On February 26^th, Secretary Rollins announced a “robust strategy to deliver affordable eggs”.  A review of the five-point program suggests “more of the same” with the promise of additional money and introduction of a few semantic changes that rise to the level of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Before considering the components of the program, a review of the past three years of USDA policy denotes their failure to control highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Depopulation in 2022 attained 43.1 million laying hens, 14.4 million were killed in the succeeding year, 39.7 million in 2024 and approximately 30 million hens have been removed from the national population year-to-date.  Despite replacement of approximately 4 million started pullets each month, retention of flocks beyond normal age of depletion and other measures, flock size has fallen from 328 million on February 1^st 2021 through 310 million in 2023 declining to 292 million on February 1^st 2025.

Reduction in supply affecting both shell eggs and products has resulted in a disproportionate increase in price currently a source of embarrassment to the Administration with a pre-election commitment to reducing food inflation.

Attempts at “stamping out” what is obviously an endemic infection with wild bird reservoirs has proven to be unsuccessful and exceedingly expensive to the public sector. Futile efforts by the USDA have incurred a cost of close to $2.4 billion for indemnity and decontamination.  This figure pales in comparison with the cost borne by consumers.  The conservative $3 per dozen differential between the pre-HPAI cost compared to the average price in 2024 amounts to $23 billion over the 7.6 billion dozen consumed in either shell or equivalent liquid form.

The “five-pronged approach” is little changed from what has preceded the current unsatisfactory situation.  USDA will subsidize improvements in structural and operational biosecurity by up to $500 million but will require a 25 percent match by producers.  Deployment of laser installations would be a meaningful improvement in biosecurity given current knowledge of how flocks are infected. These installations if positioned and operated continuously have proven effective in preventing congregation of waterfowl. These birds serve as reservoirs of the virus in the vicinity of farms, many of which are located near wetlands or rivers along the major flyways.  A second improvement in biosecurity could be the installation of effective commercial vehicle washing installations, especially for feed mills supplying egg production and turkey farms.  Accepted structural biosecurity in the form of modules in which employees can shed outer clothing, shower and don farm-provided protective clothing should have been be the responsibility of individual producers.  In any event, producers who are at this late stage are now requesting USDA payments to introduce structural biosecurity should be obliged to undertake to repay grants. Progressive producers have invested in improvements notwithstanding the reality that even the most effective structural and operational biosecurity cannot provide absolute protection against windborne virus.

Throwing money at the problem will not solve the problem of too few hens in production. Replacement of flocks is limited by the availability of day-old chicks from a finite number of parent-level breeders. Restoring the national flock in the immediate term is restrained by the biological reality that pullets commence lay at approximately 20 weeks of age.  Despite the allocation of $400 million from March through the end of the USDA fiscal year, no specifics were provided on how this sum will increase the number of hens in the national flock.

USDA will assign $100 million for vaccine innovation and other strategies to reduce depopulation.  For the edification of Secretary Rollins, vaccines proven to be effective are available off the shelf. Both today and tomorrow. There is considerable published data on the effectiveness of HVT-vector vaccines and for inactivated oil emulsion products.  If there is a deficiency with respect to vaccination it relates to production capacity.  Given the potential demand for vaccines world-wide, the biologics industry will be willing to invest in expanded capacity providing there are no artificial restrictions intended to delay approval and deployment of commercial products.

When we come down to reality it is evident that the reticence to allow vaccination is a fear over trade embargos that may impact the broiler segment of the industry. The USDA is dancing around the single effective modality to reduce the incidence rate of HPAI outbreaks and to restore production.

Tinkering with cage free restriction and introduction of as yet defined “innovative strategies” or the expedient of importation will have no immediate or intermediate effect on the supply of eggs. Enhanced biosecurity alone is not the answer. Depopulation will continue if the USDA persists in a clearly ineffective strategy to control an endemic infection with a wildlife reservoir.

The possibility of zoonotic infection was an aspect of HPAI that was not considered in the “ Five-pronged Approach”.  Neither the U.S. nor the world can afford an H5N1 pandemic given the lessons of COVID.  Admittedly the risk is low despite emerging mutations that have allowed mammal-to-mammal transmission of H5N1 virus. To date only a low level of infection of workers in contact with infected flocks and dairy herds has been recorded albeit with less than enthusiastic surveillance.  Notwithstanding the frequently repeated “low probability of an emerging epidemic or pandemic”, the consequences would be catastrophic and would reflect adversely on the legacy of the Administration if effective control measures including vaccination of large populations of hens were to be ignored.

Avian influenza is the Newcastle disease of the 2020s.  This infection was catastrophic during the 1970s as HPAI is today.  Newcastle disease is effectively suppressed below the outbreak threshold by effective vaccination and is not an impediment to trade in poultry and products.

 In the U.s.The USDA should take cognizance of the findings incorporated in the World Organization for Animal Health document Vaccination and Surveillance for HPAI in Poultry: Current Situation and Perspectives, published following the October 22^nd 2024, meeting of world experts in Paris.

We have the resources to suppress HPAI applying strict biosecurity coupled with vaccination. This is consistent with the World Organization for Animal Health Terrestrial Animal Health Code supporting vaccination.  The WOAH considers that vaccination should facilitate safe trade without increasing the risk of HPAI in poultry and products.

It is time for a radical change in suppressing endemic HPAI. Based on the failure of “stamping out” to control the infection, throwing more money at the situation as in the proposed USDA Five-pronged Approach will not have any meaningful effect on reducing the incidence rate of HPAI or the cost of eggs as denoted by the realities of the past three years.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America

Depopulation was carried out as required through the fourth quarter of 2024 and has continued through 2025 to date as a result of HPAI. The USDA Cage-Free Report covering February 2025, released on March 3^rd 2025, documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.5 million (rounded to 0.1 million), up 0.1 million from January 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently increased by 2.7 million hens or 2.7 percent from January 2025 to 103.7 million, despite extensive flock depopulation during the month.

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in February 2025 was up 1.1 percent compared to January 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.0 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was up 3.3 percent in February 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.7 percent, up from 82.6 percent. Seasonally, younger flocks increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously especially in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview the categorization of flocks according to housing system among the total of 292 million hens on

February 1^st was:-

Caged, 169 million (57.2% of 292 million hens on February 1^st.);

Cage Free, 102 million (34.9%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 21 million (7.2%) with 5% each on free-range and pasture:

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for February 2025 averaged $7.74 per dozen, up 6.9 percent from $7.24 per dozen in January 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply. The February 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW & SC.) was $7.99 per dozen, apparently up $5.11 per dozen from January 2025 based on 62 stores. This compares with 133 stores in January and reflects fewer promotions as the year has progressed reflecting the ongoing incidence rate of HPAI.

The recorded average wholesale price of $7.77 per dozen plus a provision of 60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, results in a price of $8.37 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail negative margin of 4.8 percent (-172.4 percent last month) for promotions offered by the few stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of producers and stakeholders

FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHTS

• February 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 740 cents per dozen, up 156 cents per dozen or 27.1 percent from the January 2025 value of 582 cents per dozen. The corresponding February 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $2.11 and $1.33 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An additional factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is currently the major driver of price with a high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with to 31 million birds in 31 complexes or farms year to date.
• February 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was unchanged from January 2025 at 76.1 cents per dozen. The February average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be unchanged at 95.3 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 663.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 505.9 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen over 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• February 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 820.7 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 713.7 cents per dozen in January 2025. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.
• The January 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 10.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 297.8 million compared to the revised December 2024 value of 308.2 million and relative to 326 million before the advent of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt in December together with projected maturation of 26 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• January 2025 pullet chick hatch of 28.1 million was up 1.5 million (+5.6 percent) from December 2024 reflecting increased industry demand for replacements of depopulated flocks.
• January 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 15.9 percent from December 2024 to 369,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.9 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 239,000 cases were dominated by Canada (84 percent of volume) and the Caribbean nations (15 percent). With respect to 130,000 case equivalents of egg products, Japan, (31 percent of volume), Canada, (25 percent) and Mexico, (18 percent) collectively represented 81 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.

                      (insert US map showing regions)

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR FEBRUARY 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA February 2025 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on March 7^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous February 10^th 2025 release reflecting January 2025 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality  

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 282 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

(insert Fig 10 leading states)

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA)   81.7%* January 2025.    82.3% January 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook February 18^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF February 2025:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)   December  2024, 6.08*     January   2025,  5.87       

EXPORTS JANUARY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.8 percent of National production in JANUARY 2025 (1.1% shell, 0.6% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting FEBRUARY 2025:-

                                                         740.0 cents per dozen¹- 76.1 cents per dozen = 663.9 cents per dozen         (January 2025 comparison:         582.0 cents per dozen – 76.1 cents per dozen  = 505.9 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price          

1. Unrealistic USDA prices based on promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

      (insert Fig 2 Farm egg value, Fig 3 Consumer retail, Fig 4 Estimated quarterly)

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for FEBRUARY 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     916.0 cents per dozen¹- 95.3 cents per dozen =  820.7 cents per dozen

January 2025:-         809.0 cents per dozen -  95.3 cents per dozen =  713.7 cents per dozen  

1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $6.00 to $8.98 per dozen
2. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores non-representative of shelf prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

The performance of a laying flock is predicated on achieving uniform maturity, body weight, and reproductive development consistent with genetic potential. Eggs lost at the beginning of a cycle can never be made up. Attaining an early onset in production, a rapid increase in case weight, a high peak, and persistence are all dependent on the development of flocks from day old through rearing and post-transfer training.

Big Dutchman has acquired experience in the design and manufacture of rearing systems for cage-free production based on the physiological needs of pullets. The NATURA® Filia rearing system incorporates the recommendations of research institutes and producers to apply a range of operational procedures relating to feeding, vaccination, and handling that allow optimal musculoskeletal development and flock welfare.

Big Dutchman NATURA® Filia Rearing System

• Flocks are placed in the lower of the two tiers of the NATURA® Filia system for the brooding phase that extends to three weeks. This allows for optimal visibility, temperature control, and feed intake.

• At 3 to 4 weeks of age, consistent with the management schedule, flocks are vaccinated and are divided evenly between the two tiers.

• At 5 to 6 weeks, doors are opened, allowing pullets to access the aisles and to move between tiers using the ramps, bridges, and adjustable perches incorporated into the system. Both lateral and vertical movement in the NATURA® Filia installation is critical to developing balance and muscle development to allow flocks to adapt to compatible Big Dutchman NATURA® Step or Visio laying systems. Each of the components of the NATURA® Filia is based on a scientific evaluation of the needs of pullets and contributes to uniformity and maturity at the time of transfer, usually at 16 to 17 weeks of age. Features of the NATURA® Filia include:

Construction

The NATURA® Filia incorporates durable construction with floors fabricated from zinc-aluminum coated wire, resistant to corrosion. Support structures are designed and engineered for stability and are compatible with houses over 300 feet. Sliding doors are designed for ease of opening for chick placement and flock transfer.

Sliding doors facilitate chick placement, vaccination and transfer

Moveable partitions are installed at 5-foot intervals on both tiers to confine chicks to smaller groups during the brooding and early rearing phases. The partitions facilitate vaccination or other procedures requiring individual handling of birds. As the flock ages, partitions can be opened to create larger groups within the tier.

Interior view of lower tier during brooding showing moveable partition (rear) and perches above feeder trough and drinker line

Flock Comfort and Development

The NATURA® Filia system incorporates bridges from the lower tier to the floor, ramps between the two tiers, and step platforms. Perches with a patented design are positioned to encourage the flock to face the aisle, allowing manure to be collected on belts. This reduces fecal accumulation along the aisles and reduces the production of ammonia in litter.

Feeders and Drinkers

Each tier is equipped with a proven Big Dutchman chain circuit designed to prevent spillage. Guards are installed in the feed trough during the brooding period.

Perches are installed above the drinker lines and feed circuits to limit soiling.

Drinker lines comprising nipples with drip cups can be raised consistently with the growth of the flock.

Bridges encourage chicks to descend to litter from brooding tier   Ramps allow pullets to transit between tiers   Patented perch design and placement orients pullets to face the aisle   Nipple drinkers with drip cups are located on each tier   Feeder trough fitted with removable anti-waste insert during brooding

Lighting

A range of lighting installations is available including LED fixtures along the aisles and within the system. Compatibility in design between the NATURA® Filia rearing system and the Big Dutchman NATURA® Step and Visio laying installations ensures a harmonious transition after transfer. This reduces stress and excitability in the flock which is deleterious to subsequent production. The lighting system is dimmable and can provide an artificial sunset to encourage the flock to return to the perches during the dark periods.

Strip LED  lighting in each tier, together with aisle installations are dimmable and can be configured for an artificial sunset

Ventilation

Big Dutchman provides compatible ventilation installations including fans, inlets, controllers, and alarms. The NATURA® Filia system is available with an optional air duct over the manure belt to reduce the moisture content of litter and hence production of ammonia.

Dimensions

NATURA® Filia systems are available in two widths to maximize capacity conforming to house dimensions, whether a new installation or a retrofit. The model 1800 has a width of 74 inches. The model 2200 is 88 inches in width. Both systems are 9 feet in height from the floor to the top of the second tier.

Dimensions of NATURA(R) Filia Model 1800   Dimensions of NATURA(R) Filia Model 2200.

Additional information on the NATURA® Filia system is available by clicking on the Big Dutchman logo at the top of this article. Design projections for either retrofits or new houses are available from regional sales representatives or an authorized Big Dutchman distributor.