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REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

Commencing in January 2024 the EIC justifiably separated the production costs and unit revenue values for eggs derived from caged and cage-free flocks. Accordingly, EGG-NEWS will continue to summarize data but will consolidate production and export statistics for the U.S. egg industry as a total and compare financial data for the two shell-egg categories.

SEPTEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• September 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 240 cents per dozen, down 93 cents per dozen or 27.9 percent from the August 2024 value of 333 cents per dozen. For comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen with a range of 323 cents per dozen in January down to a low of 57 cents in May. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza will not be a consideration until the fall 2024 migration of waterfowl resumes. Close to 13 million hens and 2.5 million pullets were depopulated during the fourth quarter of 2023 among five states with heavy losses in California. Approximately 17 million hens and 1.5 million pullets have been depleted year to date.
• September 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was up 1.2 cents per dozen to 74.6 cents per dozen compared to the USDA revised August 2024 value of 73.4 cents per dozen, mainly attributable to a 6.6 percent higher average feed cost per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run cost to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• September 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 165.4 cents per dozen compared to a revised positive margin of 258.0 cents per dozen in August 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022. This differential was mainly due to higher prices following HPAI-depletion of flocks. It is emphasized that the U.S. benchmark price reflects nest-run conventional eggs.

• The August 2024 national flock in production (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.6 million hens (rounded) to 289.3 compared to the revised July 2024 value of 288.4 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in August together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• August 2024 pullet chick hatch of 28.7 million was up 0.7 percent or 0.2 million chicks from July 2024.
• August 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 2.5 percent from July 2024 to 445,500 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.9 million hens. The moderate increase was due to higher imports of shell eggs by Canada and egg products by Caribbean, South American and E.U nations based on need and price.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR SEPTEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA September 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on October 9^th 2024 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous August 9^th 2024 release reflecting September 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

 * Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 94.9 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 82.3% September 2024. 82.0*% August 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook September 18^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) August 2024, 7.03 July 2024, 6.80*

EXPORTS AUGUST 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 2.1 percent of National production in AUGUST 2024 (1.8 percent in July 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting SEPTEMBER 2024:-

240.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.6 cents per dozen =165.4 cents per dozen (August 2024 comparison: 204.0 cents per dozen - 75.0 cents per dozen = 258.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting SEPTEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 208 cents per dozen¹- 94.1 cents per dozen = 113.9 cents per dozen

August 2024 440 cents per dozen – 92.7 cents per dozen = 347.3 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

COMMENTARY ON SEPTEMBER 2024 STATISTICS AND COSTS

The USDA reports data for five regions, respectively comprising the Northeast, Southeast (Mid-Atlantic), South Central, Midwest, and West (NW and California combined or deleted in some tables).

From January 2024 three Pacific Coast states were combined as the West Region. Southwest was excluded to maintain confidentiality while providing representative U.S. data. Costs include fixed components (interest, depreciation and overhead) and variable components (feed, pullet depreciation, labor) recalculated in May 2023 by the EIC based on surveys. An adjustment factor reflecting transport was introduced in February 2024. Some USDA data reflecting retail prices, pullet hatch, exports and flock numbers is delayed by a month

PRODUCTION DATA FOR SEPTEMBER 2024 COMBINING CAGED AND CAGE-FREE FLOCKS

• According to USDA, the estimated average complement of U.S. hens in flocks over 30,000 during August 2024 amounted to 289.3 million, reflecting a net 0.6 million hen (0.2 percent) increase in flock size during the month. Data for 2024 to date reflects the previously delayed adjustments for depopulations during the fourth quarter of 2023 and thereafter. Routine depletion was offset by pullet replacements, second cycle hens and retained flocks. The average total U.S. flock including hens in molt on all farms counted by the USDA amounted to 305.0 million in August 2024. The average end-of-year flock sizes over the past five years respectively were:- 2019, (341.6 million); 2020, (325.5 million); 2021, (331.6 million); 2022, (310.0 million) and 2023, (311.4 million). The December 1^st 2024 flock was projected to be a high 321.6 million hens, down from an unrealistic projection of 324.2 million hens in the August report, applying the EIC model. With replacements, molting and delayed depopulation it is estimated that the national flock now comprises 17 million fewer hens than the value of 326 million before the advent of the H5N1 HPAI epornitic in 2022. In the absence of a vaccine only effective biosecurity will help protect flocks going forward.

• Pullet chick hatch attained 28.7 million in August 2024, up 0.1 million from an adjusted July 2024 value. During the 2^nd Quarter of 2024 egg prices rose above the seasonal average possibly influencing demand for chicks together with the need to compensate for depopulated pullet and hen flocks.

• The total in-molt and post-molt population of hens in the 5-Regions monitored by the USDA rose to 11.6 percent of the national flock in September 2024, compared to a revised 11.7 percent for the previous month. This suggests retention of old flocks limited only by available housing to capitalize on prevailing prices. Annual averages for molt and post-molt combined were 12.8 percent in 2023; 14.0 percent in 2022 and 14.4 percent in 2021. The historical high value of 23.8 percent in 2016 was due to the loss of hens during the 2015 HPAI epornitic. This situation will not be revisited in 2024.

• During the fourth quarter of 2023 the average monthly transfer of pullets to laying houses was 25.2 million compared to 24.9 million in the third quarter. Revised data anticipate the transfer of 23.1 million pullets per month during the first quarter and 22.0 million in the second quarter of 2024. Pullet transfer in the 3^rd and 4^th Quarters will average 26.0 million per month.

• The projected hatchery supply flock (parent generation hens) peaked at 3.1 million in June 2022. The previous high parent-flock complement of 3.1 million hens in production was in June 2015, coinciding with the end of the HPAI epornitic in that year. Parent hens thereafter declined to a low of 2.5 million during the fourth quarter of 2016. During 2023 the flock size for parent hens averaged 2.4 million over the fourth quarter of 2023 and is projected at 2.5 million during the 3^rd and 4^th quarters of 2024 and the 1^st quarter of 2025. The size of the parent flock is unlikely to be revised based on pullet chick orders influenced by the demand to replace depopulated pullets and hens and in response to possible higher producer margins. It is understood that production of additional pullet chicks is unlikely given forward planning by breeder-hatcheries and full utilization of facilities.

• Average hen-week production of 82.3 percent in September 2024 compares to a revised value of 82.0 percent in August 2024. This reflects a high proportion of younger hens in the national flock with many first-cycle hens and early second-cycle hens in production. (Alternatively the USDA may be under-counting hens). Average rate of lay in 2023 was 81.8 percent. The average rate of lay during any period is a function of the proportion of pullets placed, the rate of depletion of flocks and retention of molted hens for a second cycle. Average flock production declines as the weighted flock age increases or conversely will rise due to early depletion thereby increasing the proportion of young hens in their first cycle.

• The August 25^th edition of the USDA Poultry Slaughter Report documented 1.95 million light spent-hens processed under FSIS inspection during August 2024, 26.9 percent less than the previous month of July 2024 and 35.3 percent less than in August 2023 as a response to high prices favoring retention where possible. Slaughter in U.S. plants represents a small proportion in comparison to the presumed depletion of 15 million hens per month with most hens either rendered or consigned to landfills. Provided housing space is available, prevailing prices will result in retention of flocks with more routine or previously scheduled flocks molted.

SEPTEMBER 2024 COST AND UNIT REVENUE DATA FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED FLOCKS.

• The USDA ex farm benchmark blended egg price in September 2024 was 27.9 percent lower at 240 cents per dozen from the revised August 2024 value of 333 cents per dozen. This contributed to a reduced positive margin of 165.4 cents per dozen based on ‘nest-run’ generic eggs (ungraded as delivered from laying houses) during September 2024, compared to a revised positive margin of 258.0 cents per dozen in August 2024. The September 2024 USDA benchmark price of 240 cents per dozen should be compared to 98.0 cents per dozen for the corresponding month in 2023 and 268 cents per dozen in September 2022 influenced by reduced supply due to HPAI depopulation and higher demand. The relatively high values for the second through fourth quarters of 2022 compared to corresponding periods for the two previous years were due to depletion of hens following the emergence of HPAI coupled with a rise in demand following relaxation of COVID restrictions and the amplification of price rises due to the benchmark costing system.

• During September 2024, the feed component of production cost averaged 35.0 cents per dozen, up 3.3 percent or 1.1 cents per dozen from August 2024. During 2023 average feed cost was 46.4 cents per dozen compared to 50.1 cents per dozen in 2022 and 42.5 cents per dozen in 2021.

• Combining data from the USDA and the EIC, producers recorded a positive margin of 165.4 cents per dozen at farm-level for generic-egg flocks during September 2024. This compares with a revised margin of 258.0 cents per dozen in August 2024. Cumulative average monthly algebraic nest-run margin year-to-date is 102.4.0 cents per dozen. Over 2023 the average monthly margin attained 71.5 cents. During 2022 cumulative average monthly algebraic margin was 1,887 cents. For 2021 the cumulative average algebraic margin was slightly above breakeven at 9.1 cents per dozen against USDA benchmark ‘nest run’ values.

• The simple average price of feed in September 2024 over 5-regions was $227.32 per ton, higher by $6.63 per ton or 3.0 percent compared to the revised August value. Southwest data is no longer disclosed to avoid compromising a company that predominates in Texas. The highest cost among five regions was the West at $270.67 per ton, up $5.65 or 5.4 percent from August 2024. This may be compared to the lowest-cost region, the Midwest at $205.4 per ton, $4.79 per ton or 2.4 percent higher than the previous month. The average cost for feed includes ingredients plus milling and delivery charges.

• The benchmark price of corn was $163.57 per ton in September 2024, up $6.52 per ton or 4.2 percent from the average August 2024 price, taking into account the difference in basis paid by producers. The differential in corn price between the Midwest and the West in September 2024 was $71.25 per ton. A 2.6 percent increase of $9.54 per ton in the price of soybean meal to $371.13 per ton in September 2024 contributed with corn to a higher price of feed and hence production cost. During September 2024 there was a differential of $65.32 per ton in feed between the Midwest and the West compared to a difference of $64.77 per ton in August 2024. The industry does however experience regular increases in the cost of phosphate additives, fat and vitamins.

• Feed price will continue to be a major factor driving production cost and hence margin. The September WASDE #652, projected volumes for the 2024 corn and soybean harvests, ingredient use, exports and ending stocks for the two major feed ingredients. A summary of WASDE # 652 can be viewed under the statistics TAB. Unknown factors influencing feed cost during the fourth quarter of 2024 will include:-
• Continued consequences of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East with inevitable disruption in production and especially for shipping through the Black Sea and the Suez Canal.
• Projections of U.S. crop yields in 2024 based on acreage planted and weather conditions.
• Transition to a La Nina event during the early 4^th Quarter will not affect the 2024 crop with harvest commencing within weeks
• The projected drought impacted harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
• Damage to the wheat crop in Russia projected to be down by 12 percent due to early frost followed by unseasonal drought, indirectly impacting the price of corn.
• Demand by China will influence prevailing prices in international trade.
• The availability and hence prices of ingredients will also be influenced by weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere
• Export volumes of corn and soybeans from the U.S.
• Diversion of corn to ethanol and of soy oil to biodiesel.
• The economic and logistic effects associated with deflation especially in energy and anticipated interest rates.

There is obviously higher demand for ethanol with production projected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 970,000 barrels per day but with an average exceeding one-million barrels per day during 2023 extending through the first half of 2024. Substantial exports of soybeans, although with lower volumes to China, during the 2023-2024 market year is supporting domestic price and hence contributing to the cost of egg production. Each $10 per ton difference in feed cost represents approximately 1.70 cents per dozen. A change of $1 per ton (2.8 cents per bushel) in the price of corn is reflected in a 0.11 cent per dozen change in production cost. A $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal affects production cost by 0.35 cent per dozen.

• The EIC calculated the 4-Region (excluding the West and Southwest) adjusted total nest-run production cost in September 2024 to be 74.6 cents per dozen, 1.2 cent per dozen higher than in August 2024. Production costs for conventional eggs from caged flocks during September 2024 ranged from 72.3 cents per dozen in the Midwest up to a calculated value of 83.0 cents per dozen in the West, higher than the Midwest region by approximately 10.7 cents per dozen. During 2023 the average monthly cost of production was 85.9 cents per dozen and 81.0 cents per dozen in 2022.

Deletion of Southwest and West data is considered a substantial deficiency of the EIC Report. Given the price of feed and with appropriate assumptions values for these regions could be determined. Exclusion of cost data skews the mean for the U.S.

• National retail egg prices as determined by the Department of Commerce for August 2024 averaged 320 cents per dozen, up 12.0 cents per dozen for conventional white-shelled Large eggs compared to July 2024. During August 2022 and 2023 retail prices were respectively 317 and 197 cents per dozen. From 2017 through 2021 average retail prices did not decline in proportion to ex-farm prices, with chains imposing higher margins at retail, thereby depressing demand. Conventional supermarkets have recently demonstrated some restraint in pricing possibly due to competition from deep discounters and club stores, despite sustained demand.

SEPTEMBER 2024 COST AND UNIT REVENUE DATA FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE FLOCKS*.

• The USDA ex farm benchmark blended egg price for cage-free eggs in September 2024 was 208 cents per dozen, a noteworthy decline of 232 cents per dozen or 52.7 percent from August at 440 cents per dozen. This contributed to a positive margin of 113.9 cents per dozen based on ‘nest-run’ eggs (ungraded as delivered from the laying house) in September 2024, compared to a positive margin of 347.3 cents per dozen in August 2024. The September 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run price of 208 cents per dozen should be compared to 120 cents per dozen for the corresponding month in 2023 and 335 cents per dozen in September 2022 influenced by HPAI depopulation and heightened demand.

• The EIC calculated the 4-Region (excluding the West and Southwest) adjusted total nest-run production cost in September 2024 to be 94.1 cents per dozen, 1.3 cents per dozen higher than the August 2024 value. Production costs for eggs from cage-free flocks during September 2024 ranged from 89.7 cents per dozen in the Midwest up to a value of 102.7 cents per dozen in the West, higher than the Midwest region by 13.0 cents per dozen.

• National retail egg prices for cage-free brown as determined by the Department of Commerce for September 2024 averaged 324 cents per dozen, up 40 cents per dozen compared to August 2024. During September 2022 and 2023 retail prices were respectively 312 and 310 cents per dozen.

*Excludes Certified Organic and pastured flocks

EXPORT DATA FOR AUGUST 2024 COMBINING ALL EGG CATEGORIES.

• The previous Export Report for July is posted under the STATISTICS Tab.

• It is presumed that almost all exports of white-shelled eggs and their products are derived from caged flocks.

• According to USDA-FAS data, 239,000 cases of shell eggs were exported in August 2024, representing 1.1 percent of total production. This was a 30.6 percent increase compared to July 2024 and was dominated by Canada, (186,000 cases) or 77.8 percent of the total shipped during the month. This was followed by “Other America” (Caribbean, Central and South America) at 41,000 cases representing 17.2 percent of shell egg exports.

• Exports of egg products in August 2024 attained 206,000 case-equivalents, up 2.5 percent from the previous month equivalent to 1.0 percent of U.S. output. Increases expressed as case equivalents were recorded for Asia, excluding South Korea and Japan (+22,000), and the E.U. (+12,000). Decreases were attributed to lower volumes to Japan (-37,000) and Mexico (-14,000); the E.U.
• Collectively, exports of shell eggs and products in August 2024 comprised the output from approximately 5.9 million hens in production during the month. Exports attained 445,400 case-equivalents, up 15.5 percent from July 2024 but 25.3 percent less than combined exports during the pre-HPAI first quarter of 2022 averaging 596,300 case equivalents per month.

• Maintaining export volume is attributed to cooperation between the AEB and USAPEEC, in existing, new and potential markets. Specific attention is directed to nations with the potential to import U.S. product based on landed price against competition. Exports of both egg-products and shell eggs in August 2024 corresponded to 2.1 percent of a nominal national flock of approximately 305 million producing hens, (before HPAI depletions) on commercial farms holding more than 30,000 hens.

• There is no scientifically justifiable reason why any nation should embargo pasteurized egg products from an approved plant, based on a diagnoses of H5 or H7 avian influenza or velogenic Newcastle disease in a specific state or country.