Heavens be praised-relief is at hand! The USDA-APHIS will soon have available 2025 calendars with tips on biosecurity. This is a self-delusional exercise in rearranging deck-chairs on the Titanic.

For the edification of those deciding on policy we have lost 37 million hens in 2024 in addition to approximately 3 million turkeys and 5 million broilers with their breeders. It is evident that H5N1 HPAI is endemic in the U.S., is disseminated seasonally by millions of migratory birds and is spread over short distances by the aerogenous route. Power ventilated egg-production complexes are therefore highly vulnerable. Not even the most extreme and efficient structural and operational biosecurity will provide absolute protection in high-risk areas.

The USDA-APHIS has failed stakeholders in the egg and turkey industries who have experienced unprecedented losses and the consumers paying $6 and more per dozen for conventional eggs.  We have not received a report from APHIS based on sound epidemiologic studies since backdated 2023 superficial publications on risk factors in turkey and layer flocks relating to the 2022 phase of the ongoing epornitic.

Segments of he industry need vaccination now! Turkeys, replacement pullets and even mature laying flocks should be protected in high-risk areas. Discussion with APHIS personnel confirms a determination to continue a policy of attempting to eradicate endemic HPAI by  “stamping out” infected flocks ad seriatum. Results show this to be a Sisyphean approach. The reluctance to apply limited strategic vaccination is difficult to comprehend. This may be attributed to:-

• An institutional reluctance to admit that past policy and decisions were wrong
• Overt pressure by a segment of the industry to preserve exports at the expense of consumers and producers of eggs, ducks and turkeys
• A prevailing APHIS mindset that vaccination would be more expensive than depopulation. If this is the case then APHIS should make public their scientific and economic studies. We can then all evaluate the logic and assumptions underlying this doubtful justification to withhold vaccination as an adjunct to existing control measures
• And then it may be that some in positions of authority believe that the infection will just bun out as it did in 2015 albeit with a different strain

The 600 lb. gorilla in the corner is the possibility of a series of additional mutations in circulating H5N1 to become more zoonotic and pathogenic or even contagious as feared by virologists and epidemiologists worldwide. This is acknowledged to be a rare possibility but with extreme consequences. The more susceptible two to four million complexes we have and the inevitability of exposure, the greater will be the possibility of a more zoonotic strain emerging, especially with unprotected and susceptible workers involved in depopulation. Adaptation to mammals with contagion was evident in marine mammals along the Pacific littoral and in Antarctica---and then there have been 675 confirmed dairy herds in California.

This is wake-up time, sophistry and posturing have the makings of a slow-motion train wreck. The infection is not controlled. APHIS should accept reality and recognize the zoonotic potential of H5N1 considered by the WHO as the most likely emerging pandemic strain of human influenza.

The industry needs limited, strategic and controlled flock immunization applying commercially available vaccines now.  France has shown this approach to be feasible and effective.

REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2024 EGG PRODUCTION COSTS AND STATISTICS.

This update of U.S egg-production statistics, costs and prices is sponsored by Big Dutchman USA for the information of stakeholders

DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS

• December 2024 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 424 cents per dozen, up 60 cents per dozen or 16.4 percent from the November 2024 value of 364 cents per dozen. The corresponding December 2022 and 2023 values were respectively $4.37 and $1.56 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146.0 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen for 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted due to HPAI. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price discovery system in use. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has emerged as a major driver with seasonal migration of waterfowl. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to 4 million during January to date.
• December 2024 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was almost unchanged from November at 74.4 cents per dozen. The December average nest run production cost for other than caged hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.4 cents per dozen. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic price as delivered to warehouses.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 349.6 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 290.0 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2023 was 64.2 cents per dozen compared to 155 cents per dozen in 2022.
• December 2024 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 673 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 361 cents per dozen in November 2024. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023.

• The November 2024 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be down 0.4 million hens (rounded and a probable over-count) to 311.3 million compared to the revised October 2024 value of 311.7 million. Approximately 3.0 million hens returned to production from molt in November together with projected maturation of 21.5 million pullets, with this number offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens.
• November 2024 pullet chick hatch of 24.4 million was down 11.3 percent or 3.1 million chicks from October 2024.
• November 2024 exports of shell eggs and products combined were down 19.6 percent from October 2024 to 325,000 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 4.3 million hens. Canada and the Caribbean nations represented 95 percent of shell egg exports of 181,000 dozen. Japan, Canada and Mexico represented 72 percent of exports of egg products amounting to 144,000 case equivalents. Volumes shipped are based on the needs of importers, competition, availability in the U.S. and FOB price offered.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR DECEMBER 2024.

Summary tables for the latest USDA December 2024 flock statistics, costs and unit prices made available by the EIC on January 9^th 2025 are arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous December 9^th 2024 release reflecting November 2024 costs and production data as applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY

*USDA Revised

• Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2024¹

Based on a nominal denominator of 290 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1%

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 81.8% November 2024. 82.2% December 2024

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook December 16^th 2024 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF DECEMBER 2024:

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES) October 2024, 6.91* November 2024, 6.57

EXPORTS NOVEMBER 2024: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.5 percent of National production in November 2024 (1.9 percent in October 2024).

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes: 1. Excludes SW and West *USDA revised

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting DECEMBER 2024:-

424.0 cents per dozen¹- 74.4 cents per dozen =349.6 cents per dozen (November 2024 comparison: 364.0 cents per dozen – 74.0 cents per dozen = 290.0 cents per dozen.

Note 1: USDA Blended nest-run egg price

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

* USDA Revised

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for DECEMBER 2024:-

Cage-Free brown 766.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.4 cents per dozen = 672.6 cents per dozen

November 2024 455.0 cents per dozen - 93.4 cents per dozen = 361.6 cents per dozen

1. 
   Contract price, nest-run loose Range 135 to 235 c/doz. unchanged since July and unrealistic.
2. Range $1.65 to $3.35 per dozen
3. Unrealistic USDA prices!

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes Organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

Regular editions of EGG-NEWS and CHICK-NEWS will suspend publication at the beginning of 2025. This reality after twelve years of operation is a personal decision to create opportunities for new challenges.

It is hoped that the commentaries, news, editorials and statistical reviews have educated subscribers and readers and stimulated thought and discussion. If the interests of the industry and the wellbeing of their companies and operations have been advanced then the enterprise and efforts have been worthwhile.

Gratitude is extended to sponsors who have made the newsletters possible and provided encouragement over the years. They are all worthy of continued support through their equipment, products and services.

In coming months EGG-NEWS and CHICK-NEWS will circulate focus editions based on innovative products and technology in written and alternative formats to continue the tradition of independent reporting, commentary and advocacy.

BioChek extends an invitation to poultry health professionals to a lunch symposium on aMPV during the IPPE. The event will be presented on Wednesday January 29th at noon in Room B301.

Jantina de Vylder, Business Unit Manager for Poultry will review aMPV and the application of the Biochek ELISA test system to monitor flocks for antibody level. Topics to be reviewed include:   Detection of antibodies against aMPV subtypes A, B and C High sensitivity of the BioChek ART-ELISA Application for both turkey and chicken sera  Absence of cross-reactivity with other pathogens denoting high specificity

Kindly confirm your reservation to facilitate lunch catering by phoning BioChekat (207) 809-9509.

For additional information on the range of BioChek ELISA and PCR test kits access <https://www.biochek.com/biochek-lunch-symposium-spotlight-on-ampv/>

Orka Food Technology will present live demonstrations of analytical instruments to measure egg  quality on Booth A1236 during the 2025 IPPE. Displays will feature:-

• The recently upgraded Orka Egg Tester Ultimate® that measures Haugh units, eggshell thickness, calculates USDA Grade, records egg weight and quantifies yolk color with electronic recording and database retrieval.
• The Wireless Egg® that remotely monitors the correct operation of collection and conveying systems to identify stress points that contribute to shell damage and downgrades.

For additional technical information in advance of the IPPE access info@orkatech.com

Hotraco Agri now a subsidiary of Munters will feature three innovations at the IPPE.  Hotraco technical representatives will be available on Booth B18042 to demonstrate systems and to review tailored applications for farms.

Products to be featured are:

Fortica MAX – This installation incorporates updated software and a 12-inch touchscreen to manage all electrical components in a house to enhance productivity.
Egg Flow Control – The Hotraco Agri Egg Flow Control system operates with the Antares Egg  Controller to synchronize egg flow by adjusting belt speeds to reduce shell damage.  The system provides real-time data on egg production with 99.5 percent accuracy.

• iHotraco Farm Manager – The Farm Manager system offers continual monitoring of all houses on a complex with a single dashboard to provide instant visualization of ventilation, feed and water consumption.  The system can  be tailored for specific operations and can monitor individual houses, a complete complex or multiple locations for effective management and profitability.

A combination of Hotraco Agri with parent company Munters allows seamless application of hardware and digital solutions.  Munters ventilation installations will be available for review on their Booth B26033.