggs produced (billion)

7.91* November 2024

7.68 December 2024

Total Cage-Free hens in production

 Proportion of organic population

125.9 million (Nov.)

16.8%* Organic

120.3 million (Dec.)

16.9% Organic

“Top-5” States hen population (USDA)1

153.7* million (Oct.)

153.8 million (Sept.)

  • Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

 

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 20241

 

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

STATE

OCTOBER1

2024

 NOVEMBER

2024

 Iowa

14.4%

14.9%

Indiana

12.2%

12.4%

Ohio

14.4%

14.2%

Pennsylvania

8.0%

8.1%

Texas (estimate)

7.0% ?

7.0%?

California

2.7%

2.3%

  1. Values rounded to 0.1%

 

 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

Revised per capita

Egg consumption 2020

285.6 (down 7.8 eggs from 2019)

Revised per capita

Egg consumption 2021

282.5 (down 3.1 eggs from 2020)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2022

280.5 (down 2.0 eggs from 2021 due to HPAI)

Actual per capita

Egg consumption 2023

279.3 (down 1.2 eggs from 2022)

Projected per capita

Forecast per capita

Egg consumption 2024

Egg consumption 2025

273.5 ( down 5.8 eggs from 2023) attributed to HPAI losses)*

281.7 (up 8.2 eggs from 2024) forecast regarded as aspirational

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

Shell Eggs

1.59 million cases down 3.5 percent from November 2024

Frozen Egg

Products

611,613 case equivalents, down 4.0 percent from November 2024

Dried Egg

Products

Not disclosed since March 2020 following market disruption due

To COVID. Moderate levels of inventory are assumed.

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2023 (million cases)

78.7

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2023: number of cases produced (million)

262.9

JAN. TO DEC.

Cumulative 2023: proportion of total eggs broken

29.9%

(30.8% 2022)

     

Cumulative eggs broken under FSIS inspection 2024 (million cases)

73.2

JAN.-NOV.

Cumulative 2024: number of cases produced (million)

236.6

JAN.-NOV.

Cumulative 2024: proportion of total eggs broken

30.9%

JAN.-NOV.

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

Parameter

Quantity Exported

Exports:

2024

Shell Eggs (thousand cases)

OCT. 223 NOV. 181

Products (thousand case equivalents)

OCT. 181 NOV. 144

TOTAL (thousand case equivalents)*

OCT. 404 NOV. 325

 

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES1 FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Parameter

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

74.0 c/doz

74.4 c/doz*

Low

72.0c/doz (MW)

72.4 c/doz (MW)

High

75.6 c/doz (NE)

76.0 c/doz (NE)

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

 

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

Feed

34.4 c/doz

34.7c/doz

Pullet depreciation

11.7 c/doz

11.7c/doz

Labor (estimate) plus

   

Housing (estimate) plus

27.9c/doz

28.0c/doz

Miscellaneous and other (adjusted May 2023)

   

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen1- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

 

   

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

USDA

Ex-farm Price (Large, White)

364.0 c/doz (Nov.)

424.0c/doz (Dec.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center

425.3 c/doz (Nov.)

450.8c/doz (Dec.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

430.3 c/doz (Nov.)

455.8 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail National

337.0 c/doz (Oct.)

365.0 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Dept. Commerce Retail Midwest

317.0 c/doz (Oct.)

394.0 c/doz (Nov.)


 

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

U.S. Av Feed Cost per ton

$220.86

$220.92

Low Cost – Midwest

$198.88

$200.88

High Cost – West

$264.35

$256.85

Differential 

$ 65.47

$ 55.96

 

Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$4.55 November 2024

$4.56 December 2024

Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$4.00 November 2024

$4.02 December 2024

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Parameter

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER 2024

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

93.4 c/doz

93.4 c/doz

Low

89.0c/doz* (MW)

 89.4 c/doz (MW)

High

102.1 c/doz (West)

102.0 c/doz (West)

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

 

NOVEMBER 2024

DECEMBER2024

Feed

40.1 c/doz

40.1 c/doz

Pullet depreciation

15.5 c/doz

15.5 c/doz

Labor (estimate) plus

   

Housing (estimate) plus

37.8c/doz

37.8 c/doz

Miscellaneous and other

   

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen1- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

   

NOVEMBER 2024

 DECEMBER 2024

USDA

Average Ex-farm Price1

170 c/doz (Nov.)

170 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Warehouse/Dist. Center2

455 c/doz (Nov.)

766 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Store delivered (estimate)

460 c/doz (Nov.)

772 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail3 C-F Brown

Dept. Com. Retail3 C-F White

290 c/doz (Nov.)

323 c/doz (Nov.)

290 c/doz (Dec.)

355 c/doz (Dec.)

 

Dept. Com. Retail Organic

Dept. Com. Retail Pasture

610 c/doz (Nov.)

644 c/doz (Nov.)

536 c/doz (Dec.)

644 c/doz (Dec.)


  1. Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
  2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
  3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

 


 

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 19 Weeks

$5.54 November 2024

$5.54 December 2024

Cage-Free* Pullet Cost 16 Weeks

$4.84 November 2024

$4.84 December 2024

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.


 

USDA Grain Stocks Report

09/30/2024

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks Report released on September 30th 2024, documented storage of corn and soybeans, classified according to on-site and remote facilities including elevators and commercial installations. Quantities of the two major ingredients as Prices and commentary are incorporated in the Weekly Energy, Economy and determined by USD-NASS, relevant to the cost of poultry production were:-

 

“Old crop corn stocks on hand as of September 1st 2024 totaled 1.76 billion bushels, up 29 percent from September 1st 2023. Of the total corn stocks, 780 million bushels (44 percent were stored on farms), up 29 percent from last year”. This was down from 61 percent three months ago indicating a sell-off despite declining prices to realize income and make room for the 2024 harvest. “Off-farm stocks, at 980 million bushels, were up 30 percent from a year ago. The June-August 2024 indicated disappearance was 3.24 billion bushels, compared with 2.74 billion bushels during the same period a year earlier”.

 

“Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1st 2024 totaled 342 million bushels, up 29 percent from September 1st 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 111 million bushels,  (32 percent) up 54 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 231 million bushels, were up 20 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June-August 2024 totaled 628 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier”.

 

The weekly Economy, Commodity and Energy Report posted each week and a summary of the WASDE #652 released on September 12th is retrievable under the STATISTICS tab.

 


 

USDA Agricultural Prices Report

11/17/2023

THE USDA Agricultural Prices Report released October 31st posted September prices for agricultural commodities and expenditures.

 

September Prices Received Index, down 2.9 percent from August

 

 The USDA ERS summarized prices as follows:-“The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 122.6, decreased 2.9 percent from August and 7.1 percent from September 2022. At 113.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.2 percent from last month and 11 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.1, decreased 0.9 percent from August, and 2.6 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and lettuce during September, but higher prices for broilers, milk, grapes, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased marketing of cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, dry beans, and apples”.

September Prices Paid Index, Up 0.1 Percent from August

 

“The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from August 2023 but unchanged from September 2022. Higher prices in September for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feed grains, complete feeds, concentrates, and hay & forages”.

 

Corn farmers received $5.21 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $5.73 per bushel in August 2023, down 9.1 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $7.09 per bushel

 

Soybean farmers received $13.20 per bushel in September 2023 compared to $14.10 per bushel in August 2023, down 6.8 percent. The price received in September 2022 was $14.20 per bushel

 

The September 2023 egg price received by farmers was $ 1.22 per dozen for table eggs lower than $1.35 per dozen in August 2023 and compared to $2.65 per dozen in September 2022. The sharp year-on-year increase is attributed to disequilibrium between supply and demand. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in depletion of 44 million hens with a reduction of 20 million producing birds in the supply flock on average from mid 2022 onwards. This situation was coupled with increased demand as consumers increased purchases of eggs representing a competitively priced protein source in an inflationary environment.


 

Planted Acreage Report

06/30/2023

The June 30th 2023 Planted Acreage report documented the respective areas planted to corn and soybeans, the two commodities of relevance to the poultry industry. The USDA confirmed:-

 

Corn-planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 94.1 million acres, up six percent or 5.52 million acres from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 86.3 million acres, is up nine percent from last year.

 

Soybean-planted area for 2023 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down five percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 21 of the 29 estimating States.

 

Together with the Grain Stocks report the Planted Acreage data moved the market for corn and soybeans by about five percent but in contrasting directions.

 

For corn the acreage was above the most optimistic projection although offset by a lower stock. At 14H30 on the CME after the release of the two USDA reports, corn was down 25 cents per bushel to 556 cents for July delivery and for September, corn was down 34 cents per bushel to 489 cents.

 

For soybeans the reduced acreage and consequently lower ending stocks was bullish for the new crop. At 14H30 CME soybeans were up 75 cents per bushel to 1,558 cents for July delivery and for September the soybean price was up 73 cents per bushel to 1,354 cents.


 

USDA-ERS Predicts Egg Prices for 2023

02/27/2023

According to USDA economists, retail egg prices increased by 8.5 percent in January 2023, approximately 70.1 percent above January 2022.  The USDA-ERS now predicts that egg prices will increase by 37.8 percent in 2023 but with a wide range of 18.3 to 62.3 percent attributed to volatility.  Concurrently the USDA-ERS predicted a 4.7 percent increase in the price of meats, 7.2 percent for dairy products and 12.8 percent for cereals and bakery products.

 

Wholesale farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 with a wide prediction interval of -32.6 to 76.1 percent.  Egg prices are extremely volatile, complicating reliable predictions.

 

EGG-NEWS will monitor weekly USDA wholesale prices by region and average retail prices to document retail margins.


 












































































































































































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