Status of 2024 Corn and Soybean Crops
The USDA Crop Progress Report released on November 12th recorded 96 percent of the soybean crop harvested, an advance of 2 percent this past week. Ninety five percent of the corn crop has has been harvested, up 4 percent from last week. Both crops were ahead of the 5-year averages by 5 percent and 11 percent respectively compared to the corresponding week in 2023. At the end of each season extending into mid-November progress in completing the harvest slows following the principle of diminishing returns as poor quality and late-planted fields remain.
Consistent with seasonal temperatures and previous rainfall across the Midwest and Plains states, crop condition was assumed to have remained unchanged during the past four weeks in the absence of reports. Prospects for high corn and soybean yields were reflected in stable price projections in the WASDE. The CME futures prices for November and December (‘new crop’) delivery were higher by less than five percent compared to the USDA projections.
Heat stress that occurred during silking predisposes corn to fungal infection leading to mycotoxin contamination of kernels. Unseasonal rain during the immediate pre-harvest period for corn will also contribute to the elaboration of mycotoxins. The status of the 2024 crop in regions will require monitoring post-harvest in affected areas and especially if unseasonal precipitation occured during the late pre-harvest period. Initial assays suggest corn with elevated DON in some regions.
Reference is made to the November 8th WASDE Report #654 retrievable under the Statistics TAB, and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report, in this edition, documenting acreage harvested, yields, weekly prices and ending stocks. Data for 2024 will be updated finally in the December WASDE to be summarized in the December 14th edition of EGG-NEWS.
The November WASDE presumably incorporated the results of the USDA-NASS annual remote survey on yields and final production. Pro Farmer completed their annual crop tour in mid-August. The November WASDE report estimated U.S. corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre (compared to the Pro Farmer estimate of 183.8 bushels per acre) with a projected crop of 15.14 billion bushels. (Pro Farmer, 15.20 billion bushels). The corresponding values for soybeans were a yield of 51.7 bushels per acre (Pro Farmer 53.1 bushels per acre) contributing to a 2024 crop of 4.46 billion bushels. (Pro Farmer 4.93 billion bushels).