This special edition of EGG-NEWS provides commentary on recent publications, reports and events relating to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).  As of mid-April, outbreaks have ceased among large egg production and pullet rearing complexes.  Notwithstanding this hiatus, evident since the beginning of March, incident cases are reported among backyard flocks, turkey growing facilities and at live bird markets suggesting extension from reservoirs of infection.  Cessation of new cases in large egg production complexes is attributed to the end of seasonal migration of waterfowl that have now settled into their annual breeding cycle.  Sporadic cases are probably due to shedding of H5N1 virus by non-migratory domestic birds.  Given experience in recent years we can anticipate a resurgence of infection in the fall as the southward migration commences impacting farms along the Pacific, Central and Mississippi flyways.  This period of low HPAI activity should be used to strengthen biosecurity and to initiate protective vaccination of rearing pullets in high-risk areas in order to develop an immune population that will be challenged during the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Noteworthy publications and events over the past two weeks relating to HPAI are reviewed for the benefit of subscribers:-

HPAI Vaccination Work Group Submits Proposal

A working group comprising Drs. John Clifford, Craig Rowles, Travis Schaal and David Swayne distributed a proposed vaccination plan dated April 1, 2025, to respond to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the U.S. egg industry.  The Working Group was convened by the United Egg Producers and the American Egg Board representing U.S. egg producers. The document includes factual information on the availability and efficacy of vaccines and incorporates sections on monitoring for effective immunization and surveillance to facilitate certification for export.

Essentially the document confirms what many in the industry have recognized as the futility of the USDA-APHIS response of attempting to ‘stamp out” the endemic infection given the unprecedented depopulation of over 130 million egg laying hens on more than 130 farms since the onset of the current H5N1 epornitic that commenced in 2022.

The summary correctly maintains that “a new approach to reduce layer and pullet flock susceptibility to HPAI virus should be considered to increase resistance to infection, reduce viral shedding and importantly reduce the risk of a potential mutation event that may lead to further HPAI infection in human.”  The document suggests a program under which flocks could be vaccinated with a priority for replacement pullets.  The report correctly stresses the need for high levels of biosecurity, echoing the recommendations of the World Organization of Animal Health. 

Vecor vaccination  in ovo  or S.Cut to chicks with booster

Oil-emulsion vaccine im during rearing

The report failed to stress the impact of flock depletion on egg prices and the cost to consumers that exceeded $15 billion in 2022 and considerably more in 2024 with an additional escalation in prices peaking at $8.50 per dozen at retail in late February 2025, reflecting the loss of approximately 30 million hens over an eight-week period.

The zoonotic potential of H5N1, deserved more than seven lines in a text extending over 13 pages.  Virologists and epidemiologists involved in monitoring aspects of the molecular biology of influenza have constantly stressed the risk of emergence of a zoonotic strain of H5N1 with possible human-to-human transmission.

One of the authors of the report is a distinguished researcher and has extensive experience in international regulation of avian diseases.  A member of the committee authoring the document is a prior Chief Veterinary Officer of the USDA responsible for the response to the 2015 HPAI epornitic.  Following retirement, he has served as an advisor to the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council that has a single-purpose commitment to maintaining the export volume of broiler leg quarters.  It does not appear from the document that his affiliation in any way affected his scientific objectivity. It would have been possible to have made a more definitive and stronger case for vaccination with a broader representation from among the industry.

The return of incident cases during the fall migration of waterfowl is inevitable. The current ongoing outbreaks may be attributed to resident avian and mammalian carriers. Recognition that the infection can be transmitted by the aerogenous route invalidates even strict structural and operational biosecurity and places large complexes with power ventilation at risk. The need for vaccination especially in high-risk regions along the Mississippi and Pacific flyways is self-evident.  The proposal to vaccinate pullets is obvious but will delay creation of an immune population due to the biological time restraints associated with rearing. 

The report notes, “Vaccination of caged in-lay hens is challenging and potentially unachievable in cage-free operations.” This appears to be a questionable assertion.  When the industry was confronted with severe coryza in 2023, egg producers effectively administered oil emulsion vaccines by the intramuscular route to hens in both cages and aviaries in the face of infection.

This commentator strongly supports the recommendation contained in the summary, “The industry believes that it time to enhance our overall strategy to control the virus through implementing vaccination in egg laying flocks.”  In contradistinction he final paragraph relating to “acceptability to the federal government, state animal health officials” is the major defect of the report inducing a wishy-washy, non-definitive approach ending with “We look forward to further discussion with USDA about the proposal.” 

Effectively if the broiler segment of the poultry industry is still opposed to vaccination of egg production flocks and possibly growing turkeys in high-risk regions, despite appropriate monitoring and surveillance, all we will have is more discussion and temporizing without action.  The so-called four-pronged program advocated by the newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture is effectively smoke-and-mirror, more of the same widow dressing.  It appears that USDA-APHIS either through disinclination to accept realities or acting under the duress of exporters will continue to discuss, research, evaluate, and consider vaccination while continuing to implement whack-a-mole flock depopulation at the expense of taxpayers, producers and consumers. The essence of the report is reminiscent of the sentiments attributed to St. Jerome who prayed for chastity-- but not right away.

Prominent Health Advocate Comments on the Need for Vaccination Against HPAI

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a physician, investor in medical companies and a director of pharmaceutical enterprises previously served as the 23^rd Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration in the first administration of President Trump.  He recently authored a commentary pointing to the need for vaccination of poultry flocks using currently available commercial off-the-shelf products.  In his commentary he justifiably castigated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, who advanced the inane suggestion that HPAI should be allowed to spread unchecked through flocks in the hope that a few survivors would express genes for resistance to avian influenza.

Dr. Gottlieb correctly maintains that the egg industry must use the current seasonal quiescent stage of the epornitic before resumption of migration in the fall to establish immunity among flocks at risk.  He expresses this sentiment as, “We have vaccines for bird flu made by American companies and used overseas but so far federal officials don’t seem poised to use them here.”  He points to the deployment of vaccines in France, China and Mexico among other nations and cast doubt on the various distortions of science advanced by opponents of vaccination to support ongoing exports of broiler leg quarters.

Applying logic and common sense, Dr. Gottlieb notes that, “The avian influenza strains now in circulation have persisted continuously among birds and mammals for nearly two years and there’s growing evidence that it could become a permanent feature of North America – part of a the new normal to which the poultry industry must inevitably adjust for both the physical and economic health of Americans.”

Influenza H5N1 is clearly endemic in the U.S. and in the poultry industries of many nations. The incidence rate can be suppressed to some extent by strict structural and operational biosecurity involving investment and management.  Notwithstanding the stringency of biosecurity, there is little that can be done to prevent aerogenous transmission especially into power-ventilated houses located on multi-aged egg production complexes.

Avian influenza is effectively The Newcastle Disease of the 2020s. During the 1970s Velogenic viscerotropic  Newcastle disease (VVND=END) in Europe, Asia and Africa was in every way as catastrophic as avian influenza but was effectively controlled principally by vaccination supported by biosecurity.

It is questioned why a clear thinking and well-connected physician should have a greater appreciation of the risks, consequences and potential control measures to reduce the economic and potential zoonotic impact of avian influenza compared to the administrators of USDA-APHIS. Is the firm recommendation for vaccination advanced by Dr. Gottlieb an expression of epidemiologic reality or is it that Dr. Gottlieb is an independent scientific voice unfettered by conflicts of interest? 

Introduction of the SAVE Our Poultry Act

U.S. Representatives Sarah McBride, (D-DE) and Mike Lawler, (R-NY) introduced the Supporting Avian Virus Eradication (SAVE) Our Poultry Act that is intended to elevate the standard of biosecurity and to encourage research into protection including immunization.

In announcing the proposed legislation, Rep. McBride stated, “The SAVE Our Poultry Act is about supporting our farmers and their efforts to protect their animals, their markets and their future.”  According to an April 10^th release by Rep. McBride, the intended legislation would:

• Authorize USDA research grants to study highly pathogenic avian influenza
• Analyze the impact of poultry vaccination on international trade and market access
• Fund enhanced biosecurity practices and disinfection methods for poultry producers

The press release justifiably notes the high prices for eggs as a result of depopulation of flocks and pointed to the support by the National Chicken Council (NCC) representing broiler producers, the United Egg Producers and regional poultry associations with members at risk of or having experienced losses as result of HPAI. Specifics of the Bill that would amend the Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act of 1990 emphasizes HPAI as a “high priority research and extension area”.

Among other components the bill makes provision for grants to colleges and universities to “research the effectiveness of vaccines across poultry species, improve formulations of vaccines and improve the delivery mechanisms for vaccines.  This is in itself commendable but ignores the reality that both subunit vector vaccines are available off-the-shelf together with inactivated oil emulsion products that could be deployed immediately following approval and authorization for use by USDA-APHIS.  Ongoing research is obviously beneficial, but the infection is expected to return within months and research envisaged in the SAVE Our Poultry Act would do nothing to reduce losses in 2025 through 2026.

A provision of the bill goes to the core of the disinclination by USDA to allow vaccination.  The SAVE Our Poultry Act would involve “assessing the potential implications of vaccination on domestic and international poultry markets including trade and market access considerations.”  It is evident that the broiler segment of the U.S. poultry industry through its lobbying and the influential Broiler Caucus has effectively prevented the application of vaccination to the detriment of the turkey and egg production segments irrespective of sentiments expressed by the NCC. 

Congressional Response to the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services

The poultry industry and human epidemiologists should be alarmed by the misinformed, and incendiary statements by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services as reported in the New York Times on March 18^th, relating to “letting avian flu run through flocks so we can identify the birds and preserve those that are immune to it.”  This appalling approach to end the bird flu epidemic is unworthy of even cursory consideration.

Five members of the House of Representatives addressed a letter to the Secretary on April 1^st condemning his statement and demanding reports and copies of communications among the Department of Health and Human Services, the USDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health regarding mitigation of avian influenza.

In the first instance it is noted that avian influenza will ultimately kill in excess of 98 percent of an infected flock.  During the clinical phase, vast quantities of virus are generated resulting in the potential for inter-farm spread especially where complexes are located in close proximity.  Even if a small proportion of a flock were to survive an outbreak of avian influenza their value for breeding would be negligible given that the commercial generation of broiler, turkey and egg-production flocks are hybrids. The program of “stamping-out” has in all probability reduced farm-to-farm spread notwithstanding the depopulation of 170 million commercial poultry since the onset of the 2022 epornitic.

To add insult to injury, the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins apparently embraced the distorted logic expressed by Secretary Kennedy despite confusingly advancing a “four-pronged strategy” incorporating nothing new and funded by  a proposed $1 billion in an attempt to suppress HPAI.

The five members of the House, including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Healthcare and Financial Services and Rep. Gerald E. Connoly (D-VA), Ranking Member of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform requested a list of non-governmental experts consulted by HHS relating to any federal response to avian influenza.  The Representatives also requested “a full and complete list of individuals who recommended that the federal government would allow avian flu to run through the flock in an effort to build immunity” together with their credentials and past involvement with the federal government.  The letter to Secretary Kennedy raised the justifiable issue of a potential zoonotic infection and stressed the need to “combat, contain and eliminate avian influenza, requiring a concerted and coordinated effort across all relevant federal agencies.”

Secretary Kennedy is devoid of scientific credentials. He has surrounded himself with sophists and charlatans expressing unconventional policies to prevent human infections. He has embraced conspiracy theories on disease and related topics that have been debunked by both U.S. and international scientist and agencies. As a Secretary of the HHS he is entitled to his personal opinions but not a selective or distorted expression of facts

Zoonotic Implications of HPAI

The zoonotic aspect of HPAI was reviewed in a published interview prepared by Dr. Eric Rubin Editor-in-Chief and Dr. Lindsey Baden, Deputy Editor of the New England Journal of Medicine who discussed infectivity of HPAI with virologist Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka.  Of concern is the circulation of H5N1 genotype D.11 and B3.13 in avian species and dairy herds respectively.  Although the incidence rate of bovine influenza H5N1 is declining more than 1,000 herds have been diagnosed with possibly many more infected. Both structural deficiencies and a lack of effective biosecurity within the U.S. dairy industry have contributed to dissemination of the virus.  It does not help that the Administration has terminated personnel involved in response to COVID and have effectively disbanded the group of scientists including epidemiologists, virologists and logisticians concerned with preparedness for a future pandemic.  Signing a Presidential Executive Order has transitory political effect but does not necessarily prevent the inevitable emergence of an infection with epidemic or pandemic potential at some time in the future.

Rubin, E. et al outbreak update-H5N1 New England Journal of Medicine 2025 doi.org/10.1056/nejme 2502267

Aerogenous Transmission of H5N1 Confirmed

EGG-NEWS has consistently maintained that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can be transmitted by the aerogenous route either as a bioaerosol or entrained on excreta and dust to be moved by wind.  A comprehensive epidemiologic investigation involving field observations, meteorology and molecular studies confirmed the spread of an outbreak of H5N1 from a commercial duck farm to unrelated egg production farms over a distance of five miles.  The case report with appropriate documentation involved an outbreak in the Czech Republic.  The authors note that their findings “underscore the importance of considering windborne spread in future outbreak mitigation strategies.”  Anecdotal and experimental data confirm the possibility of airborne infection extending from waterfowl excreting virus.

The USDA-APHIS has long held that “biosecurity of an acceptable standard will provide protection against HPAI.”  This is a false presumption given the ability of the virus to be transmitted over relatively long distances by the aerogenous route.  As noted by the authors of the Czech paper, power-ventilated egg production housing is extremely vulnerable given the volume of air displaced by fans. Exhaust rates may range from 200,000 to 600,000 cfm per 100,000 hens depending on climatic conditions.  Among the many failures of USDA-APHIS to address appropriate preventive measures has been a neglect of field epidemiology.  The only conclusions that can be drawn from superficial telephone-administered surveys is that proximity to waterfowl preceding an outbreak was a significant risk factor.  This would indirectly correspond with the observations in this significant publication.

Nagy, A. et al bioRxiv doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.12.637829

Editorial Comment

The Economic Impact of HPAI

There is no purpose in tiptoeing around the failure to adopt vaccination against HPAI in high-risk areas.  The broiler industry may or may not lose a part of their market for leg quarters that represent over 97 percent of shipments of USDA-inspected broiler products valued at $4.5 billion in 2024.  Although this restraint is significant in terms of volume and monetary value, the ban on vaccination requires a broader perspective.  The USDA-APHIS has expended over $2 billion in indemnity payments and logistics from the Commodity Credit Corporation.  Individual egg producers have experienced disproportionately higher losses as a result of their inability to supply markets during the period required to repopulate their complexes.  Consumers have been forced to pay high prices for eggs, far exceeding the potential loss that may be experienced through export markets.  In 2022, the average price of eggs was conservatively $2 per dozen higher than it would have been in the absence of HPAI, costing consumers an incremental $15 billion on their grocery expenditures.  In 2024 the cost to consumers as a result of HPAI was infinitely higher given the differential between average shelf price and values that would otherwise have prevailed.  The loss of 30 million hens during the first two months of 2025 was reflected in an escalation in egg prices peaking at $8.58 per dozen at wholesale on February 28^th but declining thereafter to $3.27 per dozen by the end of March. Notwithstanding this decline, the escalation in egg prices attained 60.4 percent in March 2025 compared to twelve months previously.  The disproportionate escalation in the price of eggs should be compared to an increase of 0.5 percent for food-at-home during March.  Within this category, dairy items increased by 2.2 percent, poultry meat by 0.9 percent, cereal and bakery products by 1.1 percent. Fruit and vegetables declined by 0.7 percent. and the fish and seafood category was down by 1.5 percent.

In reviewing the export market for broiler leg quarters, it is noted that volumes are declining but unit prices are moving in the opposite direction although with a net decline in total annual value.  The question arises as to whether importing nations would continue to purchase leg quarters if preventive vaccination were to be permitted for egg-production flocks in high-risk areas. Vaccination would be subject to appropriate monitoring and surveillance in accordance with World Organization of Animal Health (WOAH) or negotiated standards. It is envisaged that USDA-APHIS could certify that broiler flocks of origin contributing to exports were free of HPAI at the time of slaughter.  It is also important to note that many of the nations importing U.S. leg quarters do so on the basis of low cost with an average unit price of $1,424 prevailing over the first two months of 2025 covering 479,000 metric tons.  Many importing nations are endemic with respect to HPAI and in some cases deploy vaccines against the infection. This would facilitate exports in accordance with the rules of the WOAH. 

The USDA-APHIS has been stubbornly remiss in their failure to negotiate terms under which U.S. producers could justifiably export broiler leg quarters from non-infected flocks.  For more than three years the Agency has labored under the misplaced presumption that HPAI is exotic in the U.S. and that the disease could be eradicated following an anachronistic “stamping-out” program.  The fallacy in the APHIS playbook is the failure to accept that infection is disseminated by millions of wild bird reservoirs on a seasonal basis together with introduction by migratory marine birds cohabitating with waterfowl in the Canadian Maritime provinces and in Alaska with extension down into British Colombia.

For the edification of APHIS there is adequate anecdotal and scientific evidence of introduction of infection on to farms by the aerogenous route. This reality means that even the strictest biosecurity does not provide absolute protection against H5N1 and other highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses suggesting a phased shift in the approach to vaccination.

Reducing the Capacity of the U.S to Respond to Zoonotic HPAI

The ongoing mass dismissals in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will have an adverse effect on testing consumer dairy products although it is generally accepted that pasteurization inactivates bovine influenza H5N1 strain B3-13 virus.  Similar reductions in staffing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will compromise detection of possible zoonotic infection that appears to be increasing in complexity and significance.  Mass layoffs have affected 40 cooperating laboratories within the FDA Veterinary, Laboratory Investigation and Response Network and also the USDA National Animal Health Laboratory Network responsible for aspects of routine and diagnostic activities.  Critical reductions have occurred among the personnel of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network that coordinates activities between the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratory and the approximately 60 state and university laboratories throughout the U.S. This commentator gives little credence to a USDA spokesperson that averred that job reduction “will not compromise the critical work of the department including its ongoing response to avian influenza.”

Stop Press: 60-Minutes Segment on HPAI

The 60-Minutes airing on April 20^th focused on bovine influenza H5N1 with little coverage of HPAI in poultry other than the obvious impact on egg prices. The greatest deficiency was a lack of ‘assurance’ that avian influenza is not transmissible to consumers through eggs.  APHIS was disinclined either through governmental restraint or lack of photogenic administrators, from participation in the program.

The Bottom Line

It is hoped that well-intended Congressional action, comments by informed commentators and scientific publications will break the de facto veto exercised by the broiler sector over vaccination as a modality to suppress outbreaks of HPAI in turkey and egg-producing flocks. Further temporizing proposed in the form of additional “discussion” and “research” is disingenuous. Delay will be both costly and represent a risk of emergence of a potentially zoonotic strain. The Administration should sincerely work towards reducing the price of eggs over the long term, limit public sector expenditures on control and avoid even the smallest risk of a catastrophic pandemic. Those in authority in the  USDA and DHHS would be well advised to heed the advice of epidemiologists, avian health practitioners, the WOAH and informed observers regarding the efficacy and desirability of vaccination to establish immune populations with appropriate surveillance in high-risk areas.

This update of U.S cage-free production is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the benefit of producers in North America.

The USDA Cage-Free Report covering April 2025, was released on May 2^nd 2025.

The report documented the complement of hens producing under the Certified Organic Program to be 20.4 million (rounded to 0.1 million), unchanged from March 2025. The number of hens classified as cage-free (but excluding Certified Organic) and comprising aviary, barn and other systems of housing apparently decreased by 0.1 million hens or 0.1 percent from March 2025 to 105.3 million.

Depopulation was carried out as a result of HPAI through the fourth quarter of 2024 and continuing in January and February 2025 (31 million) but with lower intensity in March (0.2 million) and April (1.0 million).

Average weekly production for Certified Organic eggs in April 2025 was down 0.1 percent compared to March 2025 with a questionably high average weekly production of 84.2 percent. Average weekly flock production for cage-free flocks other than Certified Organic was down 0.1 percent percent in April 2025, but with a high average hen-month production of 82.9 percent. Seasonally placed younger flocks in anticipation of periods of peak seasonal demand increase the availability of cage-free and organic eggs in response to pullet chick placements 20 weeks previously.

There is no adequate explanation for the high production rate especially if the reported number of hens is lower than actual, and in view of a possible undercount following HPAI flock depopulation.

According to the USDA Egg Markets Overview and data from the weekly USDA Shell Egg Demand Indicator for April 30^th the categorization of U.S. flocks according to housing system among the total of 283 million producing hens on April 1^st comprised:-

Caged, 157.3 million (55.7%);

Cage Free, 105.3 million (37.1%) with 87% in barns and 8% each on free-range and pasture;

Organic, 20.4 million (7.2%) with 90% in barns and 5.0% each on free-range and pasture:

Losses attributed to HPAI in 2025 to date comprised:-

Caged flocks, 20.3 million representing 7.1 percent of nominal hens in production

Cage-free flocks, 11.0 million representing 3.9 percent

Organic flocks, negligible, >0.1 percent

*Validity of this unchanged population questioned

On May 5^th USDA recorded the following National inventory levels expressed in 30-dozen cases with the weekly change as a percentage of the total quantity of eggs:-

Commodity shell eggs of all sizes. 1,217,300. (+3.6%)

Commodity breaking stock. 274,100. (-9.2%)

Specialty eggs. 41,000. (-5.0%)

Certified organic eggs. 75,000. (-2.6%)

Cage Free eggs 363,200. (+0.5%)

*March report listed only Brown, April report listed only White. All regions listed the same price

Negotiated nest-run grade-ready cage-free price for April 2025 averaged $4.48 per dozen, down $0.89 per dozen (16.6 percent) from $5.37 per dozen in March 2025, reflecting an imbalance between demand relative to supply.

The April 2025 advertised U.S. featured retail price for Large White cage-free eggs over only four regions (NE, SE, MW and SC.) was $7.99 per dozen. This compares with 153 stores offering cage-free Large Brown in March and reflects few promotions as the year has progressed, consistent with the high incidence rate of HPAI during January and February followed by a decline.

The recorded average wholesale price of $4.48 per dozen plus a provision of $0.60 cents per dozen for packaging, packing and transport, resulted in a theoretical price of $5.08 per dozen delivered to CDs. The average four-region advertised promotional retail price of $7.99 per dozen corresponds to a theoretical average retail margin of 57.2 percent (-16.4 percent last month for Large C-F brown) but with few promotions offered by limited number of stores featuring cage-free eggs. Margins are presumed higher for non-featured eggs including pastured and other specialty eggs at shelf prices attaining in excess of $9.00 per dozen in high-end supermarket chains. Retailers maximizing margins especially on Certified Organic, free-range and pastured categories restrict the volume of sales, ultimately disadvantageous to producers.

The volume of exports of shell eggs is conditioned by the domestic needs of importers, price against competitors and regulatory disease and logistic restraints. Imports are determined by domestic needs with reduced supply due to flock depopulation as the principal driving factor.

USDA-FAS data reflecting volume of exports for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing 2024 with 2025:-

                           U.S. EXPORTS OF SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCTS DURING

                                     JANUARY-MARCH 2024 COMPARED WITH 2024

Due to a deficiency in domestic supply relative to demand, importation during January through March 2025 amounted to 25.5 million shell-equivalent dozens. Monthly totals amounted to 2.1 million in January, 11.5 million in February and 11.9 million in March. For the quarter, imports expressed as a percentage of the total, comprised shell eggs, 58.6; egg liquids, 9.8 and dried egg, 31.6. Total egg imports during calendar 2025 are projected by the USDA to attain 32 million dozen shell equivalents suggesting restoration of supply as 78 percent of the calculated total was imported during the first quarter of 2025. Naturally if HPAI emerges in the fall flock depopulation will resume and the U.S. will revert to the situation that prevailed in late 2024 extending into 2025.

During April 2025 Brazil claimed to have exported 3.9 million dozen eggs to the U.S. valued at $6.3 million representing an extremely low FOB unit price of $1.57 per dozen.

Given the export of 35.8 million dozen shell equivalents over the first quarter of 2025 net exports attained 10.3 million dozen shell equivalents

The trade situation will be influenced during the second quarter of 2025 if tariffs are imposed by the U.S. with the inevitability of reciprocal action by importing nations. Since supply will hopefully improve in volume, imports will be curtailed with an expectation of higher exports consistent with more competitive prices.

Data released by USDA in the Egg Markets Overview reflecting April 1, 2025, confirmed growth in cage-free production by 23.7 percent since 2015 with a corresponding decline of 37.2 percent in the U.S. caged flock.  Over the period 2015 through 2025, caged hens declined in number from 256.1 million to 160.8 million.  Concurrently, the cage-free flock increased from 37.3 million hens to 125.7 million.  Total hens in production showed a 2.1 percent decline from 293 million to 287 million over the period mainly due to the ongoing HPAI epornitic.  In 2015, cage-free hens represented 12.7 percent of hens in production but increased to 43.9 percent in April 2025. Over the past five-years, cage-free hens increased by 13.3 percent and caged hens decreased by 36.4 percent.

In reviewing the non-organic cage-free population, barn and aviary-housed hens increased by 299.6 percent from 22.5 million to 89.9 million.  Free-range housing increased from 1.5 million by 420 percent to 7.8 million hens.  In the high-value pastured category, there were 2.0 million hens in 2015 increasing by 280 percent to 7.6 million at the beginning of April 2025.  Clearly the three major categories of cage-free, non-organic production moved upwards as caged hens declined in number but with a relatively higher rate of growth than the caged category impacted disproportionately by HPAI.

During the first three months of April 2025, depopulation due to HPAI attained 19.6 million caged hens or 6.9 percent of the productive flock compared to 11 million cage-free (all categories except organic) or 3.9 percent of the producing flock.  Losses in certified organic flocks were proportionately lower at 26,000 hens or less than 0.1 percent of the productive flock.

The relative impact of increased demand for cage-free eggs due to state mandates and commitments by retailers and restaurants is shown in the table below:

In reviewing trends in organic production, the total number of hens in this category increased 80.5 percent from 2015 through April 2025 from 11.3 million to 20.4 million encompassing the three major categories of certified organic production. Barn-housed hens increased by 40.0 percent from 9.0 million to 12.6 million.  Free-range increased by 164.7 percent from 1.7 million to 4.5 million.  The pastured organic category, increased by 371 percent from a small base of 700,000 hens to 3.3 million. There was an evident plateau at 2.7 million from 2020 through 2022 followed by increases in 2023 and 2024.

The rate of lay among cage-free flocks increased from 287 eggs per hen in 2015 representing an average of 78.6 percent hen-day production to 310 eggs per hen in 2025 equivalent to an average of 84.9 percent hen day production.  This eight percent increase reflects improved equipment and housing and more appropriate management with special emphasis on compatibility between rearing and laying systems, selecting correct levels of lighting, and training of flocks before and after transfer.

Big Dutchman has acquired extensive experience in the design and operation of floor systems in the E.U. and in North America. With the expansion of barn, free-range and pasture housing the flexibility of the Natura® Step aviaries and the Colony 2+ system contribute to optimal performance and return on investment. 

Colony 2+ installations incorporate patented communal (group) laying nests and plastic slats increasing the salable eggs from a flock.  The Natura® Step system is compatible with either a barn installation or for housing a flock with daytime outside access during dark hours. Both systems have features that limit downgrades from soiled shells and cracks.  This is an important consideration given the average negotiated value of $7.54 per dozen for cage-free eggs over the first quarter of 2025.

Colony 2+ nests reduce labor requirements on contractor-operated farms. The nests offer a secure environment for hens reducing floor-laying to a fraction of one percent in flocks that are reared appropriately and acclimated to their laying environment after transfer.  The Colony 2+ nest incorporates a floor that tilts to 90 degrees during the dark period of the day or at preset intervals to exclude brooding hens and prevent soiling the plastic mat that is self-cleaning with each cycle of rotation.  The patented divided nest floor is initially raised in the center at the beginning of closing cycle allowing gentle roll-out onto the centrally-placed egg belt. The system incorporates belts located in the center of the nest bank with a short roll-out distance protecting shells from damage.  Colony 2+ systems can be supplied with either a gable roof with full-length open ventilation or a flat surface to increase available house area to maximize flock size in compliance with U.S. welfare standards.

The Natura® Step aviary installations can be retrofitted to existing houses or incorporated into the design of new barns.  The Step concept is based on strategically placed platforms that allow hens to move easily among tiers compliant with both E.U. and U.S. welfare requirements.  The Step configuration of tiers, together with platforms allow hens to alight and turn for ease of access when moving up or down the installation.

Big Dutchman Natura® Step aviaries were specified for the innovative prestige Kipster complex operated by MPS Egg Farms Inc. located in North Manchester, IN.  This farm comprising four units each housing 24,000 hens incorporates Big Dutchman Natura® Step aviaries installed in two rows on either side of a central floor area.  After two years of operation, the entire system conforming to U.S. welfare requirements has functioned according to specifications and is producing quality eggs sold at a premium in Kroger stores.   

Big Dutchman supplies feeding, watering, lighting and ventilation systems complementary to Natura® Step and Colony2+ systems to ensure optimal operation and production.  Big Dutchman systems are durable and are recognized for their prolonged working life.  Frames for Colony 2+ nests and Natura® aviaries are constructed of powder-coated steel and legs are fabricated from stainless steel.  Plastic slats are fabricated from virgin material that resist deterioration over time.  Nests are fabricated from laminated wood with a durable waterproof coating.  All sheet metal components are powder-coated over galvanized surfaces.

Big Dutchman, through its appointed distributors, can provide design layouts for retrofits and new houses.  Big Dutchman technical specialists are available to provide guidance for new and exiting producers for flock management, maintenance to optimize return on investment.

OVERVIEW

The USDA provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans in the May12^thWorld Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) #660, reflecting the 2025 crop. Production values for corn and soybeans were updated from previous edition. Projections of crop size and ending stocks are derived from acreage to be planted, recent annual crop yields and with the latest assumptions relating to domestic use and tariff policy influencing exports.

The May 12^th WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop will be harvested from an expanded 87.4 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop will be harvested from a reduced 82.7 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The May WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was predicted at 181.0 bushels per acre. By comparison yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The projected value for soybean yield was an optimistic 52.5 bushels per acre compared to 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous crop.

The May USDA projection for the ending stock of corn was 2024 to 1,800 million bushels. The May USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was 295 million bushels.

The May 2024 WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 420 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was 1,025 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was projected to be $310 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest stable to lower feed costs for livestock and poultry producers. Row crop farmers will experience declining margins. In some areas corn will be below break-even given relative production costs and per bushel prices. It is probable that high support prices will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the May 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also evaluated the likely impacts from the transition to a La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for export will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation has sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the previous and current market year.

CORN

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop, estimated yield and acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 15,820 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was estimated at 5,900 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,385 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was held at 5,500 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs. Projected corn exports were predicted to attain 2,675 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 1,800 million bushels or 10.4 percent of projected availability.

The forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the May WASDE report covering the 2025 crop was 420 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on March 13^th after the noon release of the WASDE the previous day, the CME spot price for corn was 440 cents per bushel, up 4.8 percent from the USDA May projection.

MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 420 cents per bushel.

SOYBEANS

Influenced by harvest data for the 2024 corn crop and an estimated yield of 52.5 bushels per acre but with reduced acreage to be planted, the May WASDE Report projected the soybean crop to be 4,340 million bushels harvested. Crush volume was projected at 2,490 million bushels despite increased industry capacity. Projected exports were predicted to be 1,815 million bushels notwithstanding the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 295 million bushels, down 22.3 percent from the December WASDE report reflecting the 2024-2025 season. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The USDA WASDE May projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans for the 2025 harvest was 1,025 cents per bushel. At 13H00 EDT on May 13^th following release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,072 cents per bushel, 4.6 percent above the May USDA projection.

May 2025 WASDE #660 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,025 cents per bushel

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected production of soybean meal from the 2025 soybean crop will be 58.7 million tons, consistent with the soybean crush volume of 2,490 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41,325 million tons. Exports were estimated at 18.0 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $310 is unchanged since the February WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At 13H00 EDT on February 13^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $293 per ton, down 5.5 percent compared to the May WASDE projection of $310 per ton.

 MAY 2025 WASDE #660 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:$310 per ton

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower feed production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic yield, use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the May 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“The 2025/26 global coarse grain outlook is for record production and consumption and a decline in ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to rise to a record 1.265 billion metric tons, with the largest increases for the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina. Partly offsetting are smaller crops projected for Tanzania and Canada. Larger area expectations drive an increase in corn production for Argentina, while a return to trend yield and higher area boosts production prospects for Ukraine. For Brazil, expansion in corn area drives larger crop prospects. World barley, sorghum, millet, mixed grain, and rye production are forecast higher than a year ago, while oat production is down slightly”.

“World corn consumption is expected to rise two percent to a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with consumption exceeding production for the second consecutive year. World corn imports are forecast to rise one percent, driven by increases for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the EU, Venezuela, and Iran. Partly offsetting are declines for Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Turkey”.

“Global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are down 9.5 million tons to 277.8 million tons which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. For 2025/26, stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are projected to rise, mostly reflecting an increase for the United States partly offset by a decline for Brazil.

For China, total coarse grain imports for 2025/26 are forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 6.5 million from a year ago but below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. Corn imports are projected up 2.0 million tons to 10.0 million, while sorghum is up 4.0 million to 8.5 million. Barley imports are up 0.5 million”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global 2025/26 soybean crush is growing three percent to 366.5 million tons, with most of the growth for China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Overall, the highest growth in oilseed meal exports is soybean meal for the United States and Argentina and sunflower seed meal for Ukraine. Global vegetable oil exports are rising three percent on higher palm oil exports for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand and higher sunflower seed oil exports for Ukraine and Turkey. Global vegetable oil stocks are flat with the prior year”.

“Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are expected to increase four percent to 188.4 million tons from 2024/25. Exports of major South American soybean-producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) are expected to rise 8.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are increased for Argentina on higher supplies in neighboring countries and in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria. Soybean imports for China are up 4 million tons the revised 2024/25 import forecast at 112 million. Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by lower U.S. stocks”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

(1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)