Subscribers are directed to the recent ProPublica article on highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).  The incisive report was based on interviews with prominent poultry health professionals and incorporated an analysis of available redacted epidemiologic data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.

EGG-NEWS has long maintained that HPAI can be introduced onto farms by virus entrained on windborne dust and dander thereby invalidating even the most extreme structural and operational biosecurity.

USDA policy appears to be predicated on two principles:

• That the use of vaccination against HPAI in high-risk areas for egg production flocks would result in the collapse of U.S. exports.  This contention is supported by a well-organized lobby exerting pressure on the USDA through the Congressional broiler caucus.  Accordingly, pseudo-scientific arguments are advanced deprecating vaccination which has proven to be an effective method of prevention when combined with high levels of biosecurity.  The USDA should have predicted the persistence and severity of HPAI and actively engaged with trading partners to accept limited and controlled vaccination with appropriate surveillance following the principles of the World Organization of Animal Health.

• The USDA has studiously avoided conducting meaningful epidemiologic studies that may initially have confirmed that the infection was endemic with seasonal dissemination of virus by migratory and now resident free-living birds.  It would appear that the USDA functions with the earnest hope that the infection will simply “go away” as it did at the end of the 2015 epornitic.  Unfortunately, this presumption has been disproved by the ongoing seasonal epornitic since 2022.  Despite having qualified personnel and financial resources USDA has failed to conduct meaningful epidemiologic studies to identify risk factors and to establish that the infection can be transmitted by wind as has been documented in a number of peer-reviewed articles. Collectively the literature advances evidence of aerogenous transmission and the effectiveness of controlled vaccination.

The USDA conducted superficial epidemiologic studies in 2022 involving telephone surveys using a standard format administered months after outbreaks.  All that emerged from the inadequate investigations was that proximity to free standing water and wetlands and the presence of wild birds were risk factors.

Absent a clear policy on vaccination and reliance on the obviously imperfect protection afford by biosecurity, the U.S. industry will be confronted with ongoing seasonal outbreaks.

The longer that the epornitic persist, the greater will be the risk of emergence of a zoonotic strain of avian influenza.  Mutations in the genome of  Clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza virus strain H5N1 have occurred resulting in infection of dairy herds and marine mammals.  The World Health Organization regards avian influenza as a potential pandemic virus and accordingly the greater the efficiency of suppression infection through vaccination, the lower will be the risk of a significant public health concern.

If all costs as a result of infection are takin into consideration, agriculture economists guiding policymakers should not only consider the expense of depopulation and indemnity but should include the cost to consumers. Escalation in the price of eggs occurs following seasonal outbreaks due to a disturbance in the supply to demand equilibrium.  Costs to consumers should reflect consumption of seven billion dozen in shell and liquid form annually. Escalation in wholesale and shelf prices over seasonal values as a result of HPAI have amounted to $2 to $4 per dozen for extensive periods since 2022.

The so-called multipronged program to combat HPAI announced by secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins is at best more of the same and at worst a delaying tactic. Facile and unhelpful comments by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.  Secretary of Health and Human Services to simply allow infected flocks to die in the hope of establishing resistant strain among the five percent survivors of an outbreak belies the reality that commercial chickens are hybrids. In any event failure to control HPAI by USDA would absolutely result in a termination of exports.

If the USDA knuckles down to reality and accepts scientific fact and refrains from sophistic misinterpretation of the literature to suit a non-vaccination policy the industry would be more secure and all stakeholders would benefit.  There is apparently a draft policy on vaccination that has had limited circulation but neither the UEP nor the AVEP, representing poultry health professionals has received a copy for comment.

The bottom line for the USDA is that H5 HPAI is endemic, is carried by migratory birds, is disseminated among other routes by air movement and is potentially zoonotic.  Further intransigence cannot be tolerated since a windborne endemic disease with seasonal reintroduction of virus by wild birds cannot be eradicated. By depopulation. The USDA and those opposing avian influenza vaccination should recognize that HPAI is effectively “the Newcastle disease of the 2020s”.  This infection was effectively suppressed, controlled and effectively eradicated in commercial poultry production worldwide through application of vaccination.

Dr. Clovis Rayzel, president and CEO of Big Dutchman Inc. will retire at the end of 2025 after 28 years with the company.  He has extensive experience in field production of poultry and hogs  in the Americas, Europe and Asia where he has been involved in international marketing and sales.

During the transition to his retirement, EGG-NEWS had the opportunity to review his career and share his views on current events and future trends in the egg industry for the benefit of subscribers.

EGG-NEWS:  Clovis, please describe your background and training.

CR:  I graduated from the University of Santa Catarina, Brazil with a doctoral degree in Veterinary Medicine in 1985.  Thereafter I undertook graduate studies through the International Agricultural Center in Wageningen, the Netherlands in 1993 and completed a Master of Science in Animal Production at South Dakota State University in 1995.  My formal training was supplemented by extensive interaction with the industry through attendance at national and international meetings, tradeshows and frequent travel on four continents

EGG-NEWS:  Your early career involved direct contact with farmers, flocks and herds. Please expand on your activities.

CR:  From 1986 through 1997 I functioned as a Field Service Veterinarian advising members of two major cooperatives in Santa Catarina State. Advancing to the Cooperativa Central Aurora in Chapeco SC, I served as the Department Manager for Animal Nutrition and Feed Production.  This cooperative incorporated sixteen affiliate groups with over 5,000 employees processing six million broilers and 100,000 hogs annually.

EGG-NEWS:  When did you join Big Dutchman?

CR:  In 1997 I was appointed as Sales and Marketing Manager for Latin America based in St. Peterburg, FL.  This position required extensive travel among nations in Central and South America, participating in the expansion of poultry and swine industries in both developing and developed regions.

EGG-NEWS:  When did you move to Michigan?

CR:  With my August 2001 appointment as Vice-president, International Sales and Marketing. Subsequently in 2005 I was appointed as president and CEO of Big Dutchman Inc. with responsibilities for Canada, the U.S., Latin America and Caribbean.  Currently Big Dutchman AG., the parent company, has a presence in over 100 nations designing and manufacturing equipment and systems for poultry and swine with affiliates in plant production and agricultural technology for sustainability and productivity.

EGG-NEWS:  Please describe some of your accomplishments in your position as president and CEO.

CR:  We have built a strong team that has contributed to the success of the egg industry in regions of my responsibility. We have a strong distributor network to support expansion and retrofits, and are fully prepared to interact directly with farmers when that is the preference. I believe we are the leaders in technology required for the transition from conventional cages to alternative systems including both aviaries and barn housing.

EGG-NEWS:  Kindly share your appraisal of the U.S. egg industry including growth prospects and trends in housing and equipment.

CR:  The key consideration will be the rate of expansion in relation to profitability and return on investment.  The trajectory of implementing alternative systems appears to be slowing after the rapid transition over the past decade.  The industry appears to have bifurcated with aviary systems for large in-line complexes and barn housing with or without outside access for both vertical and horizontal integration.  We have witnessed the emergence and expansion of companies supplied by independent contractors specializing in packing and marketing.  In some respects, the barn segment of the U.S. model is paralleling traditional systems in the EU.

EGG-NEWS:  Do you foresee major changes in housing systems over the next five years?

CR:  Big Dutchman has been a leader in innovation among alternative systems with true aviaries that optimize both production and welfare.  Currently production parameters in aviaries are approaching cage housing with respect to egg production, livability, and feed consumption. There is still a positive differential in revenue for cage-free eggs that offsets higher labor and feed costs for non-confined housing. Irrespective of systems, Big Dutchman is allowing producers to optimize genetic potential of brown and white-feathered strains through appropriate design, project implementation and after-sales guidance and service,

EGG-NEWS:  Do you foresee continued use of cages?

CR:  Undoubtedly markets will support confined housing for a significant proportion of the national flock.  We continue to deliver enrichable cages that can be converted at some later time to enriched modules.  It is possible that the industry under coercion and pressure by animal rights groups adopted aviaries and floor systems during the 2010s. to the exclusion of colony modules. For a variety of reasons the Industry rejected enriched modules that were in fact accepted in principle by HSUS under the abandoned “Egg Bill” that would have established a national housing standard.  In an environment characterized by uncertainty as a result of litigation and lobbying, the industry must exercise flexibility.  In response to the needs of the industry Big Dutchman offers a comprehensive range of alternatives to support producers.

EGG-NEWS:  Do you have any messages for the industry?

CR:  Be aware of consumer needs and respond appropriately, be it welfare, technology or other aspects of housing.  Avian influenza has become a major factor in determining price and profitability.  It is evident that the infection is endemic throughout the world’s poultry populations, will persist and that biosecurity alone does not provide absolute protection.  Alternative  modalities including vaccination will be necessary to maintain productivity.  The egg industry should continue to stress nutritional value and should strive to achieve uniformly high quality with freedom from foodborne infection.

EGG-NEWS:  What are your plans for retirement?

CR:  I will remain in contact with the industry and will serve as a consultant to Big Dutchman sharing my experience and contacts on this and other continents.

EGG-NEWS:  Thank you Clovis and wishing you well in the coming years.

This update of U.S egg-production costs and prices is provided for the information of producers and stakeholders. Statistical data was unavailable due to the Federal shutdown. Updates will hopefully be available for inclusion in the December edition. September values for production and October cost and  price updates provided by the EIC are included in this review

OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS

• October 2025 USDA ex-farm blended USDA nest-run, benchmark price for conventional eggs from caged hens was 117 cents per dozen, down 58 cents per dozen or 33.1 percent from the September 2025 value of 175 cents per dozen. The corresponding October 2023 and 2024 values were respectively $0.80 and $2.87 cents per dozen. For annual comparison, average monthly USDA benchmark price over 2023 was 146 cents per dozen compared to 247 cents per dozen covering 2024. Stock levels and prices prior to the onset of flock depletions due to HPAI indicated a relative seasonal balance between supply and demand. Future nest-run and wholesale prices will be largely dependent on consumer demand for shell eggs and products, as determined by the economy, supply as influenced by re-emergence of HPAI, net imports and the rate of replacement of pullets and hens depleted. Other considerations include diversion to shell sales from the egg-breaking sector in an interconnected industry. Imports declined sharply during the past quarter although the U.S. ran a negative trade balance through July.
• October 2025 USDA ex-farm negotiated USDA nest-run, benchmark price for all categories of cage-free eggs was 134 cents per dozen, down 13 cents per dozen or 8.8 percent from the September 2025 value of 147 cents per dozen. The corresponding October 2023 and 2024 values were respectively 120 and 208 cents per dozen.
• Fluctuation in wholesale price is attributed in part to the amplification of upward and downward swings associated with the commercial benchmark price-discovery system in use. An important factor influencing pricing is the proportion of shell eggs supplied under cost-plus contracts accentuating the upward and downward price trajectory of uncommitted eggs as determined by the price discovery system. Highly pathogenic avian influenza was the major driver of price in 2024 and through Q1 of 2025 due to the high incidence rate. Approximately 40 million hens and at least 2.0 million pullets were depleted in 2024 with close to an additional 36 million birds, (hens and pullets) in 35 complexes or farms through mid-May 2025. The Fall 2025 losses involved two complexes of 3.1 million hens in late September and 2.0 million in early October.
• October 2025 USDA average nest-run production cost for conventional eggs from caged flocks over four regions (excluding SW and West), applying updated inputs was 73.8 cents per dozen, down 0.8 cents from September 2025 at 73.8 cents per dozen. The October average nest run production cost for other than caged and certified organic hens was estimated by the EIC to be 93.1 cents per dozen down 0.8 cent per dozen from September. Approximately 60 cents per dozen should be added to the USDA benchmark nest-run costs to cover processing, packing material and transport to establish a realistic cost value as delivered to warehouses.
• October 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for conventional eggs attained a positive value of 43.2 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 100.4 cents per dozen in September 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 271.0 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin for 2024 was 170.8 cents per dozen compared to 64.2 cents per dozen in 2023 and 155 cents in 2022.
• October 2025 USDA benchmark nest-run margin for all categories of cage-free eggs attained a positive value of 40.9 cents per dozen compared to a positive margin of 53.1 cents per dozen in September 2025. Year to date the average monthly nest-run production margin has attained 321.1 cents per dozen. Average nest-run monthly margin over 2024 was 440 cents per dozen compared with 100 cents per dozen in 2023, relatively unaffected by HPAI compared to the preceding and following years.

Since data for October production and September exports was unavailable as of mid-November values for the most recent reported month of August are retained in the following paragraphs.

• The August 2025 national flock (over 30,000 hens per farm) was stated by the USDA to be up by 6.6 million hens (rounded, and a probable undercount) to 285.9 million compared to approximately 326 million before the advent of the H5N1 epornitic of HPAI in 2022. Approximately 3.5 million hens returned to production from molt during the month together with projected maturation of 23 million pullets, with the total offset by depletion of an unknown number of spent hens. On October 8^th USDA estimated the total U.S table-egg production flock at 304.5 million with 298.1 million actually in production.
• August 2025 pullet chick hatch of 28.7 million was down 0.4 million (-1.4 percent) from July 2025 but inconsistent with an increased industry need to replace depopulated flocks.
• August September export data will be released after resumption of Federal activities. In July 2025 exports of shell eggs and products combined were up 27.1 percent from June 2025 to 376,600 case equivalents representing the theoretical production of 5.6 million hens. Shell egg exports totaling 72,000 cases were dominated by Canada (38 percent of volume) the “Rest of Americas” including the Caribbean (40 percent). With respect to 304,000 case equivalents of egg products, importers comprised Canada (32 percent of volume), “Rest of Americas and the EU (each 20 percent), Japan, (12 percent), Mexico, (8 percent) collectively representing 98 percent of shipments. Volumes exported are based on the needs of importers, competing suppliers, availability in the U.S. and FOB prices offered.          
• According to the USDA Egg Market Overview released on September 8^th, all egg imports (shell, liquid and dry) in July attained 19.5 million dozen shell equivalents compared to exports of all categories of 11.2 million dozen shell equivalents.
• For 2025 through July the negative trade balance in all shell and derived egg products attained 15.5 million dozen shell equivalents.

TABLES SHOWING KEY PARAMETERS FOR SEPTEMBER 2025.

Summary tables for the latest USDA October 2025 costs and unit prices were made available by the EIC on November 7^th 2025. Data is arranged, summarized, tabulated and compared with values from the previous October 13^th 2025 release reflecting September 2025 costs and production data, as revised and applicable. Monthly comparisons of production data and costs are based on revised USDA and EIC values.

VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION REFLECTING THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY                                                                                   

*USDA data unavailable  1. From USDA Weekly Shell-egg Demand Indicator

*Revised USDA/EIC Note 1. Texas excluded to maintain confidentiality

PROPORTION OF U.S. TOTAL HENS BY STATE, 2025                                                                   

Based on a nominal denominator of 285 million hens in flocks over 30,000 covering 95 percent of the U.S complement.

USDA has amended inclusion of specific states in regions and eliminated Texas data to protect confidentiality of Company flock

Sizes

1. Values rounded to 0.1% 

Rate of Lay, weighted hen-month (USDA)   81.5 September 2025.          % October 2025

*Revised USDA

*Revised, using data from USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook September 18^th 2025 taking into account demand from the food service sector and presumably including the effect of HPAI depopulation and net importation.

EGG INVENTORIES AT BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER 2025:

1. USDA Shell-egg Demand Indicator. November 12^th.

EGGS BROKEN UNDER FSIS INSPECTION (MILLION CASES)                                                                                   AUGUST 2025, 7.03     SEPTEMBER 2025,           

Export and import data for August was not released due to Federal shutdown.

EXPORTS JULY 2025: (Expressed as shell-equivalent cases of 360 eggs).

*Representing 1.8 percent of National production in JULY 2025 (0.4% shell, 1.4% products).                    

COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE VALUES¹ FOR CONVENTIONAL EGGS FROM CAGED HENS

Notes:   1. Excludes SW and West 

Components of Production cost per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to nearest cent) according to USDA values reflecting OCTOBER 2025:-

                                                        117.0 cents per dozen¹- 73.8 cents per dozen = 43.2 cents per dozen         (September 2025 comparison:         175.0 cents per dozen – 74.6 cents per dozen  = 100.4 cents per dozen.

Note 1:  USDA Blended nest-run egg price

1. Unrealistic USDA values based on advertised promotional prices with few participating stores, non-representative of shelf prices!

AVERAGE COSTS AND UNIT REVENUE FOR EGGS FROM CAGE-FREE HENS

Components of Production cost for cage-free eggs, per dozen:-

Ex Farm Margin (rounded to cent) according to USDA values reflecting negotiated price for OCTOBER 2025:-

Cage-Free brown     134.0 cents per dozen¹- 93.1 cents per dozen =  40.9 cents per dozen

September 2025:-    147.0 cents per dozen -  93.9 cents per dozen =  53.1 cents per dozen  

 1.       Contract price, nest-run loose. Range 155 to 210 c/doz. Negligible change since July 2024 and totally unrealistic.

1. Negotiated price, loose. Range $1.20 to $2.60 per dozen
2. Estimate based on prevailing costs
3. Unrealistic USDA values based on promotional prices with few participating stores and non-representative of shelf prices

Cage-Free HPAI losses 2.0 million during October on WA complex

* Conventional (non-organic) feed

Feed prices used are the average national and regional values for caged flocks. Excludes organic feeds with prices substantially higher than conventional.

OVERVIEW

The USDA was unable to release the October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) due to the Federal shutdown. The Agency is to be commended on producing the current edition within days of resuming activities. WASDE #665 provided updated projections for the production of corn and soybeans from the September 12^th WASDE #664, reflecting the 2025 crop. Determination of crop size and ending stocks is derived from actual harvest data, projections for domestic use and the effect of tariff policy and competition that influence export volumes

The November WASDE report confirmed that the 2025 corn crop was harvested from an expanded 90.0 million acres, (82.7 million acres in 2024). The soybean crop was harvested from a reduced 80.3 million acres, (86.3 million acres in 2024).

The November WASDE yield value for the 2025 corn crop was estimated at 186.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 percent from 186.7 bushels per acre predicted in September. By comparison corn yield was 183.1 bushels per acre in 2024. The estimated value for soybean yield was 53.0 bushels per acre down 0.5 percent from the September value of 53.6 bushels per acre. By comparison soybean yield was 51.7 bushels per acre for the previous 2024 crop.

The November WASDE projection for the ending stock of corn was increased by 2.1 percent from September to 2,154 million bushels. The November USDA projection for the ending stock of soybeans was down 3.4 percent from September to 290 million bushels consistent with lower supply and exports.

The November WASDE projected the corn price for the 2025-2026 market year at an average of 400 cents per bushel. The projected average season price for soybeans was increased to 1,050 cents per bushel. The price of soybean meal was raised $20 per ton from September to $300 per ton. USDA commodity prices suggest higher feed costs for livestock and poultry producers especially if promised exports materialize. Row crop farmers including corn growers will benefit from increased prices. In some areas corn will however be below break-even given relative yields, production costs and per bushel prices. It is inevitable that extensive support will be required if importing nations respond negatively to tariffs proposed by the Administration.

Projections for world output included in the November 2025 WASDE report, reflect the most recent estimates for the production and export of commodities especially in the Southern Hemisphere with an emphasis on Argentine and Brazil. Economists also considered the impact of weather patterns arising from the La Nina event especially on South America.

It is accepted that USDA projections for exports will be influenced by the fluid situation relating to tariffs. Estimates of exports are also based on the perceived intentions and needs of China. This Nation sharply curtailed purchases of commodities and especially U.S. soybeans during the 2024-2025 and current market year to date.

CORN

Production parameters for corn were updated from the November WASDE, influenced by actual harvest data projections of domestic use and trade figures. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 crop of 16,752 million bushels, compared to 15,413 million bushels for the previous 2024 record harvest. The “Feed and Residual” category was unchanged from September at 6,100 million bushels. The Food and Seed category was projected at 1,380 million bushels. The Ethanol and Byproducts Category was retained at 5,600 million bushels consistent with estimated demand for E-10 and higher blends for driving needs in fall and winter months. Projected corn exports were raised 3.4 percent to 3,075 million bushels, based on recent orders and shipments. The anticipated ending stock of corn will be 2,154 million bushels or 11.8 percent of projected availability.

he forecast USDA average season farm price for corn in the November WASDE report was 400 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th after the noon November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price for corn was 448 cents per bushel, 12.0 percent above the USDA projection and 5.0 percent above the September 12^th CME price.

SEPTEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projections for the 2025 Corn Harvest:

Average Farm Price: 400 cents per bushel. (up 10 cents per bushel from the September WASDE)

SOYBEANS

Projections for soybeans were updated from the September WASDE, as influenced by harvest data and predicted exports. The November WASDE Report projected a 2025 yield of 53.0 bushels per acre and with reduced area of 81.1 million acres planted compared to 2024. The November WASDE determined the soybean crop to be 4,590 million bushels. Crush volume was retained from September at 2,555 million bushels despite recently increased industry capacity. Projected exports were reduced 3.0 percent to 1,635 million bushels based on the prospect of reduced imports by China following uncertainty over tariffs and diplomatic conflict. Ending stocks were anticipated to be 290 million bushels, down 3.3 percent from the September WASDE. Prior to 2018, China, the largest trading partner for U.S. agricultural commodities, imported the equivalent of 25 percent of U.S. soybeans harvested.

The November USDA WASDE projection for the ex-farm price for soybeans was raised 50 cents per bushel from September to 1,050 cents per bushel. At close of trading on November 18^th following the noon, November 14^th release of the WASDE, the CME spot price was 1,051 cents per bushel, 9.6 percent above the November USDA projection and 10.1 percent above the September 14^th CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection for the 2025 Soybean Harvest:-

Average Farm Price: 1,050 cents per bushel (Up 50 cents per bushel from September)

SOYBEAN MEAL

The projected parameters for soybean meal were retained from September. Production will attain 60.2 million tons, consistent with the static soybean crush volume of 2,555 million bushels. Projected production reflects the stagnant demand for biodiesel despite expanded U.S. crushing capacity. Crush volume is driven both by exports and domestic consumption for livestock feed and for soy oil supplying the food and biodiesel segments. The projection of domestic use was 41.7 million tons. Exports were estimated at 19.2 million tons.

The USDA projected the ex-plant price of soybean meal at $300 up $20 per ton from the September WASDE as an average for the season based on supply and demand considerations. USDA predicted an ending stock of 475,000 tons representing 0.8 percent of supply.

At close of trading on 18^th the CME spot price for soybean meal was $328 per ton, up 9.3 percent compared to the November WASDE projection of $300 per ton and up 13.8 percent from the September CME price.

NOVEMBER 2025 WASDE #665 Projection of Soybean Meal Production and Use

(Quantities in thousand short tons)

Average Price ex plant:  $300 per ton up $20 per ton from September 2025)

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCTION COST

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest higher feed production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

      For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

• The cost of egg production would change by 0.35 cent per doze
• The cost of broiler production would change by 0.30 cent per live pound.

WORLD SITUATION

With respect to world coarse grains and oilseeds the November 2025 WASDE Report included the following appraisals by USDA:-

COARSE GRAINS:

“Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine that are partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom. Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine.

Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons”.

OILSEEDS:

“Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the United States, Ukraine, and India. Sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower production for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey; partly offsetting is higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.3 million tons on higher production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK".

"The global 2025/26 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons due to updates to 2024/25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered for the United States, the EU, and Argentina but higher for Brazil and China. EU ending stocks are lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024/25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024/25 balance sheet includes higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024/25 crush, exports, and ending stocks are raised. China’s 2024/25 ending stocks are increased due to higher imports that are partly offset by higher crush. Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is reduced 1.7 million tons to 365.0 million. Crush is reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush is reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports. Partly offsetting is a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year. Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased 0.2 million tons to 188.0 million. Exports are raised0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the United States, the EU, Ukraine, and India partly offset by higher stocks for China”.

World and U.S. Data Combined for Coarse Grains and Oilseeds:-

*Values rounded to one million metric ton

  (1 metric ton corn= 39.37 bushels. 1 metric ton of soybeans = 36.74 bushels) 

(“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

Following the acquisition by JBS of half the equity of Mantiqueira, a major egg producer in Brazil, the parent company indicated that it would establish a presence in the U.S.  To this end, Murilo Scarpa Pinto, son of Leandro Pinto, the founder of Mantiqueira moved to the U.S. to spearhead the company involvement in the domestic egg industry.  The initial strategy was to purchase an existing large egg company and to concurrently plan and erect a complex of up to two million hens.

This past week JBS USA announced the purchase of the family-owned Hickman’s Egg Ranch headquartered in Arizonia but with a partly-owned subsidiary, Central Valley Eggs located in California.  In announcing the acquisition Wesley Batista Filho CEO of JBS USA  noted, “By partnering with the Pinto Family through MTQ USA, we are creating strong synergies that will enhance collaboration, improve efficiency, and accelerate innovation.”  He added, “We see significant opportunity to deliver more value to customers across the country.”

The acquisition follows the loss to HPAI of almost six million hens comprising the Arizona complexes owned and operated by Hickman’s Egg Ranch. Glenn Hickman , CEO recently stated, “The trauma of going from six million chickens down to nothing in a period of three weeks is more than our family wants to take a chance on again.”

In an interview with a local television station Hickman criticized the USDA policy on control of HPAI stating, “The federal government has declined to become involved and try to figure out solutions and protection for our flocks.”

Given the challenges of restoring the Hickman’s flocks, restructuring and adapting the culture to the corporate requirements of JBS will occupy management in the intermediate term. Accordingly erection of a green field complex in either Utah or Colorado may be deferred.  There will be obvious challenges in applying production practices and policies appropriate to Brazil that will be applicable to the U.S. market.  In addition, much of the expertise of JBS in broiler production and marketing will be inappropriate to the U.S. situation.

The Mantiqueira acquisition of Hickman’s Egg ranch is the second investment by Brazil in the U.S. industry in 2025. Hillandale Farms was acquired in May by Global Eggs S.a.r.l. controlled by entrepreneur Ricardo Faria as a going concern. The two operations, functioning under ownership by companies with roots in Brazil will amount to 26 million hens representing eight percent of the U.S. nominal flock of 325 million hens. 

EGG-NEWS strongly endorses the appeal to U.S. trade officials to establish a policy to ensure  regular availability of vitamins and synthetic amino acids.  According to a study conducted by the Institute for Feed Education and Research of the American Feed Industry Association (AFIA), the U.S. requires approximately 425,000 metric tons of the major essential amino acids and 50,000 metric tons of vitamin supplements to produce 250 million metric tons of feed annually.

At issue is the reliance of the U.S. on the Peoples Republic of China.  Over decades, major additive manufacturers located in the U.S. and the EU established production facilities in China to synthesize vitamins and amino acids. This approach was based on minimizing cost, favorable government support and relative freedom from environmental restraints that exist in Europe and the U.S. Our reliance on China has created vulnerability paralleling the situation with pharmaceuticals and their precursor compounds.

AFIA President and CEO, Constance Cullman stated, “New data now makes it impossible for policymakers to ignore an alarm that has grown too loud and too threatening to dismiss.” Ms. Cullman added, “The animal feed industry appreciates the Trump Administration and lawmaker recent action to discuss this critical issue and is looking forward to working together with others across the food and agriculture value chain to develop risk-and science-based solutions that promote a more reliable stable future food and feed supply.”

Production efficiency, especially for monogastric species would be seriously impaired with shortages of critical ingredients including amino acids, Vitamins D and E and some B Vitamin compounds that currently are supplied almost entirely by China.

Short term solutions include negotiation and leverage using tariffs. Over the intermediate period sourcing from the E.U. or from reputable manufacturers in Asia should reduce reliance on China. Long-term the U.S. must consider onshoring to establish secure supplies of critical ingredients.

The Board and management of the Kroger Co. have reviewed the considerable capital investment made by the previous CEO Rodney McMullen in Ocado mechanized installations functioning as centers for a hub-and-spoke delivery model. The original plan involving equity in the UK provider of automated warehousing involved numerous fixed installations with hub facilities to deliver groceries directly to homes. Given the considerable investment and possibly technical problems encountered with the initial installations have prompted a re-evaluation of policy following the departure of the previous CEO.  Kroger will close three Ocado fulfillment facilities taking a $2.6 billion charge during the third quarter of FY 2025.

The company has now announced a hybrid approach incorporating store-based fulfillment with third-party delivery services but with retention of viable automated fulfillment centers.  Kroger is now working closely with Instacart and DoorDash with the prospect of an affiliation with Uber Eats to combine grocery and meal deliveries.

In retrospect, the McMullen initiative was over-ambitious and incurred high up-front capital costs.  Since the concept was conceived and implemented during the COVID period, there have been profound changes in the grocery market, with a return by consumers to brick-and-mortar locations, the rise in club stores and the growth of alternative delivery systems through increased efficiency and consolidation. These factors reduced the relative ROI from the Ocado fulfillment centers.  The apparent failure of the hub-and-spoke distribution is exemplified by an early initiative by Kroger to enter the Florida grocery area without supermarkets in an attempt to compete with established grocery retailers including Publix.  On face value this approach was highly speculative with reality becoming apparent over the past two years.

The SE outbreak attributed to eggs produced by County Eggs, LLC located in Lucerne Valley, CA. is now officially over.  Laboratory investigations confirmed 105 cases in 14 states with patients ranging in age from infants to 90 years.  It is significant that approximately 20 percent of confirmed cases required hospitalization. Cases extended from January 7^th to August 14^th 2025. Given the known disparity between actual and confirmed cases, CDC estimated that as many as 3,000 consumers may have been affected. 

The outbreak was initially detected using the PulseNet System.  Whole genome sequencing confirmed the commonality of isolates from patients and with trace-back to the implicated farm.  It is significant that the SE isolate involved was resistant to nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, widely used as an antibiotic to treat bacterial infections including salmonellosis.

Given that infected flocks were allowed outside access, County Eggs, LLC will have difficulty in decontaminating soil in the vicinity of houses.  Since the implicated eggs were sold from July through September, it will be interesting to learn of the results of routine mandated environmental sampling since this would denote the sensitivity of current surveillance procedures.  Details of the vaccination status of flocks would also be of interest.

Target has introduced a new policy intended to improve customer satisfaction.  Associates are now encouraged to smile and interact with customers.  If incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke considers this to be the solution to declining sales and traffic, Target will continue to languish in financial performance.  At my local Target Superstore in Durham, NC. where this commentator occasionally shops, smiles from associates would be welcomed if there were in fact associates.  Rows of unmanned checkout stations result in congestion at the few that operate.

According to the November 19^th release of Q3 2025 financials, the company earned $689 million on revenue of $23,270 million with a diluted EPS of $1.51 million.  This compares with Q3 2024 net earnings of $854 million on revenue of $25,668 million with a diluted EPS of $1.85. 

Gross margin was 28.2 percent compared to 28.3 percent in the corresponding third quarter of 2024.  Operating margin declined from 4.4 percent to 3.8 percent. Comparable same store sales were 3.8 percent lower consistent with a 1.5 percent decline in total sales.

In commenting on the quarter, incoming Fiddelke noted, “We continue to focus on the important work to deliver on our three key priorities:  solidifying our merchandizing authority, elevating the shopping experience and further harnessing the power of technology to move at greater pace and consistency.”

Target guidance included a low-single digit decline in sales and full year EPS of $7.70 to $8.70 on a GAAP basis. Litigation, severance settlements and asset charges will reduce diluted EPS to a range of $7.00 to $8.00.

“The law is an ass” declared Dickens’ Mr. Bumble the Beadle, when confronted with an adverse verdict in a breach of promise lawsuit.  This quotation could relate to the scientifically unjustified depopulation of a flock of approximately 350 ostriches in Edgewood, British Columbia during mid-November.

The saga began in December 2024 with mortality among a number of ostriches in the flock leading to an on-site investigation by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA).  Tracheal swabs from a small number of birds yielded H5N1 avian influenza virus.  It is unknown whether the sampled birds were either unaffected, showing clinical signs or were dead. According to Canadian regulations that parallel those in the U.S. “poultry” flocks yielding highly pathogenic avian influenza are subject to depopulation followed by disposal and decontamination with indemnity.

Based on experience in the Republic of South Africa, ostriches are essentially refractory to  clinical HPAI, and it is unknown whether the December 2024 mortality was attributed to this infection or some other cause or an interaction between HPAI and an intercurrent bacterial infection. This is likely given the prevailing weather conditions.  The owners of the flock obviously erred in failing to report mortality to veterinary authorities who followed standard CFIA protocol requiring depopulation.  Generally, ostriches infected with avian influenza cease shedding virus after approximately two weeks at which time circulating antibody can be demonstrated. Depopulating non-shedding ostriches eleven months after an outbreak appears to be an exercise in futility despite the adverse rulings of successive courts interpreting regulations.

Ostrich flock corralled  for depopulation by "marksmen"

The CFIA failed to conduct a serologic survey or to determine the distribution and prevalence of infection among the flock in December 2024.  It is possible that the affected birds were young and devoid of antibody probably present in the older birds, previously subjected to seasonal exposure.  The appropriate action at the time would have been to quarantine the flock, maintain a highly level of biosecurity and conduct weekly sampling for the presence of influenza virus applying PCR assay.  Given that the farm located in Edgewood was remote from any concentrations of commercial poultry the risk of transmission from the farm was negligible.  In any event, since the source of infection was presumably wild birds cohabiting with the ostrich flock their destruction would not have reduced risk to backyard or commercial poultry in the region. Edgewood is located about 70 miles north of the border with Washington State on the Canoe River, located in the Pacific migratory flyway.

The courts cannot be faulted on their rulings that are based on clearly defined regulations that define ostriches as “poultry”.  The unhappy outcome for the healthy birds and their owners is attributed to CFIA intransigence and slavish conformity to regulations relating to the control of avian influenza, seasonally prevalent among poultry flocks.

A public relations campaign mounted by the owners of Universal Ostrich to avert depopulation was ineffective. The intervention of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services was ill-advised and possibly counterproductive.  The claim that the ostriches had been hyper-immunized against specific antigens was a spurious justification to preserve the flock given the rigidity of the CFIA.

The Universal Ostrich episode is an example of apparachiks implementing regulations that should be interpreted based on established scientific principles.  The owners have been deprived of their flock that did not represent any risk to commercial poultry in November 2025. Depopulation did nothing to eradicate HPAI that is constantly introduced on to farms by wild migratory and possibly resident birds.  The futility of this exercise is exemplified by the ongoing outbreaks of HPAI in flocks in a number of Canadian provinces.

 To end with a Dickensian theme, the lyrics of the Broadway show, Oliver based on the eponymous novel, has Fagin stating, “I think I have to think it out again.”  This would be sage advice for the CFIA. They should have recognized the futility of depopulation in November 2025, an action carried out without determining either the infective or antibody status of the flock.

Zoe Rosenberg an exponent of Direction Action Everywhere (DxE) “welfare theater” was found guilty on a number of charges including trespass, theft and conspiracy. The verdict relates to an incident involving illegal intrusion into a Petaluma, CA. Perdue Farms plant. The jury summarily rejected claims of “rescue” and “welfare” to justify her actions

In past years, DxE activists have broken into numerous California poultry facilities and posed a farm or plant employees and committed various misdemeanors and felonies.

It is possible that illegal entry into California farms may have introduced infection or predisposed flocks to pathogens.  There is no morality in stealing poultry from farms in the guise of “rescue”.  The actions of DxE members are intended to generate publicity for their cause and to satisfy an innate compulsion to damage intensive livestock production. 

Advocacy is permissible.  Extreme zealotry resulting in criminal action cannot be condoned.  Members of DxE are entitled to their beliefs and can express their views but only within the law.  Once they cross the line they are no longer activists but criminals.

Mutations affecting pathogenicity and host range of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b represent the potential for emergence of a zoonotic strain.  Studies conducted in South Korea in collaboration with virologists at St. Jude Children’s Hospital have demonstrated cell-mediated systemic dissemination, neural involvement and mortality in a ferret model.

The strain GA/W22-145E/22 derived from a scaup was subjected to molecular evaluation.  The studies demonstrated mutations PB24718 and NP450N.  These changes were responsible for enhanced polymerase activity and replication in both human peripheral blood mononuclear cells and in bovine mammary gland tissue.  The markers that were identified by single cell rNA sequencing in combination with reverse genetics demonstrated that mutations in the PB2 and NP genes can vastly alter pathogenicity.

It is presumed that mutations arose from reassortment of Eurasian 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses with North American low-pathogenicity strains to incorporate gene segments into virus circulating among wild birds with spillover to commercial flocks and dairy herds.

Emergence of enhanced virulence with neurotropism suggest enhanced measures to control and prevent avian influenza in commercial poultry flocks.  The greater the number of birds infected especially on large egg-production complexes and in areas with a high density of turkeys will contribute to the emergence of mutant viruses with increased pathogenicity.

Extensive outbreaks of H5N1 B3-13 strain in dairy herds coupled with devastating mortality among marine mammals should serve as a warning to public health regulators of the risk of H5N1 zoonosis.  The implications of a human outbreak with the costs and disruption as experienced during the COVID pandemic should be considered in relation to current policy relating to control that excludes vaccination of commercial flocks at risk.  Preservation of the current export market for broiler leg quarters is a valid consideration, but the risks and consequences of a human pandemic should be considered in developing a strategy for deployment of vaccines.

In the unfortunate event of extension of H5N1 to human populations, those opposing vaccination based on retention of exports applying spurious scientific interpretations will have to answer to a higher authority.

*Young-Il Kim et al., North American H5N1 viruses with mutations infect immune cells. Science Advances doi:10.1126/sciadv.adv1208 September 2025.