Both in the plurality and by state, the incoming President and his Administration have a clear mandate. Let us hope that stability in both domestic and foreign policy will prevail and that prosperity will improve. Initial indications from the stock market suggest approval of policies advocated during the pre-election period. The concurrent rise in interest rates predicts that borrowing will escalate and that the national debt will continue its upward trajectory to become a problem for our children and grandchildren.
The overwhelming consideration for the agricultural sector will be the proposed imposition of protective and in some cases punitive tariffs that will restrict exports of commodities. With respect to soybeans, Brazil and Argentina represent efficient competitors with adequate production. With the loss of the market represented by China and some other nations, prices will fall to the disadvantage of row crop farmers but will benefit livestock producers including broilers, turkeys and eggs. Since the broiler industry exports leg quarters, basically a commodity, most importers who are unaffected by U.S. tariffs will continue to buy the product, based on need and price.
The imposition of tariffs will increase the price of imported equipment, especially over the short term, but will ultimately encourage local manufacture and fabrication.
There will be profound changes in policy and operation at USDA. It is hoped that the lame duck session of the 118th Congress will produce a viable Farm Bill, delayed since 2023, with most provisions having expired at the end of September. Benefits that have been extended to minorities and small producers in the form of special programs that are essentially giveaways will cease under the new Administration, focusing on productivity and rationality and less on ideological considerations. The move towards “restructuring” the meat and poultry industries will disappear with large plants operated by the major producers continuing to provide the bulk of red meat. Numerous current antitrust activities will be terminated with replacement of extremists in the FTC and DOJ, exercising their respective sociopolitical agendas.
The question of immigration will require balance. It is hoped that a comprehensive review of policy will lead to enactment of fair and constructive legislation. While it is considered appropriate to deport criminals and those who have illegally entered the Nation, it must be remembered that agriculture relies on foreign labor. Legal routes to entry and employment must be revised and extended but should also be strictly enforced.
The incoming Administration has a mandate to govern according to the platform presented to the electorate. Let us hope that both the Executive and Legislative branches recognize their responsibilities to the Nation to work cooperatively for the benefit of the total economy and especially the agricultural community responsible for our health and prosperity.
God bless America!