As of April 2nd the U.S. had exceeded 225,000 confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 and 5,300 fatalities with as many as 20,000 incident cases reported the previous day.  The number of cases is effectively a function of the availability of test kits with rationing to those with clinical symptoms. Effectively we have no idea of the prevalence of the infection in either urban or rural communities without structured sampling for virus and serologic surveys for antibody status.  The duration of the epidemic will depend on the success of preventive measures to "flatten the curve" mainly by limiting social contact. This is necessary to prevent swamping of medical facilities with the anticipated surge in incident cases.  Epidemiologists’ models predict that the incidence rate will peak in mid- to late April based on realistic assumptions and experience gained from Asia and Europe.

Currently social distancing, quarantine for known infected individuals and contacts, avoiding travel and personal hygiene are the only applicable preventive measures.  Scientist are working on therapeutic agents and evaluating existing drugs while developing new candidates.  Scientific evaluation of the efficacy of antiviral compounds in addition to hyperimmune serum will require at least three months.  Candidate vaccines have been developed, but again proving safety and efficiency against SARS-CoV-2 and then producing vaccines in adequate quantities will require at least a year.

Since there is only recent experience with the SARS-CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 infection and given that the World's population is completely susceptible, it is possible that even if the infection is controlled by mid-summer, resurgence may occur in the fall as with seasonal influenza.  On the other hand, both SARS and MERS, both caused by related coronaviruses apparently disappeared within months of emergence as clinical entities.

The current measures to lower infection rate will have profound changes in society irrespective of the availability of therapy and vaccines.  Some of the effects of COVID-19 will include:

• Greater emphasis on planning at the federal, state and local levels to detect and control future epidemics
• Increased expenditure on medical disciplines including virology, immunology, epidemiology and emergency response
• A long-term initiative to reduce the impact of predisposing factors such as obesity, diabetes and other lifestyle factors that exacerbate exposure to respiratory and systemic viruses
• A shift in consumption of meals at home at the expense of family-casual and fine-dining restaurants. QSRs will survive providing they offer drive-through service
• Home delivery of meals will increase in popularity. This in turn will change menu offerings since not all foods travel well, even other short distances
• Eggs were shown to be absolute necessities as evidenced by a surge in demand from early March onwards. Hopefully this trend will continue as consumers recognize the nutritional value and competitive cost and versatility of eggs compared to other proteins.
• With restoration of the supply-to-demand equilibrium, prices will fall sharply after the current transitory windfall
• Enforced stay-at-home has placed greater dependence on electronic communication, for education, meetings, entertainment and completion of administrative work.  This trend will continue changing the nature of the workforce.
• Consumers will place greater reliance on E-commerce at the expense of malls and stores.

The prolonged period of suboptimal margins experienced by the egg-production industry in 2019 has generated reluctance on the part of financial institutions to continue to extend working capital to inefficient producers. Banks have been hard pressed by COVID-19 as the economy has virtually shut down. Despite the transitory surge in demand for shell eggs, the business plans of applicants for loans will be carefully scrutinized before extending long-term capital for expansion and conversion to aviary systems. 

The sharp transition from restaurant dining to consuming meals at home will alter the relative volumes of shell eggs and liquid marketed.  To compensate for loss in food service, egg liquid processors will have to devise new presentations and menu items for home-meal preparation. This has implications through the entire chain of food production and distribution

Given cooperation, the application of medical science and rational decisions at the federal, state and municipal level we will prevail over COVID-19. The current year marks a transition in our society to a post epidemic era.  Nothing will ever be the same again.