Status of 2024 Corn and Soybean Crops

The USDA Crop Progress Report released on October 7^th recorded 90 percent of the soybean crop dropping leaves and 47 percent harvested, a major advance of 21 percent this past week. Eighty seven percent of the corn crop is now mature and 30 percent has been harvested, only three percent more than last week. Both crops were ahead of the 5-year averages for the corresponding week.

Days suitable for field-work attained 5.9 per week for the nine states with the highest corn and soybean production (range 4.0 days for PA. up to 6.8 days for KS.), allowing faster harvest in some states or areas. This compares with 4.7 days for last week.

Consistent with seasonal temperatures and previous rainfall across the Midwest and Plains states, crop condition was almost unchanged during the past week. Corn and soybeans attained 64 and 63 percent each for the two highest categories of “Good” and “Excellent.” The October 6^th values for corn and soybean quality were considerably higher than the 53 and 51 percent recorded for corn and soybean crops respectively for the two highest categories during the corresponding week in 2023. Prospects for high yields were reflected in lower price projections in the September WASDE despite a more recent rise in CME future prices for November and December (‘new crop’) delivery, subsequent to the release of the report and uncertainty over the size of crops in South America due to drought.

It is unlikely that the transition to a La Nina event will have any impact on U.S. crop condition through harvest. Prolonged dry and hot weather apparent at this time interspersed with rain will not depress corn and soy yields depending on timing and severity.

Heat stress that occurred previously during silking predisposes corn to fungal infection leading to mycotoxin contamination of kernels. Unseasonal rain during the pre-harvest period for corn will also result in elaboration of mycotoxins. The status of the 2024 crop will require monitoring at harvest in affected areas and especially if unseasonal precipitation occurs during the pre-harvest period.

Reference is made to the September 13^th WASDE Report #652 and the weekly Commodity, Economy and Energy Report, both in this edition, documenting acreage to be harvested, yields, weekly prices and ending stocks.

During October the USDA-NASS intends to report on the annual remote survey to estimate yields and final production, in all probability incorporated in WASDE #653 to be reviewed in the October 18^th Edition of EGG-NEWS. Pro Farmer completed their annual crop tour in mid-August. The August 23^rd report estimated a corn yield of 181.1 bushels per acre with a projected crop of 14.98 billion bushels. The corresponding values for soybeans were yield of 54.9 bushels per acre contributing to a 2024 crop of 4.74 billion bushels.

EGG-NEWS will report on the progress of the two major crops as monitored by the USDA through the end of the 2024 harvest in November.