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Rabobank Quantifies Impact of ASF

08/29/2019

Rabobank recently released a report entitled African Swine Fever: A Global Update, documenting changes in protein production as a result of outbreaks of African swine fever in Eastern Europe and Asia. Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist for Animal Protein affiliated to RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness considered that it would take at least five years for the most-affected countries, including China and Vietnam to rebuild herds and for their pork production to recover.

This projection by Sherrard probably presumes introduction of an effective and safe vaccine since biosecurity that is abysmally deficient in the areas affected will not be adequate to control and allow subsequent eradication of the infection.

It is also evident that ASF will result in a profound restructuring of pork production with a transition from independent small family-operated farms to large integrations equipped to implement biosecurity and to maintain disease-free herds.