It is generally accepted that actual cases of COVID-19 are under-reported. This is due the large number of asymptomatic infections and chronic and profound deficiencies in testing and availability of diagnostic resources, especially in rural areas and for the economically disadvantaged demographic. In a report* published on November 25th, epidemiologists affiliated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 53 million people in the U.S had been infected by the end of September 2020. Official reports placed the number of cases at 6.9 million, suggesting that only one in eight cases were actually diagnosed and recorded.
The CDC group evaluated available data on symptomatic illness, hospitalizations and incidence rates for COVID-19 with reference to available serologic data. It was estimated that through the end of September, only one out of 2.5 cases that were hospitalized and one out of every seven non-hospitalized cases were nationally reported. It is therefore estimated that 2.4 million hospitalizations and 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses occurred from February 27th through September 30th 2020.
It is emphasized that the report covers data to the end of September with 6.9 confirmed cases at this time. During the past two months, the number of confirmed cases has almost doubled to 13.3 million cases suggesting as many as a 100 million among the U.S. population have been infected with COVID-19. The report noted the disparity in age among reported cases which may be due to the fact that children were infrequently tested or presented for treatment.
The report estimates that 13 percent of cases were documented through the end of September.
This figure should be compared to an estimate provided by Dr. Robert Redfield, Director of the CDC, in May 2020 suggesting with prescience that the U.S was recording only 10 percent of actual cases. The CDC data reflecting September indicated that between one and twenty percent of the U.S. population carried antibodies against SARS-COV-2, depending on location and occupation, with an estimated average ten percent prevalence of antibody.
The fact that as many as one million people have been infected and only 10 percent carry antibodies effectively demolishes the “herd immunity” theories propagated by Dr. Scott Atlas and his adherents. Failure to establish widespread immunity was confirmed by serologic surveys conducted in Stockholm mid-year.
By December 8th there were 285,000 documented fatalities attributed to COVID-19. Mortality rose to between 1,000 and 2,000 per day over the last half of November with over 100,000 hospitalized. Over 15.1 million cases have been diagnosed with as many as 170,000 to 200,000 incident cases per day prior to the anticipated surge following Thanksgiving travel and interaction.
*Reese, H. et al Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization – United States, February-September 2020 Clinical Infectious Diseases doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa 1780 November 25, 2020