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July Egg Projection

07/17/2019

Updated USDA Projections for 2018 and 2019 U.S. Egg Production

 

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated forecast of egg production on July 17th, following the previous June 17 th report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 2.9 and 2.5 percent respectively compared to 2018 data. Consistent with this disparity, the benchmark New York price was reduced by 38.4 percent in unit value. Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The price elasticity of eggs is denoted by the disparity in the decline in the New York price benchmark relative to forecast volume of production. The latest data is reflected in the table below:-

 

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(actual)

2017

(actual)

2018 2019 Difference % 2020

(actual) (forecast) 2018 to 2019 (projection)

 

 

EGGS

       
 

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,437

7,755

7,952 8,183 +2.9% 8,230

 

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

272.0

279.9

284.0 291.1 +2.5% 291.7

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

138 85 -38.4% 100

                   

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook -July 17th 2019

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.