During the year of COVID restrictions, consumers developed new patterns of eating.  Dining out was sacrificed in favor of home-cooked meals. Casual-dining restaurants and QSRs were able to function only with drive-through, pickup and delivery. According to the National Restaurant Association 110,000 locations closed during the pandemic resulting in a loss of revenue of $240 billion.  In contrast, supermarkets and meal-kit suppliers benefited from home consumption with significant improvements in both top and bottom-line results in 2020 and Q1 of 2021. 

The question now facing the food and restaurant sectors is how consumers will respond to the lifting of restrictions. Acosta, a market research company studied consumer intentions in March with the findings published in COVID Dining Journey: Eating at Home and Away from Home.  During the pandemic, 65 percent of shoppers cooked at home with family meals including breakfast, lunch and dinner.  Pre-COVID, 26 percent of adults consumed lunch at home but during 2020 this increased to 40 percent.  The differential was even greater for children who were not at school during the COVID shutdown with more than half consuming lunch at home.  Pre-COVID, 18 percent of families reported eating dinner together compared to 31 percent since the outbreak of COVID.  Before the pandemic, 18 percent of families surveyed consumed dinner at home every day compared to 31 percent of families during the outbreak. 

It is apparent that habits developed during the COVID period will persist at least through 2021.  Seventy-two percent of responding families will continue to eat together and 68 percent will cook meals at home.  More than three quarters will continue purchasing food at the same rate as during COVID restrictions.  The proportion of respondents intending to decrease or cease eating together as a family or cooking meals at home is in the high single digits. In contrast approximately 20 percent intend increasing the frequency of family meals and continuing home cooking with the remainder continuing at the COVID rate.

Despite the increasing proportion of vaccinated individuals in our community, there is a reluctance to dine inside at a restaurant. Only a quarter of respondents plan to eat at a restaurant within a week and 14 percent within a month.  The same proportion will probably wait six months with 16 percent uncertain as to their future patronage of restaurants.  Respondents expressed the view that preparing meals and eating at home represented a challenge based on variety and planning of meals.  Time spent in preparation and cleaning was acceptable during COVID shutdown, but as people return to work, school and university, time will become a limiting factor in the tradeoff among home cooking, eating out and purchasing pre-prepared food.

It is evident that the factors that maintained the balance between home cooking and dining will probably be restored to post-COVID levels with clear distinctions among age demographics. 

The takeaways from the Acosta survey suggests:-

• Supermarket sales will be maintained at a high level
• The range of prepared foods at supermarkets including roasted chicken, salads, and pizzas will be in demand
• Restoration of restaurant patronage will probably be slow, with lower-cost informal dining and high-end formal dining showing the highest rates of recovery
• Providers of meal kits will maintain the higher levels of demand experienced during the COVID shutdown, but will be reliant on relatively low cost, variety and innovation
•  Drive-through lanes at QSRs will supplant in-store eating
•  Home meals may include a combination of store or QSR-purchased center-of-plate items with home cooked sides

It is obvious that restaurants, supermarkets and QSRs will vie for consumers as the Nation transitions from COVID. Sectors that can identify, interpret and respond to trends in their areas of operation will acquire competitive advantages to be reflected in increased sales and hence profit.